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What the Duck!

December 28, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

There’s a popular technique among programmers called “rubber duck debugging:” put a rubber duck (or a cardboard cutout of a dog) next to your computer, and whenever you get stuck, you talk to the duck.

Yes, you talk your problem and walk your code with that inanimate object. And you perpetuate the stereotype that we geeks are a socially awkward bunch.

“Showing It to Someone Else” isn’t just a way of telling the other what you think; it’s a way of telling yourself what you think. Just the act of slowing down and explaining your problem and its context can bring about a moment of illumination.

Rubber duck debugging is related to what psychologists call “incubation.” The best solutions can strike suddenly and unexpectedly when you aren’t actively working on your problem. Think of Archimedes and his Eureka moment.

Idea for Impact: Talking is often a part of thought. After many failed attempts, switching your brain from problem-solving to problem-explaining—even to a cat, parent, sympathetic coworker, or somebody who may not know much about whatever it is that’s bothering you—can break you free from fixation and trigger creative breakthroughs.

Hat tip to reader Nick Ashcroft.

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Filed Under: Mental Models Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Parables, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Saying is Believing: Why People Are Reluctant to Change an Expressed Opinion

November 30, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Politicians shift their views shamelessly with the winds of opportunism. To their defense, they must choose to stand up for what they believe or risk political capital.

Most politicians believe in one thing—winning elections and latching on to power. Seems they’ll say anything that can get them in the office and stay there. Like when, during the 2004 presidential elections, Democratic nominee John Kerry famously proclaimed, “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against” funding to rebuild Iraq.

Politicians Will Often Flip-flop to Maximize Their Popularity

Well, that’s the nature of the beast. Politicians enter politics for ideological reasons but must readily sell their souls to prolong their political careers. Politicians never seem to be willing to say, “I was wrong” or “Upon mature reflection, I’ve changed my mind on such and such.”

But what about the rest of us? It seems that, unlike the politicians, we’re shamed relatively easily when we change our mind and adjust our approach. Admitting we’ve made a mistake is too threatening to our sense of self. We end up over-compensating by denying fault and refusing ownership of our own mistakes, thereby protecting our self-image.

There’s evidence that suggests that saying is believing. Making a known pronouncement strengthens our commitment to that point of view. By committing ourselves openly to our present opinions, we may be hardening ourselves to future information that would otherwise change our minds.

The ‘Saying-Is-Believing’ Effect

According to Robert Cialdini’s Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (2006,) social psychologists have shown that openly committing to an opinion makes you less willing to change your mind.

Cialdini cites an experiment by social psychologists in which three sets of students were shown a group of lines. One set of students was asked to write down estimates of the lines’ length and turn their estimates to the experimenter. The second set was asked to write down their estimates on a Magic Pad and then wipe out their estimates before anyone else could see them. The third set of students didn’t write down their estimates at all. After the students were shown new evidence that suggested that their initial estimates were wrong,

The students who had never written down their first choices were least loyal to those choices. … By far, it was the students who had publicly recorded their initial positions who most resolutely refused to shift from those positions later. Public commitment had hardened them into the most stubborn of all.

Publicly committing to an answer makes people less receptive to information suggesting they were wrong

Yup, the act of publicly documenting your opinion enforces the feeling of others knowing what your opinion was. This produces fear of being judged.

The hard part about admitting you’re wrong is, well, admitting you’re wrong. This may induce you to refuse to accept new ideas.

The American economist Paul Krugman has remarked on the “epidemic of infallibility,”

Just to be clear, everyone makes mistakes. Nobody is perfect. When you’re committed to a fundamentally false narrative, facing up to facts becomes an act of political disloyalty. What’s going on with Mr. Trump and his inner circle seems to have less to do with ideology than with fragile egos. To admit having been wrong about anything, they seem to imagine, would brand them as losers and make them look small. In reality, of course, the inability to engage in reflection and self-criticism is the mark of a tiny, shriveled soul.

Idea for Impact: Changing Your Mind is Actually a Good Thing

Changing your mind based on new information isn’t bad. It’s something to be encouraged. As the Transcendentalist essayist Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote, “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.”

In our vigilant, hypercritical, and judgmental society, the problem isn’t with people voicing and documenting their opinions (particularly on social media) but with people not being OK with someone changing theirs.

A professed commitment shouldn’t cause reluctance to change your opinion.

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Filed Under: Effective Communication, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Conviction, Critical Thinking, Persuasion, Social Dynamics, Thought Process

Moderate Politics is the Most Sensible Way Forward

September 17, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

A sharp observation on political extremism in this 1987 TV ad by comedian John Cleese for the Social Democratic Party-Liberal Party Alliance (1981–88) in the United Kingdom:

Extremism has its advantages … the biggest advantage of extremism is that it makes you feel good because it provides you with enemies. The great thing about having enemies is that you can pretend that all the badness in the whole world is in your enemies, and all the goodness in the whole world is in you. If you have a lot of anger and resentment in you anyway, and you, therefore, enjoy abusing people, then you can pretend that you’re only doing it because these enemies of yours are such very bad persons and that if it wasn’t for them, you’d actually be good-natured and courteous and rational all the time.

I don’t belong to a political party, and I don’t think I’ll ever join one. Partisan talking points irritate me no end. I’ll watch the upcoming debates, though, because I’ll find all the onstage mudslinging and the impulsive provocations very entertaining.

In politics, everyone tries to push emotional buttons. Few seem to talk about an evidence-based attitude for making decisions and allocating society’s resources where they’ll make the most impact.

Besides, the media today have made the exchange of ideas particularly charged and increasingly polarized. The only way to be heeded to in a screaming vortex is to scream louder and resort to premeditated ad hominum.

Idea for Impact: Wisdom doesn’t reside solely on one side of the center. I am partial to those moderates whose political stance often varies with the issue. Contrary to popular perception, they aren’t tuned-out or ill-informed. Instead, they’re disposed to see both sides of the complex problems, disregard the left and the right’s excessively ideological positions, and seek the middle ground.

Wondering what to read next?

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  3. Rapoport’s Rules to Criticize Someone Constructively
  4. Presenting Facts Can Sometimes Backfire
  5. Don’t Ignore the Counterevidence

Filed Under: Managing People, Mental Models Tagged With: Conflict, Critical Thinking, Getting Along, Persuasion, Politics, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

The Power of Asking Open-Ended Questions

August 24, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

When Bill Gates first met Warren Buffett, Gates was dazzled particularly by how Buffett asked open-ended “big questions”:

I have to admit, when I first met Warren, the fact that he had this framework was a real surprise to me. I met him at a dinner my mother had put together. On my way there, I thought, “Why would I want to meet this guy who picks stocks?” I thought he just used various market-related things—like volume, or how the price had changed over time—to make his decisions. But when we started talking that day, he didn’t ask me about any of those things. Instead he started asking big questions about the fundamentals of our business. “Why can’t IBM do what Microsoft does? Why has Microsoft been so profitable?” That’s when I realized he thought about business in a much more profound way than I’d given him credit for.

“What are My Questions?”

Asking great questions is a skill, but doesn’t come as you would expect. One contributing factor is that, with age, education, and experience, we become conditioned to cogitate in very rigid terms. Heuristics and mental shortcuts become deep-seated and instinctual to allow for faster problem-solving and programmed decision-making.

Idea for Impact: Don’t ask the same questions most people ask. The smartest people I know don’t begin with answers; they start by asking, “what are our questions?”

Make inquiries using open-ended questions that can’t be answered with a ‘yes’ or ‘no.’ Effective questions will help you think deeper, generate meaningful explorations, and yield far more interesting insights.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Asking Questions, Decision-Making, Questioning, Thought Process

How You See is What You See

August 15, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

So very often, we don’t give ourselves to allow for new understandings, new perspectives, and new interpretations to emerge.

Three people were visiting and viewing the Grand Canyon—an artist, a pastor and a cowboy. As they stood on the edge of that massive abyss, each one responded with a cry of exclamation. The artist said, “Ah, what a beautiful scene to paint!” The minister cried, “What a wonderful example of the handiwork of God!” The cowboy mused, “What a terrible place to lose a cow!”

Idea for Impact: Work to overcome the strong waves of conditioning that you’ve been exposed to your whole life.

Take a step back and consider how you’re responding to a situation emotionally and intellectually.

Free up your mind from the conditioning that may be restraining it.

Don’t let your narrow perspectives—those comfortable walls within which you confine yourself—to make you lose touch with what’s possible.

Explore. Discover. Discern. Open your mind to new frontiers.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Parables, Problem Solving, Resilience, Success, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Overcoming Personal Constraints is a Key to Success

August 14, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Why do some people reach ever-higher levels of achievement, while others struggle or just plug along?

Norman Vincent Peale, the doyen of the think-positive mindset, provides a particularly illustrative example in You Can If You Think You Can (1987):

In Tokyo, I once met an American, an inspiring man, from Pennsylvania. Crippled from some form of paralysis, he was on a round-the-world journey in a wheelchair, getting a huge kick out of all his experiences. I commented that nothing seemed to get him down. His reply was a classic: “It’s only my legs that are paralyzed. The paralysis never got into my mind.”

No matter how formidable your talents, you’ll be held back by certain attitudes and behaviors that limit your achievements.

Your personal constraints—some of them beyond your control—will determine your level of success. Identify those constraints and make a plan to triumph over them.

Idea for Impact: The more you can reframe your attitudes toward the past, future, and present, the more likely you’ll find a meaningful life. Don’t let your constraints lay down what you can achieve.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Innovation, Mental Models, Parables, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

How to Gain Empathic Insight during a Conflict

May 28, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

One simple starting point for finding common ground during a conflict is to ask, “what if the others’ perspectives were true?”

When others tell you something that you don’t agree with, just suspend disbelief for a moment.

Imagine what it is to be like them.

Think, “what if the others’ perspectives are true.”

What would that mean to you?

What would that mean in the context of your shared interests?

How would that change your perspective on your own opinion?

Putting yourself in the other person’s shoes can help you identify how they’re feeling and why they’re feeling that way. This makes it easier to take the big vital step: treating them with empathy and compassion. Suddenly, the conflict is less personal—it’s not about you or them.

Idea for Impact: We human beings are not transformed as much by statistics and facts as we are by stories. When there are two alternative viewpoints of one story, being open-minded, listening honestly, and identifying the other through their stories could be really transformative. It changes the conversation. It helps you move forward and seek solutions that are favorable to both sides.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Communication, Conflict, Conversations, Critical Thinking, Getting Along, Persuasion, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Howard Gardner’s Five Minds for the Future // Books in Brief

May 8, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In Five Minds for the Future (2006,) developmental psychologist Howard Gardner argues that succeeding in a rapidly evolving world requires five proficiencies:

  • The Disciplinary Mind: “Individuals without one or more disciplines will not be able to succeed at any demanding workplace and will be restricted to menial tasks.”
  • The Synthesizing Mind: “Individuals without synthesizing capabilities will be overwhelmed by information and unable to make judicious decisions about personal or professional matters.”
  • The Creating Mind: “Individuals without creating capacities will be replaced by computers and will drive away those who have the creative spark.”
  • The Respectful Mind: “Individuals without respect will not be worthy of respect by others and will poison the workplace and the commons.”
  • The Ethical Mind: “Individuals without ethics will yield a world devoid of decent workers and responsible citizens: none of us will want to live on that desolate planet.”

Gardner is best known for his work on multiple intelligences—the theory that cast serious doubts about the simplistic concept of a “single” intelligence, measurable by something like IQ. Gardner’s notion that “there is more than one way to learn” has transformed education in the U.S. and around the world.

Recommendation: Speed-read Five Minds for the Future. Written through the lens of a skills-development policymaker, Gardner’s theses and prescriptions aren’t ground-breaking but make for thoughtful reflection. Complement with Gardner’s The Unschooled Mind (1991; summary.)

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Filed Under: Career Development, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Mental Models, Skills for Success, Thinking Tools, Thought Process, Winning on the Job

How to Have a Eureka Moment during the Coronavirus Lockdown

April 23, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The best solutions to problems sometimes come about suddenly and unexpectedly when people aren’t actively working on their issues.

Psychologists call this phenomenon “incubation”—a brief shift away from a problem that could trigger a flash of insight as if from no additional effort. [Incidentally, “incubation” is very much a term in vogue during the current epidemic.]

Abundant anecdotes evoke creative breakthroughs made when inventors took breaks from working on their problems after many failed attempts to solve them.

‘Eureka Moments’ happen all the time

Perhaps the best-known case in point of incubation is that of the ancient Greek polymath Archimedes.

It’s plausible that Archimedes realized that he could investigate the suspected adulteration of Hieron II’s votive crown (“corona” in Italian/Latin, incidentally) by weighing it in water. The legend doesn’t appear in any of Archimedes’s known works.

That Archimedes leaped out from the bath in which he purportedly got the idea and ran home unclothed is likely a popular embellishment. The Roman architect Vitruvius first mentioned this spin to the story some 200 years after the supposed event:

[Archimedes] happened to go to the bath, and on getting into a tub observed that the more his body sank into it, the more water ran out over the tub. As this pointed out the way to explain the case in question, he jumped out of the tub and rushed home naked, crying with a loud voice that he had found what he was seeking; for he as he ran he shouted repeatedly in Greek, “Heúrēka, heúrēka.” meaning “I have found (it,) I have found (it.)

Millennia later, the scientific world is replete with the exclamation. In fact, the prospectors of California’s gold rush were so keen on the expression that it has appeared on the state seal since 1849, becoming the state’s motto in 1963.

Idea for Impact: To overcome a mental block, take your mind off the problem

After a period of conscious work, if you’ve reached an impasse that is blocking (“fixation”) your awareness of the solution to a problem, set it aside.

Remove yourself from the task. Take your mind off the problem. Go for a run, play with your dog, play an instrument, indulge in your favorite video game, take a shower, or embark on some optimally distracting hobby.

Creativity involves putting old ideas together in new ways. Your mind may be shuffling information at all times, even when you’re not conscious of it. You may just hit upon a solution during either your time away or when you return to the problem after the incubation period.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Overcoming Personal Constraints is a Key to Success
  2. How You See is What You See
  3. Van Gogh Didn’t Just Copy—He Reinvented
  4. Turning a Minus Into a Plus … Constraints are Catalysts for Innovation
  5. What the Duck!

Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Parables, Thought Process

Five Where Only One is Needed: How Airbus Avoids Single Points of Failure

April 6, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In my case study of the Boeing 737 MAX aircraft’s anti-stall mechanism, I examined how relying on data from only one Angle-of-Attack (AoA) sensor caused two accidents and the aircraft’s consequent grounding.

A single point of failure is a system component, which, upon failure, renders the entire system unavailable, dysfunctional, or unreliable. In other words, if a bunch of things relies on one component within your system, and that component breaks, you are counting the time to a catastrophe.

Case Study: How Airbus Builds Multiple Redundancies to Minimize Single Points of Failure

As the Boeing 737 MAX disaster has emphasized, single points of failure in products, services, and processes may spell disaster for organizations that have not adequately identified and mitigated these critical risks. Reducing single points of failure requires a thorough knowledge of the vital systems and processes that an organization relies on to be successful.

Since the dawn of flying, reliance on one sensor has been anathema.

The Airbus A380 aircraft, for example, features 100,000 different wires—that’s 470 km of cables weighing some 5700 kg. Airbus’s wiring includes double or triple redundancy to mitigate the risk of single points of failure caused by defect wiring (e.g., corrosion, chafing of isolation or loose contact) or cut wires (e.g., through particles intruding aircraft structure as in case of an engine burst.)

The Airbus fly-by-wire flight control system has quadruplex redundancy i.e., it has five flight control computers where only one computer is needed to fly the aircraft. Consequently, an Airbus aircraft can afford to lose four of these computers and still be flyable. Of the five flight control computers, three are primary computers and two are secondary (backup) computers. The primary and the secondary flight control computers use different processors, are designed and supplied by different vendors, feature different chips from different manufacturers, and have different software systems developed by different teams using different programming languages. All this redundancy reduces the probability of common hardware- and software-errors that could lead to system failure.

Redundancy is Expensive but Indispensable

The multiple redundant flight control computers continuously keep track of each other’s output. If one computer produces deviant results for some reason, the flight control system as a whole excludes the results from that aberrant computer in determining the appropriate actions for the flight controls.

By replicating critical sensors, computers, and actuators, Airbus provides for a “graceful degradation” state, where essential facilities remain available, allowing the pilot to fly and land the plane. If an Airbus loses all engine power, a ram air turbine can power the aircraft’s most critical systems, allowing the pilot to glide and land the plane (as happened with Air Transat Flight 236.)

Idea for Impact: Build redundancy to prevent system failure from the breakdown of a single component

When you devise a highly reliable system, identify potential single points of failure, and investigate how these risks and failure modes can be mitigated.

For every component of a product or a service you work on, identify single points of failure by asking, “If this component fails, does the rest of the system still work, and, more importantly, does it still do the function it is supposed to do?”

Add redundancy to the system so that failure of any component does not mean failure of the entire system.

If you can’t build redundancy into a system due to some physical or operational complexity, establish frequent inspections and maintenance to keep the system reliable.

Postscript: In people-management, make sure that no one person has sole custody of some critical institutional knowledge, creativity, reputation, or experience that makes him indispensable to the organization’s business continuity and its future performance. If he/she should leave, the organization suffers the loss of that valued standing and expertise. See my article about this notion of key-person dependency risk, the threat posed by an organization, or a team’s over-reliance on one or a few individuals.

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235
  3. Defect Seeding: Strengthen Systems, Boost Confidence
  4. Steering the Course: Leadership’s Flight with the Instrument Scan Mental Model
  5. What Airline Disasters Teach About Cognitive Impairment and Decision-Making Under Stress

Filed Under: Business Stories, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Innovation, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Risk, Thought Process

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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