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Critical Thinking

Be Open to Being Wrong

March 22, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The philosopher and logician Bertrand Russell, one of history’s brightest minds, was once asked whether he’d be prepared to die for his beliefs. He replied, “Of course not. After all, I may be wrong.”

Feeling that you’re making more sense than others shouldn’t be the gauge for being accurate about your convictions. Especially when you’re good at arguing, you can take your ideas and judgments in various directions that will mislead you in ways that are more convincing to you than what the other side thinks. Blind spots can spawn certainty quickly.

Idea for Impact: Hold yourself to a higher standard. Turn doubt into a deliberate attitude. Allow your mind to wander in unexpected directions. Be open to other perspectives. Be open to being wrong.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Conviction, Critical Thinking, Questioning, Wisdom

Confirm Key Decisions in Writing

March 9, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

All human dealings are subject to intended and (largely) unintended misunderstandings and misinterpretations. In fact, when an agreement is distasteful, it’s easy to misunderstand.

Confirm oral agreements, instructions, and understandings in writing at the first chance you get. Don’t rely on just memory.

After meetings, email all the participants recording what was discussed. That way, if there’s ever a debate about what was discussed in the meeting, there is a written record to review. Do this even for phone calls if what was discussed is important. A helpful template:

I am confirming the agreement we reached at our meeting this afternoon. We decided on the following provisions: A, B, and C. Let me know as soon as possible if this information is not accurate so we can finalize this part of our negotiations. Call me to discuss any necessary changes if this doesn’t reflect your understanding.

Idea for Impact: “If it wasn’t written down, it wasn’t said.” Documenting critical decisions—your interpretation of it at least—helps avoid future fracas. If you don’t receive a written protest or correction, your account of the meeting stands accepted.

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Filed Under: Effective Communication, Managing People, Mental Models Tagged With: Assertiveness, Conflict, Conversations, Critical Thinking, Leadership Lessons, Negotiation, Persuasion, Problem Solving

Three Rules That Will Decide If You Should Automate a Task

March 6, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

To check if a process or a workstream is a good candidate for being automated, see if it meets all three of these criteria:

  1. The process must be a well-oiled machine. The requirements and outcomes are well established. Is the process stable enough to be automated?
  2. The process doesn’t need someone to engage with it each time. It doesn’t need manual intervention, oversight, excessive customization, or finesse. It runs in the backdrop; it’s boring and doesn’t require ‘higher-order’ thinking. Are there decision points within the process that require human intervention?
  3. The process is time-consuming. By automating it, will you save at least 4x what you’ll invest in automating it?

If the manual process is broken or doesn’t exist, then automating it before it’s a “well-oiled machine” may lead to mistakes and unnecessary rework. Establish success with the manual workflow before attempting to automate it.

Idea for Impact: Picking which processes to automate isn’t easy; yet, the closer you observe the workflow deeply, the sooner you can understand both the happy path to automation and the exceptions.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Project Management, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Artists, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Productivity, Thinking Tools, Time Management

Never Make a Big Decision Without Doing This First

February 9, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In 1943, General Motors (GM) brought in Peter Drucker to conduct a two-year social-scientific examination of what was then the world’s largest corporation. Drucker conducted many interviews with GM’s corporate leaders, divisional managers, department chiefs, and line workers. He analyzed decision-making and production processes. The resultant landmark study, Concept of the Corporation (1946,) laid the foundations of scientific management as a formal discipline.

One anecdote that Drucker liked to share from his GM research involved how his client, GM supremo Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., generally encouraged disagreements:

During a meeting in which GM’s top management team was considering a weighty decision, Sloan closed the meeting by asking, “Gentlemen, I take it we are all in complete agreement on the decision here?”

Sloan then waited as each member of the assembled committee nodded in agreement.

Sloan continued, “Then, I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what this decision is about.”

Concrete Disagreement Stimulates Thought

Strong leaders encourage their team members to challenge them and question consensus. Leaders so counter the tendency toward synthetic harmony that emanates from group thinking and the risk of unchallenged leadership.

A team member with a difference of opinion or contrary position that’s well rooted in rationale is not to be reprimanded. He may have judgments worth listening to or recommendations worth heeding. Every team needs at least one to keep the team from falling into complacency. A team’s culture shouldn’t shun discouragement and conflict.. Look out, though, for team members who merely pay lip service to allow for the counterargument.

There are three reasons why dissent is needed. It first safeguards the decision maker against becoming the prisoner of the organization. Everybody is special pleader, trying—often in perfectly good faith—to obtain the decision he favors. Second, disagreement alone can provide alternatives to decision. And decision without an alternative is desperate gamblers’ throw, no matter how carefully thought through it might be. Above all, disagreement is needed to stimulate the imagination.

The Best Leaders Encourage Disagreements

Dissent and disagreement are critical to combat confirmation bias—the human tendency to readily seek and accept ostensible facts that match our existing worldview rather than objectively considering alternative viewpoints and unintended consequences.

'Management Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices' by Peter F. Drucker (ISBN 0887306152) What’s worse, leaders tend to surround themselves with like-minded individuals—people they trust and people who think alike. Drucker later wrote in his wide-ranging treatise on Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices (1974,)

Sloan always emphasized the need to test opinions against facts and the need to make absolutely sure that one did not start out with the conclusion and then look for the facts that would support it. But he knew that the right decision demands adequate disagreement.

An effective decision-maker organizes dissent. This protects him against being taken in by the plausible but false or incomplete. It gives him the alternatives so that he can choose and make a decision, but also ensures that he is not lost in the fog when his decision proves deficient or wrong in execution. And it forces the imagination—his own and that of his associates. Dissent converts the plausible into the right and the right into the good decision.

Idea for Impact: The more you encourage healthy debate within your team, the better off you’ll be

The first rule in decision-making should be that you don’t make any decision unless you’ve sought out and contemplated the counterevidence. Consider the other side of any idea as carefully as your own.

Wise leaders proactively seek the truth they don’t want to find. Encourage authentic dissenting opinions to generate more—and better—solutions to problems.

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Filed Under: Managing People, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Conflict, Conversations, Critical Thinking, Leadership Lessons, Social Dynamics, Teams

How to … Pop the Filter Bubble

January 23, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

You’re inclined to be drawn toward those who are similar and wary of those who differ. Similarity bias propels you to unwittingly filter out ideas and opinions that diverge from your own.

Expand your view by actively seeking opposing views. Break your routines. Fraternize with considerate, ‘unlike’-minded people. Remain open to alternative interpretations. Ask big “what if” questions and frame things with an exploratory conjecture: ‘what if we did it this way?,’ ‘do we understand the problem?’ or ‘why doesn’t this work better?’

Putting yourself in a learning and questioning mindset will inspire, stimulate, and challenge you to step out of what you know. Decision-making and creativity will soar.

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  4. Consensus is Dangerous
  5. The Data Never “Says”

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Conversations, Conviction, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Social Dynamics

Serve the ‘Lazy Grapefruit’

January 16, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

I love grapefruits, but they’re messy. Not quite as messy as eating mangos, though. Peeling a grapefruit also leaves a filmy residue on the hands that doesn’t come off easily, even with soap or hand sanitizer.

A professional chef recently coached me on suprêming a grapefruit. This method is a little time-consuming, but the results—no rind, no pith, no skin, no mess—totally worth it! The chef calls it “Serving the Lazy Grapefruit.”

Now that’s an excellent metaphor.

When you give presentations, especially when you pitch to busy executives, you should serve them the ‘lazy grapefruit.’

Too many presentations are put together like a whole grapefruit—the audience is made to go through the trouble of picking the juiciest fare themselves.

Especially so when you’re presenting to busy executives—they tend to be incredibly impatient and often have little time to weigh options. To present the ‘lazy grapefruit’ is to remove the rind and peel in your presentation from the shell of unnecessary details and then serve the kernel to them in an appealing, easily consumable, least-messy form.

Your audience will relish the clarity provided by anyone who’s made an effort to make the message straightforward.

Boil your message down to the essentials and figure out precisely what they’ll need to know and why it’s important to them, and then lay it out in an orderly and logical manner.

Elevate your presentation. It’s more difficult to make your message simpler, but it’s worth the effort.

Idea for Impact: Do the thinking so your audience doesn’t have to.

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Filed Under: Effective Communication, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Communication, Critical Thinking, Meetings, Persuasion, Presentations, Thought Process

Our 10 Most Popular Articles of 2022

December 30, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Here are our most popular exclusive features of 2022. Pass this on to your friends; if they like these, they can sign up to receive our RSS feeds.

  • Choose a better response. Don’t accept reflexive reactions. Instead, learn to know there is a “space” before responding.
  • To be more productive, try doing less. The best way to get lots of things done is to not do them at all.
  • The good of working for a micromanager: be aware of the details your manager cares about and expect to learn a lot.
  • A hack to resist temptation: commit to not giving in for 15 minutes. Even a simple distraction can break the trance.
  • Get good at things by being bad first. If you aren’t willing to be bad initially, you’ll never get started on anything new.
  • Get rid of relationship clutter. Make room for more supportive and nurturing relationships.
  • Don’t be a prisoner of the hurt done to you. While you are the victim of another who has caused you some suffering, she herself is also a victim of suffering.
  • Nothing like a word of encouragement to provide a lift. Everyone needs hope. Look for honest ways to offer even a little nudge of encouragement.
  • The secret to happiness in relationships is lowering your expectations. You’d be happier to accept other people’s difficult behaviors when you expect less from them.
  • Cancel culture has a condescension problem. If we can’t stand up for the right to speech that we dislike, why keep the right to the speech we do like?

And here are some articles of yesteryear that continue to be popular:

  • Lessons on adversity from Charlie Munger
  • If you’re looking for bad luck, you’ll soon find it
  • The power of negative thinking
  • Fight ignorance, not each other
  • The Fermi Rule & Guesstimation
  • Don’t let small decisions destroy your productivity
  • How smart companies get smarter
  • How to manage smart, powerful leaders
  • Care less for what other people think
  • Expressive writing can help you heal
  • Accidents can happen when you least expect

We wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2023!

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Filed Under: Managing People, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Getting Along, Mindfulness, Thought Process

Be Smart by Not Being Stupid

December 12, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

No superhuman ability is usually required to dodge the many foolish choices to which we’re prone. A few basic rules are all that’s needed to shield you, if not from all errors, from silly errors.

Charlie Munger often emphasizes that minimizing mistakes may be one of the least appreciated tricks in successful investing. He has reputedly credited much of Berkshire Hathaway’s success to consistently avoiding stupidity. “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage we have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent.” And, “I think part of the popularity of Berkshire Hathaway is that we look like people who have found a trick. It’s not brilliance. It’s just avoiding stupidity.” They’ve avoided investing in situations they don’t understand or summon experience.

As a policy, avoiding stupidity in investing shouldn’t mean avoiding risk wholly; instead, it’s taking on risk only when there’s a fair chance that you’ll be adequately rewarded for assuming that risk.

Idea for Impact: Tune out stupidity. Becoming successful in life isn’t always about what you do but what you don’t do. In other words, improving decision quality is often more about decreasing your chances of failure than increasing your chances of success.

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Filed Under: MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools, Thought Process, Wisdom

The Creativity of the Unfinished

December 8, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Don’t dot every I and cross every T. Leave a stone unturned.

Ignore a rule. Don’t tie up every loose end.

Leave some questions unanswered. Let something be out of place.

Violate the expectation and usher a realm of potentiality. As the American artist Julia Cameron noted in her seminal self-help book The Artist’s Way: A Spiritual Path to Higher Creativity (1992,) “Art needs time to incubate, to sprawl a little, to be ungainly and misshapen and finally emerge as itself. The ego hates this fact. The ego wants instant gratification and the addictive hit of an acknowledged win.”

A piece of art, a movie, a melodic line, or a production all tend to be more captivating when they leave you wondering—when they urge you to explore the possibilities your mind has to offer.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Artists, Clutter, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Innovation, Mental Models, Thought Process

Lessons from the Japanese Decision-Making Process

November 10, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Japanese firms traditionally use the ringi seido (“request for approval system”) to make critical decisions. A proposal is circulated to appropriate people, advancing from lower to higher ranks. As the proposal works through the management layers before landing at the top, each participant puts their stamp (the hanko) on the document.

This collective consensus process allows for a greater number of reasonable alternatives to be considered and for the risk to be spread. Although it may be slow, the implementation is faster once the decision is made. (Since the early ’90s, Toyota has followed a “three-stamp movement,” restricting the number of people needing to approve a proposal to three.)

Unlike consensus management in the west, the ringi system is often used to appease factions in an institution. Given the Japanese norms (nemawashi) of social structure and intercultural communication, everybody tends to be very diplomatic when giving an opinion. A decision isn’t made if unanimity isn’t reached.

Wondering what to read next?

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  5. To Make an Effective Argument, Explain Your Opponent’s Perspective

Filed Under: Business Stories, Effective Communication, Leading Teams Tagged With: Conflict, Critical Thinking, Japan, Meetings, Persuasion, Presentations, Teams, Thought Process

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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Unless otherwise stated in the individual document, the works above are © Nagesh Belludi under a Creative Commons BY-NC-ND license. You may quote, copy and share them freely, as long as you link back to RightAttitudes.com, don't make money with them, and don't modify the content. Enjoy!