Nagesh Belludi

Incentives Matter

September 11, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi 2 Comments

Incentives are Powerful Extrinsic Motivators

The bedrock premise of economics is that incentives matter. This is a powerful device because it applies to almost everything that humans do.

Changes in incentives—monetary and nonmonetary—can sway human behavior in foreseeable ways.

For instance, if a resource becomes more expensive or scarce, people will be less likely to choose it. Higher prices will reduce the quantity of goods sold. Fewer people visit outdoor recreational areas on chilly and rainy days. Whenever fuel prices soar through the roof over a prolonged period, consumers buy less gasoline—they eliminate less important trips, carpool more, and purchase fuel-efficient cars.

Incentives Shape Behavior

If the payback from a specific choice increases, people are more likely to choose it. Students focus in classes when their professors declare what course material will be on the examinations. Pedestrians are more prone to leaning down and picking up a quarter than they would a penny. Traditional incentive systems for executives give rise to corporate “short-termism”—executives’ annual bonuses are often awarded for achieving targets that are insubstantially linked to long-term value creation.

Incentives shape behavior. The economics of wrongdoing and crime suggest that fines be increased to offset the rewards from lawbreaking—for example, traffic fines for speeding are typically doubled in construction zones. Ryanair, Ireland’s pioneering discount airline, purposefully uses exasperating fees for checked bags, airport check-ins, and printing boarding passes to “reshape passenger behavior” and focus on getting passengers punctually to their destinations with the least overhead costs.

Incentives Can Backfire Even If Launched with the Best of Intentions

The “incentives matter” framework of economics explains why bad behavior happens whenever the payoff for such behavior is high and the odds of getting caught and reprimanded are low.

People will scheme—even perpetrate fraud—to achieve the incentives they’re offered. If targets are impracticable and employees realize that they can achieve those targets by cheating, then they will cheat.

Incentive structures are partially to blame for the recent Wells Fargo accounts scandal. Even if Wells Fargo established incentive arrangements with the best of intentions, it tied a substantial percentage of employee compensation to immoderate sales targets. This compelled employees to open millions of sham bank accounts and credit cards in customers’ names, infringing on their trust, and costing them millions of dollars in fees for services they did not willingly sign-up for. As this case makes obvious, incentives intended to stimulate people to do their best can sometimes push them to do their worst.

Idea for Impact: A Little Incentive Goes a Long Way

Incentives matter. They influence choices that humans make. Changes in incentives influence their choices. However, designing effective incentives is a painstakingly difficult problem. Do not underestimate or ignore potential undesired results—increase in dishonest behavior, over-focus on one area while overlooking other parts of the business, imprudent risk-taking, deterioration of organizational culture, and diminished intrinsic motivation.

Inspirational Quotations #701

September 10, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

A celebrity is a person who works hard all his life to become well known, then wears dark glasses to avoid being recognized.
—Fred Allen (American Humorist)

He who is aware of his folly is wise.
—Yiddish Proverb

Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make.
—Bill Veeck (American Sportsperson)

It is inevitable that some defeat will enter even the most victorious life. The human spirit is never finished when it is defeated… it is finished when it surrenders.
—Ben Stein (American Lawyer)

You will get all you want in life, if you help enough other people get what they want.
—Zig Ziglar (American Author)

Appreciative words are the most powerful force for good on earth!
—George W. Crane (American Psychologist)

Love has a way of finding you when you stop seeking it and start being it.
—Mastin Kipp

As long as the world shall last there will be wrongs, and if no man objected and no man rebelled, those wrongs would last forever.
—Clarence Darrow (American Lawyer)

For the world is in a bad state, but everything will become still worse unless each of us does his best.
—Viktor Frankl (Austrian Physician)

Trouble shared is trouble halved.
—Dorothy L. Sayers (British Novelist)

What a grand thing it is to be clever and have common sense.
—Terence (Ancient Roman Playwright)

A good conversationalist is not one who remembers what was said, but says what someone wants to remember.
—John Mason Brown (American Columnist)

Bullets cannot be recalled. They cannot be uninvented. But they can be taken out of the gun.
—Martin Amis (American Novelist)

There is no easy walk to freedom anywhere, and many of us will have to pass through the valley of the shadow of death again and again before we reach the mountaintop of our desires.
—Nelson Mandela (South African Political leader)

What I cannot create, I do not understand.
—Richard Feynman (American Physicist)

The most precious gift we can offer others is our presence. When mindfulness embraces those we love, they will bloom like flowers.
—Thich Nhat Hanh (Vietnamese Buddhist Religious Leader)

In all your gettings, get wisdom.
—Anonymous

To be a critic is easier than to be an author.
—Hebrew Proverb

Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence.
—Vince Lombardi (American Sportsperson)

Seek Fame by Associating with the Famous?

September 8, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Dale Carnegie (1888–1955,) the author of the perennial self-help best seller How to Win Friends and Influence People, wasn’t related to the Scottish-American steel magnate and philanthropist Andrew Carnegie (1835–1919.)

However, Dale Carnegie changed the spelling of his last name from “Carnagey” at a time when Andrew Carnegie was a widely recognized name.

Dale Carnegie was born Dale Carnagay on a Missouri farm. After trying his luck as a salesman and as a failed actor, Carnagay moved to New York and began teaching public speaking at the Young Men’s Christian Association (YMCA.) His courses got popular and, in time, Carnagay opened his own office in the Carnegie House, adjacent to the famous Carnegie Hall, which is named after Andrew Carnegie, who funded its construction.

Shrewd marketing indeed!

Death to Bureaucracy

September 6, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Bureaucracy can suck the life out of any organization by rewarding complacency and inertia.

Efficient managers are annoyed with the speed of bureaucracy. Internal rules and policies for making and approving decisions slow down managerial undertakings. In a world where fast, disruptive innovation has become foremost, any company can ill afford the time or expense of operating with bureaucratic mindsets.

Management pioneer Peter Drucker’s enduring condemnation of bureaucracy, formalities, and rules and regulations hit the peak with his ground-breaking editorial called “Sell the Mailroom,” first published in the Wall Street Journal in 1989 and then republished in 2005.

At a time when the great majority of businesses were engaged in making an effort to improve the efficiency of support staff, Drucker brashly advocated that bureaucratic support should be eliminated by outsourcing their work to outside contractors. Drucker observed,

In-house service and support activities are de facto monopolies. They have little incentive to improve their productivity. There is, after all, no competition. In fact, they have considerable disincentive to improve their productivity. In the typical organization, business or government, the standard and prestige of an activity is judged by its size and budget—particularly in the case of activities that, like clerical, maintenance, and support work, do not make a direct and measurable contribution to the bottom line. To improve the productivity of such an activity is thus hardly the way to advancement and success. When in-house support staff are criticized for doing a poor job, their managers are likely to respond by hiring more people. An outside contractor knows that he will be tossed out and replaced by a better-performing competitor unless he improves quality and cuts costs.

Idea for Impact: Drop unnecessary work.

How to Learn Anything Fast // Book Summary of Josh Kaufman’s ‘The First 20 Hours’

September 4, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Every Discipline, Hobby, or Sport Has Its Learning Curve

One of your core productivity principles should be to learn to do things to a good-enough level—but not to perfection.

In the pursuit of self-improvement, when you start to study a field, it seems like you have to learn hundreds of principles and skills. If you’re interested in no more than gaining an adequate amount of fluency in any skill, you have only to identify the crucial few core principles, learn them, and diligently practice them “in the trenches.”

According to self-described “learning addict” Josh Kaufman’s The First 20 Hours: How to Learn Anything… Fast, with a bit of strategy, you can learn just about any skill to a sufficient level with twenty hours of focused effort:

In my experience, it takes around twenty hours of practice … to go from knowing absolutely nothing about what you’re trying to do to performing noticeably well. … It doesn’t matter whether you want to learn a language write a novel, paint a portrait, start a business, or fly an airplane. If you invest as little as twenty hours in learning the basics of the skill, you’ll be surprised at how good you can become.

Learning is Fun but it is also Dedicated Work

One of the real challenges for rapid skill acquisition, according to The First 20 Hours, is to get past the beginner’s blockade, which is the frustration that occurs when learning something new doesn’t come as naturally as you’d hoped for. The solution is to build in focused learning time into your daily routine.

Make dedicated time for practice. The time you spend acquiring a new skill must come from somewhere. Unfortunately, we tend to want to acquire new skills and keep doing many of the other activities we enjoy, like watching TV, playing video games, et cetera. “I’ll get around to it, when I find the time,” we say to ourselves. Here’s the truth: “finding” time is a myth. No one ever “finds” time for anything, in the sense of miraculously discovering some bank of extra time, like finding a twenty-dollar bill you accidentally left in your coat pocket. If you rely on finding time to do something, it will never be done. If you want to find time, you must make time.

The First 20 Hours tells you how to use the initial learning time to maximum effect and have as steep a learning curve as possible. To learn a skill, you must deconstruct the skill into its constituent subskills and learn enough about each subskill to be able to practice effectively and self-correct. For instance, Kaufman finds a shortcut to learning how to play the ukulele by memorizing the three chords needed for the majority of songs, which happen to be C, F, and G.

How to Learn Anything Faster

The first three rambling chapters of The First 20 Hours introduce many general principles of rapid skill acquisition and effective learning. The six succeeding chapters give Kaufman’s firsthand accounts of how he applied these principles to learn yoga, programming, touch-typing, a Chinese board game called Go, ukulele, and windsurfing. The chief takeaways from these chapters are,

Study, by itself, is never enough. If you want to get good at anything where real-life performance matters, you have to practice that skill in context.
Invest your limited time on the sub-skills with most payback and avoid those elements of the skill that are non-essential.
Create mental models and checklists for remembering the things you need to do each time you practice. It helps make the learning process more efficient.

Recommendation: Skim Josh Kaufman’s The First 20 Hours: How to Learn Anything… Fast. Start with the author’s TED video and then speed-read the first three chapters (39 pages) and the prologues. Read the subsequent six chapters only if the subject matter particular skills fascinate you—these monotonous chapters expose the many nuances of the trial and error in the course of learning.

Inspirational Quotations #700

September 3, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Age is not a particularly interesting subject. Anyone can get old. All you have to do is live long enough.
—Groucho Marx (American Actor)

He abused me, he beat me, he defeated me, he robbed me,–in those who do not harbour such thoughts hatred will cease.
—The Dhammapada (Buddhist Anthology of Verses)

Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.
—Vince Lombardi (American Sportsperson)

The guilty think all talk is of themselves.
—Geoffrey Chaucer (English Poet)

There are compensations for growing older. One is the realization that to be sporting isn’t at all necessary. It is a great relief to reach this stage of wisdom.
—Cornelia Otis Skinner (American Dramatist)

You can never get enough of the things you don’t need, because the things you don’t need can never satisfy.
—Marvin J. Ashton (American Mormon Religious Leader)

All paths are present, always… and we can but choose among them.
—Jacqueline Carey (American Novelist)

Man is the creature of circumstances.
—Robert Owen (British Social Reformer)

Be tough where you must be, kind where you can be.
—Marty Nemko (American Career Coach, Author)

Spirituality is neither the privilege of the poor nor the luxury of the rich. It is the choice of the wise man.
—Swami Chinmayananda (Indian Hindu Teacher)

Good ideas are not adopted automatically. They must be driven into practice with courageous patience.
—Hyman G. Rickover (American Military Leader)

That is true wisdom, to know how to alter one’s mind when occasion demands it.
—Terence (Ancient Roman Playwright)

A man must be obedient to the promptings of his innermost heart.
—Robertson Davies (Canada Journalist)

Doubt is the incentive to truth and inquiry leads the way.
—Hosea Ballou (American Universalist Clergyman)

The more specific and measurable your goal, the more quickly you will be able to identify, locate, create, and implement the use of the necessary resources for its achievement.
—Charles J. Givens (American Self-Help Writer)

An Old Joke about Accounting and Leadership

September 1, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

A man in a hot air balloon gets lost over Nebraska. He has no idea where he is or where he is going. He does not see anybody… nothing but farmland as far as the eye can see.

Eventually, he sees a woman down in a field. He goes down and cries out to her, “Where am I? I’m already an hour late for an appointment!”

She hollers back, “You’re at 42 degrees 15 minutes and 4 seconds North latitude and 98 degrees 12 minutes 15 seconds West longitude.”

The man yells out, “You must be an accountant.”

“Hmm … how did you guess?”

“Your information is absolutely precise and accurate … but totally useless.”

“You must be an executive.”

“Yes … but how do you know?”

“You’re higher up, you do not know where you are, you do not know where you’re going, you’re over-scheduled, and you blame your subordinates—someone below you.”

Reference: A Year with Peter Drucker by Joseph A. Maciariello

Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking

August 30, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi 8 Comments

Many High-IQ People Tend to Be Overthinkers: They Incessantly Overanalyze Everything

There’s this old Zen parable that relates how over-analysis is a common attribute of intelligent people.

A Zen master was resting with his quick-witted disciple. At one point, the master took a melon out of his bag and cut it in half for the two of them to eat.

In the middle of the meal, the enthusiastic disciple said, “My wise teacher, I know everything you do has a meaning. Sharing this melon with me may be a sign that you have something to teach me.”

The master continued eating in silence.

“I understand the mysterious question in your silence,” insisted the student. “I think it is this: the excellent taste of this melon that I am experiencing … is the taste on the melon or on my tongue …”

The master still said nothing. The disciple got a bit frustrated at his master’s apparent indifference.

The disciple continued, ” … and like everything in life, this too has meaning. I think I’m closer to the answer; the pleasure of the taste is an act of love and interdependence between the two, because without the melon there wouldn’t be an object of pleasure and without pleasure …”

“Enough!” exclaimed the master. “The biggest fools are those who consider themselves the most intelligent and seek an interpretation for everything! The melon is good; please let this be enough. Let me eat it in peace!”

Intelligence Can Sometimes Be a Curse

The tendency to reason and analyze is a part of human nature. It is a useful trait for discerning the many complexities of life. It’s only natural that you could go overboard some times and over-analyze a point or an issue to such a degree that the objective becomes all but moot.

Don’t get me wrong. Intelligence is indeed a gift. But intelligence can trick you into thinking you should be overthinking and calculating everything you do. The more intelligent you are, the more investigative you will be. The more your brain analyzes people and events, the more time it will spend on finding flaws in everything.

Intelligent People Overanalyze Everything, Even When it Doesn’t Matter

Many intelligent people tend to be perfectionists. Their overanalysis often cripples their productivity, especially by leading them to undesirable, frustrating, and low-probability conclusions that can limit their ability to understand reality and take meaningful risks.

Intelligent people are too hard on themselves and others—family, friends, and co-workers. They can’t settle for anything less than perfect. They tend to be less satisfied with their achievements, their relationships, and practically everything that has a place in their life. What is more, many people with speculative minds hold idealistic views of the world and lack a sound acumen about coping with the practical world.

Idea for Impact: Don’t Make Everything Seem Worse Than it Actually is!

Thinking too much about things isn’t just a nuisance for you and others around you; it can take a toll on your well-being and on your relationships.

Check your tendency to overthink and overanalyze everything. Don’t twist and turn every issue in your head until you’ve envisaged the issue from all perspectives.

Sometimes it does help to overthink and be cautious about potential risks and downfalls. But most times, it’s unnecessary to ruminate excessively. Don’t make everything seem worse than it actually is. Set limits and prioritize. Learn to let go and manage your expectations.

To avoid overthinking, use my 5-5-5 technique. Ask yourself if your decision will matter 5 weeks, 5 months, and 5 years in the future. If your answer is ‘no,’stop stressing yourself out!

The Fermi Rule: Better be Approximately Right than Precisely Wrong

August 28, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

What’s the size of the market for razors in China? How many golf balls does it take to fill a Boeing 747 aircraft? How many piano tuners are there in the world?

Non-standard problems such as these are called “Fermi problems” after the distinguished Italian-American nuclear physicist Enrico Fermi (1901–54.) Fermi delighted not only in creating and solving them, but also in challenging his fellow scientists with similar problems.

Physicist Enrico Fermi Was a Master of Guesstimation

Fermi was celebrated for his ability to make fast, excellent approximate calculations with little or no concrete data. In one well-known example, when the first atomic bomb was detonated during the Manhattan Project, Fermi dropped a few scraps of paper as the shock wave from the detonation passed. After some coarse calculation, Fermi estimated the power of the blast from the motion of the scraps as they fell. Fermi’s guesstimate of 10 kilotons of TNT was remarkably close to the now-established value of 20 kilotons. Even though Fermi’s estimate appears 50% off, it was a reasonable order-of-magnitude estimate.

Fermi believed that the ability to guesstimate was an essential skill for physicists. A good way to solve physics problems—and complex problems in any line of work—is by coming up with simple shortcuts to make approximate, but meaningful, calculations.

Teaching Physics Students the Fermi Way of Contemplating Open, Non-Standard Problems

Based on Fermi’s technique, at the beginning of many physics courses, professors pose problems such as “how many piano tuners are there in Chicago?” Such questions require students to employ quick reasoning and unsophisticated numerical methods to attack problems without the knowledge of any core physics concepts.

The historical emphasis on the order-of-magnitude calculation was propelled by the lack of computing power available to solve complex problems. Such approximate calculations were considered necessary to decide if an onerous and lengthy full-blown calculation was required.

Classic Fermi Problem: Number of Piano Tuners in the City of Chicago

Fermi problems are typically restructured by breaking them up into smaller problems that are easier for the students to approach than the original problem.

The challenge of estimating the number of piano tuners in the city of Chicago is the classical example of a Fermi Problem. A problem-solver guesstimates the total population of Chicago, then the fraction of families in Chicago that may own a piano, and the frequency of piano-tuning, the time it takes to tune a piano, and so on. This sequence of thinking, accompanied by a few conversion factors, can lead to an adequate assessment of the number of piano tuners in Chicago.

Back-of-Envelope Calculations for Fermi Problems

The Fermi technique is so popular that math buffs organize competitions in Fermi’s honor. Contestants are asked to estimate unusual assessments (the fraction of the surface area of the United States that’s covered by automobiles, the number of cells in the human body, the number of pizzas ordered this year in the state of California, for example) as closely as they can.

One distinctive feature of Fermi problems is that precision is impossible to achieve quickly, but it’s easier to arrive at a fast estimate of the range for the right answer. Before investing a big effort to measure something with precision, problem-solvers can estimate the answer approximately—and only then determine if it’s sensible to do the extra steps to calculate the accurate answers.

The Ability to Guesstimate: A Key Problem-Solving Aptitude

The ability to reach first-order estimations is an important skill in daily life. In a world where we are continuously bombarded with qualitative and quantitative information (and disinformation,) acquiring a solid grounding in numeric literacy has almost become an important intellectual obligation.

Many problems are too complicated for you to come up with an accurate answer immediate. In analyzing such problems, precision may be impossible, but you can quickly estimate a range for the right answer. Guesstimation enables anyone with basic math and science skills to estimate virtually anything quickly using realistic assumptions and elementary mathematics.

Microsoft, McKinsey Consulting, Google, Goldman Sachs, and many leading businesses use guesstimate questions in job interviews to judge the ability of the applicants’ intelligence, their flexibility to think on their feet, and to apply their numerical skills to real-world problems.

Idea for Impact: Use Effective Guesstimation Techniques Before Undertaking a More Complete and Formal Investigation

Learn to do a first approximation of value and then, if the problem merits, refine your estimate further for much nuanced decision-making. Before putting much effort into calculating anything with precision, make a rough estimate of the answer, then decide whether it’s worth investigating further.

In my line of work as an investor, for example, I use fund manager Eddy Elfenbein’s “simple stock valuation measure”:

Growth Rate/2 + 8 = PE Ratio

Let me emphasize that this is simply a quick-and-dirty valuation tool and it shouldn’t be used as a precise measure of a stock’s value. But when I’m first looking at a stock and want to see roughly how it’s priced, this is what I’ll use.

For example, let’s look at Pfizer ($PFE). Wall Street expects the company to earn $2.34 per share next year. They also see the company’s 5-year growth rate at 2.79%. If we take half the growth rate and add 8, that gives us a fair value P/E Ratio of 9.40. Multiplying that by the $2.34 estimate gives us a fair price for Pfizer of $21.98. The current price for Pfizer is $22.98, so it’s about fairly priced.

Let’s look at IBM ($IBM) which has a higher growth rate. Wall Street sees IBM earning $16.61 next year. They peg the five-year growth rate at 10.58%. Our formula gives us a fair value multiple of 13.29, and that multiplied by $16.61 works out to a value of $220.75. IBM is currently at $201.71.

Recommended Resources for Guesstimation

If you’re interviewing with one of those companies that use guesstimate questions in job interviews, or if you’re interested in developing your ability to make rough, common-sense estimates starting from just a few basic facts, I recommend the following learning resources:

Guesstimation: Solving the World’s Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin by Lawrence Weinstein and John A. Adam is a fun introduction to guesstimation.
Sanjoy Mahajan teaches a course on “down-and-dirty, opportunistic problem solving” at MIT. His Art of Approximation in Science and Engineering course is accessible free of charge on OpenCourseWare. Mahajan has also written the resourceful textbook Street-Fighting Mathematics: The Art of Educated Guessing and Opportunistic Problem Solving.

Inspirational Quotations #699

August 27, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

We never make a decision. When the time is right, the decision makes itself.
—Byron Katie (American Speaker)

By correcting our mistakes, we get wisdom. By defending our faults, we betray an unsound mind.
—Buddhist Teaching

The rich add riches to riches; the poor add years to years.
—Chinese Proverb

He who wants a rose must respect the thorn.
—Persian Proverb

The tests of life are not meant to break you, but to make you.
—Norman Vincent Peale (American Clergyman, Self-Help Author)

Look before you leap.
—Common Proverb

Perfect happiness is the absence of striving for happiness.
—Zhuang Zhou (Chinese Philosopher)

Is any man free except the one who can pass his life as he pleases?
—Persius (Roman Poet)

Philosophy of science is about as useful to scientists as ornithology is to birds.
—Richard Feynman (American Physicist)

The true battlefield is within.
—Mohandas K. Gandhi (Indian Hindu Political leader)

The desire for more and more wealth is dangerous. Cultivate the good sense to give up your desires. Wealth is the result of past deeds. Therefore be content with what you have.
—Adi Shankaracharya (Indian Hindu Philosopher)

The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will.
—Vince Lombardi, Jr.

Suffering cheerfully endured, ceases to be|suffering and is transmuted into an ineffable joy.
—Mohandas K. Gandhi (Indian Hindu Political leader)

When you think you can nail someone with your argument, take a breath & see if you can phrase it as a face-saving question.
—Marty Nemko (American Career Coach, Author)

If we divine a discrepancy between a man’s words and his character, the whole impression of him becomes broken and painful; he revolts the imagination by his lack of unity, and even the good in him is hardly accepted.
—Charles Cooley (American Sociologist)

The laughter of girls is, and ever was, among the delightful sounds of earth.
—Thomas de Quincey (English Essayist)

Every man who has become great owes his achievement to incessant toil.
—Mokshagundam Visvesvaraya (Indian Engineer)

Self-understanding, like happiness, is never fully achieved. It’s an on-going pursuit and sometimes excessive explicit focus hurts the cause.
—Ben Casnocha (American Entrepreneur, Investor)

Where your heart is, there your heart be.
—The Holy Bible (Scripture in the Christian Faith)

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Nagesh Belludi

Incentives are Powerful Extrinsic Motivators

Incentives Shape Behavior

Incentives Can Backfire Even If Launched with the Best of Intentions

Idea for Impact: A Little Incentive Goes a Long Way

Wondering what to read next?

Wondering what to read next?

Wondering what to read next?

Every Discipline, Hobby, or Sport Has Its Learning Curve

Learning is Fun but it is also Dedicated Work

How to Learn Anything Faster

Wondering what to read next?

Wondering what to read next?

Many High-IQ People Tend to Be Overthinkers: They Incessantly Overanalyze Everything

Intelligence Can Sometimes Be a Curse

Intelligent People Overanalyze Everything, Even When it Doesn’t Matter

Idea for Impact: Don’t Make Everything Seem Worse Than it Actually is!

Wondering what to read next?

Physicist Enrico Fermi Was a Master of Guesstimation

Teaching Physics Students the Fermi Way of Contemplating Open, Non-Standard Problems

Classic Fermi Problem: Number of Piano Tuners in the City of Chicago

Back-of-Envelope Calculations for Fermi Problems

The Ability to Guesstimate: A Key Problem-Solving Aptitude

Idea for Impact: Use Effective Guesstimation Techniques Before Undertaking a More Complete and Formal Investigation

Recommended Resources for Guesstimation

Wondering what to read next?