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Critical Thinking

Never Make a Big Decision Without Doing This First

February 9, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In 1943, General Motors (GM) brought in Peter Drucker to conduct a two-year social-scientific examination of what was then the world’s largest corporation. Drucker conducted many interviews with GM’s corporate leaders, divisional managers, department chiefs, and line workers. He analyzed decision-making and production processes. The resultant landmark study, Concept of the Corporation (1946,) laid the foundations of scientific management as a formal discipline.

One anecdote that Drucker liked to share from his GM research involved how his client, GM supremo Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., generally encouraged disagreements:

During a meeting in which GM’s top management team was considering a weighty decision, Sloan closed the meeting by asking, “Gentlemen, I take it we are all in complete agreement on the decision here?”

Sloan then waited as each member of the assembled committee nodded in agreement.

Sloan continued, “Then, I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what this decision is about.”

Concrete Disagreement Stimulates Thought

Strong leaders encourage their team members to challenge them and question consensus. Leaders so counter the tendency toward synthetic harmony that emanates from group thinking and the risk of unchallenged leadership.

A team member with a difference of opinion or contrary position that’s well rooted in rationale is not to be reprimanded. He may have judgments worth listening to or recommendations worth heeding. Every team needs at least one to keep the team from falling into complacency. A team’s culture shouldn’t shun discouragement and conflict.. Look out, though, for team members who merely pay lip service to allow for the counterargument.

There are three reasons why dissent is needed. It first safeguards the decision maker against becoming the prisoner of the organization. Everybody is special pleader, trying—often in perfectly good faith—to obtain the decision he favors. Second, disagreement alone can provide alternatives to decision. And decision without an alternative is desperate gamblers’ throw, no matter how carefully thought through it might be. Above all, disagreement is needed to stimulate the imagination.

The Best Leaders Encourage Disagreements

Dissent and disagreement are critical to combat confirmation bias—the human tendency to readily seek and accept ostensible facts that match our existing worldview rather than objectively considering alternative viewpoints and unintended consequences.

'Management Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices' by Peter F. Drucker (ISBN 0887306152) What’s worse, leaders tend to surround themselves with like-minded individuals—people they trust and people who think alike. Drucker later wrote in his wide-ranging treatise on Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices (1974,)

Sloan always emphasized the need to test opinions against facts and the need to make absolutely sure that one did not start out with the conclusion and then look for the facts that would support it. But he knew that the right decision demands adequate disagreement.

An effective decision-maker organizes dissent. This protects him against being taken in by the plausible but false or incomplete. It gives him the alternatives so that he can choose and make a decision, but also ensures that he is not lost in the fog when his decision proves deficient or wrong in execution. And it forces the imagination—his own and that of his associates. Dissent converts the plausible into the right and the right into the good decision.

Idea for Impact: The more you encourage healthy debate within your team, the better off you’ll be

The first rule in decision-making should be that you don’t make any decision unless you’ve sought out and contemplated the counterevidence. Consider the other side of any idea as carefully as your own.

Wise leaders proactively seek the truth they don’t want to find. Encourage authentic dissenting opinions to generate more—and better—solutions to problems.

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Filed Under: Managing People, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Conflict, Conversations, Critical Thinking, Leadership Lessons, Social Dynamics, Teams

How to … Pop the Filter Bubble

January 23, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

You’re inclined to be drawn toward those who are similar and wary of those who differ. Similarity bias propels you to unwittingly filter out ideas and opinions that diverge from your own.

Expand your view by actively seeking opposing views. Break your routines. Fraternize with considerate, ‘unlike’-minded people. Remain open to alternative interpretations. Ask big “what if” questions and frame things with an exploratory conjecture: ‘what if we did it this way?,’ ‘do we understand the problem?’ or ‘why doesn’t this work better?’

Putting yourself in a learning and questioning mindset will inspire, stimulate, and challenge you to step out of what you know. Decision-making and creativity will soar.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Conversations, Conviction, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Social Dynamics

Serve the ‘Lazy Grapefruit’

January 16, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

I love grapefruits, but they’re messy. Not quite as messy as eating mangos, though. Peeling a grapefruit also leaves a filmy residue on the hands that doesn’t come off easily, even with soap or hand sanitizer.

A professional chef recently coached me on suprêming a grapefruit. This method is a little time-consuming, but the results—no rind, no pith, no skin, no mess—totally worth it! The chef calls it “Serving the Lazy Grapefruit.”

Now that’s an excellent metaphor.

When you give presentations, especially when you pitch to busy executives, you should serve them the ‘lazy grapefruit.’

Too many presentations are put together like a whole grapefruit—the audience is made to go through the trouble of picking the juiciest fare themselves.

Especially so when you’re presenting to busy executives—they tend to be incredibly impatient and often have little time to weigh options. To present the ‘lazy grapefruit’ is to remove the rind and peel in your presentation from the shell of unnecessary details and then serve the kernel to them in an appealing, easily consumable, least-messy form.

Your audience will relish the clarity provided by anyone who’s made an effort to make the message straightforward.

Boil your message down to the essentials and figure out precisely what they’ll need to know and why it’s important to them, and then lay it out in an orderly and logical manner.

Elevate your presentation. It’s more difficult to make your message simpler, but it’s worth the effort.

Idea for Impact: Do the thinking so your audience doesn’t have to.

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Filed Under: Effective Communication, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Communication, Critical Thinking, Meetings, Persuasion, Presentations, Thought Process

Our 10 Most Popular Articles of 2022

December 30, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Here are our most popular exclusive features of 2022. Pass this on to your friends; if they like these, they can sign up to receive our RSS feeds.

  • Choose a better response. Don’t accept reflexive reactions. Instead, learn to know there is a “space” before responding.
  • To be more productive, try doing less. The best way to get lots of things done is to not do them at all.
  • The good of working for a micromanager: be aware of the details your manager cares about and expect to learn a lot.
  • A hack to resist temptation: commit to not giving in for 15 minutes. Even a simple distraction can break the trance.
  • Get good at things by being bad first. If you aren’t willing to be bad initially, you’ll never get started on anything new.
  • Get rid of relationship clutter. Make room for more supportive and nurturing relationships.
  • Don’t be a prisoner of the hurt done to you. While you are the victim of another who has caused you some suffering, she herself is also a victim of suffering.
  • Nothing like a word of encouragement to provide a lift. Everyone needs hope. Look for honest ways to offer even a little nudge of encouragement.
  • The secret to happiness in relationships is lowering your expectations. You’d be happier to accept other people’s difficult behaviors when you expect less from them.
  • Cancel culture has a condescension problem. If we can’t stand up for the right to speech that we dislike, why keep the right to the speech we do like?

And here are some articles of yesteryear that continue to be popular:

  • Lessons on adversity from Charlie Munger
  • If you’re looking for bad luck, you’ll soon find it
  • The power of negative thinking
  • Fight ignorance, not each other
  • The Fermi Rule & Guesstimation
  • Don’t let small decisions destroy your productivity
  • How smart companies get smarter
  • How to manage smart, powerful leaders
  • Care less for what other people think
  • Expressive writing can help you heal
  • Accidents can happen when you least expect

We wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2023!

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Be Smart by Not Being Stupid

December 12, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

No superhuman ability is usually required to dodge the many foolish choices to which we’re prone. A few basic rules are all that’s needed to shield you, if not from all errors, from silly errors.

Charlie Munger often emphasizes that minimizing mistakes may be one of the least appreciated tricks in successful investing. He has reputedly credited much of Berkshire Hathaway’s success to consistently avoiding stupidity. “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage we have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent.” And, “I think part of the popularity of Berkshire Hathaway is that we look like people who have found a trick. It’s not brilliance. It’s just avoiding stupidity.” They’ve avoided investing in situations they don’t understand or summon experience.

As a policy, avoiding stupidity in investing shouldn’t mean avoiding risk wholly; instead, it’s taking on risk only when there’s a fair chance that you’ll be adequately rewarded for assuming that risk.

Idea for Impact: Tune out stupidity. Becoming successful in life isn’t always about what you do but what you don’t do. In other words, improving decision quality is often more about decreasing your chances of failure than increasing your chances of success.

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The Creativity of the Unfinished

December 8, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Don’t dot every I and cross every T. Leave a stone unturned.

Ignore a rule. Don’t tie up every loose end.

Leave some questions unanswered. Let something be out of place.

Violate the expectation and usher a realm of potentiality. As the American artist Julia Cameron noted in her seminal self-help book The Artist’s Way: A Spiritual Path to Higher Creativity (1992,) “Art needs time to incubate, to sprawl a little, to be ungainly and misshapen and finally emerge as itself. The ego hates this fact. The ego wants instant gratification and the addictive hit of an acknowledged win.”

A piece of art, a movie, a melodic line, or a production all tend to be more captivating when they leave you wondering—when they urge you to explore the possibilities your mind has to offer.

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Lessons from the Japanese Decision-Making Process

November 10, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Japanese firms traditionally use the ringi seido (“request for approval system”) to make critical decisions. A proposal is circulated to appropriate people, advancing from lower to higher ranks. As the proposal works through the management layers before landing at the top, each participant puts their stamp (the hanko) on the document.

This collective consensus process allows for a greater number of reasonable alternatives to be considered and for the risk to be spread. Although it may be slow, the implementation is faster once the decision is made. (Since the early ’90s, Toyota has followed a “three-stamp movement,” restricting the number of people needing to approve a proposal to three.)

Unlike consensus management in the west, the ringi system is often used to appease factions in an institution. Given the Japanese norms (nemawashi) of social structure and intercultural communication, everybody tends to be very diplomatic when giving an opinion. A decision isn’t made if unanimity isn’t reached.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Effective Communication, Leading Teams Tagged With: Conflict, Critical Thinking, Japan, Meetings, Persuasion, Presentations, Teams, Thought Process

Are You Ill-Prepared for Being Wrong?

October 31, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

We spend so much of our lives being right that, I wonder if, we’re ill-prepared for being wrong.

Since childhood, we’ve been inured that being right is more acceptable than being wrong. Being wrong feels so unpleasant—repulsive even—that we instill a series of strategies to salvage ourselves when we are exposed as being wrong. We learn to trip from our forked tongues explanations, justifications, excuses, and blames for our errors and oversights.

What’s worse, we develop a deep-seated impulse to shirk responsibility and accountability for our actions. We become loath to change our beliefs or behaviors because change takes effort. We envisage change as a challenge to our identity. In the words of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, “People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. They wake up and re-analyze things and change their mind. If you don’t change your mind frequently, you’re going to be wrong a lot. People who are right a lot want to disconfirm their fundamental biases.”

Idea for Impact: What’s lost in all this is that being wrong is not only a central feature of being human. It’s one of the most potent ways of learning. Admitting we were wrong—and conceding we’ll be wrong again—can be so liberating and welcoming.

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  4. How To … Be More Confident in Your Choices
  5. 3 Ways to … Avoid Overthinking

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Confidence, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Wisdom

3 Ways to … Manage for Creativity

October 21, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Managers can create the conditions for innovation by encouraging a culture of being creative—not just productive—and razing barriers that stifle individual expression.

  1. Get less formal. Foster a culture characterized by a tolerance for failure and a willingness to experiment. Involve everyone and welcome great ideas from everywhere. Make sure everyone feels free to speak out: people will own solutions if they’ve been involved in the decision-making.
  2. Simplify the workplace. Look at things with a fresh eye, as an outsider might—sometimes you’re too close to things to see the truth. Drop unnecessary work, and explore what routines can be phased out or improved. Work with coworkers to eliminate extraneous loops and redundancies if your organization has far too many rules, approvals, and forms. Streamline decision-making.
  3. Defy tradition. If no one can recall why your team does something a particular way, the task is likely more convoluted than it needs to be. Hold a ‘why do we do it that way?’ challenge. Invite colleagues from different teams to come in and look at things in a detached way. Figure out what’s relevant and necessary (and what’s not) and frequently reevaluate the priority list as new things are added.

Idea for Impact: Managing for creativity is a conscious effort in experimentation.

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3 Ways to … Avoid Overthinking

October 17, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Overthinking and over-analyzing the causes and meaning of your thoughts can be tamed through greater self-awareness and mental disengagement.

  1. Set a time limit for your “thinking time,” then make yourself move on to something else or force your decision. Vent your worries to the world, but there’s a risk that you’ll end up even more confused if you keep asking everyone’s opinion. Most of the time, things aren’t as complicated as you perceive them.
  2. Pause and take a step back. Interrupt the thinking process or distract yourself by diverting your attention to something very different. Focused distraction can calm your mind and help you have a coherent view of the whole situation.
  3. Accept that uncertainty is part of this life, and you’ll never have all the facts or know what’s further down the road. Studies suggest we fear an unknown outcome more than a known bad one. Not everything you plan will work out, and that’s ok. It’s often better to set a clear course today and tackle problems that arise tomorrow.

Idea for Impact: Right-size your expectations. Overthinking comes from trying to control what you can’t control.

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  4. Situational Blindness, Fatal Consequences: Lessons from American Airlines 5342
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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Confidence, Conviction, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Thinking Tools, Wisdom

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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