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The Trickery of Leading Questions

December 1, 2015 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Leading questions are questions that are purposely phrased and presented in such a way that they prompt the respondent to think and answer them in a particular way. Leading questions have the potential to subtly change respondents’ opinions about a topic and to shape their responses to the questions that follow.

Example of Leading Questions and Suggestive Interrogation

Consider the following interchange from the popular 1980s British political satire (and one of my all-time favorite shows) Yes, Prime Minister. In The Ministerial Broadcast episode, Sir Humphrey Appleby and Bernard Woolley discuss how leading questions can be used to influence the results of opinion polls—in their case regarding the reintroduction of National Service, military conscription in the UK.

In Yes, Prime Minister, Sir Appleby (played by Nigel Hawthorne) is the Cabinet Secretary, UK’s principal bureaucrat and a scheming master of manipulation and obfuscation. Woolley (played by Derek Fowlds) is the Prime Minister’s Principal Private Secretary.

In the following clip, Sir Appleby presents a set of leading questions designed to elicit opinion survey responses in support of National Service. He then presents another set of leading questions poised to produce responses opposing National Service.

The Effect of the Leading Questions

First, Sir Appleby demonstrates that asking the following leading questions can sway a respondent to support the reintroduction of National Service:

  • Are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?
  • Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?
  • Do you think there is lack of discipline in our comprehensive schools?
  • Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?
  • Do you think they’ll respond to a challenge?
  • Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?”

This set of six questions brilliantly exemplifies the use of leading questions. They are designed and presented in such a way that they trigger agreement—‘yes’ seems an obvious answer to each. After all, everybody is inclined to be worried about teenage crime and youth unemployment. After this pattern of concordance, Sir Appleby throws in the well-worded crucial question about National Service. In fact, this last question is worded in such a way that it offers National Service as a supposed solution to all the aforementioned problems. Once more, the answer is agreement.

In the second half of his interchange with Woolley, Sir Appleby demonstrates that another set of deliberate leading questions can make the respondent oppose the reintroduction of National Service:

  • Are you worried about the danger of war?
  • Are you worried about the growth of armaments?
  • Do you think there’s a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?
  • Do you think it’s wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?
  • Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?

Sir Humphrey’s first four questions are deliberately designed to produce agreement. In keeping with the survey’s design, the fifth question does too: a person who is concerned about arms and opposed to forcing the youth to take up arms against their will is bound to oppose reintroduction of National Service.

Idea for Impact: Sensitize Yourself to Leading Questions; Use Them if Necessary

Firstly, trust surveys, statistics, and anecdotes at your own discretion. Question everything.

Secondly, sensitize yourself to leading questions. Be alert and aware of all the negative ploys, manipulations, and other persuasive devices that others can shrewdly use to influence your thinking.

Thirdly, and more consequentially, use leading questions when you hold a strong personal opinion on a topic of discussion and must engage others in your favor. If necessary, use leading questions to change their opinion or even to gather some slanted information. While I am not one to condone deception, I do recommend such manipulative techniques as long as you use them for positive ends—sometimes certain ends do justify certain means.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. The Power of Asking Open-Ended Questions
  2. Cultural Differences and Detecting Deception
  3. What the Rise of AI Demands: Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking
  4. Situational Blindness, Fatal Consequences: Lessons from American Airlines 5342
  5. The Upsides of Slowing Down

Filed Under: Effective Communication, Mental Models Tagged With: Asking Questions, Biases, Humor, Manipulation, Questioning, Thought Process

Clever Marketing Exploits the Anchoring Bias

November 17, 2015 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In the ’70s, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman were the first to study a cognitive phenomenon called “anchoring” and its influence on decision-making. Over the decades, extensive research on anchoring has explained that the way and context in which we receive information profoundly influence how we synthesize it.

The effects of anchoring are very visible in marketing, sales, merchandising, and product pricing as it profoundly influences consumer behavior. By offering clever price contrasts, marketers can shape customers’ purchasing decisions. For example,

  • By offering lower prices and promotional sales, department stores induce customers to compare the sale price against the original price—the “anchor”—and think they’re getting a bargain.
  • By displaying shiny, expensive new cars in the showroom, car dealerships encourage customers to accept the prices displayed on their used cars or less flashy models.
  • Patrons at restaurants tend to order the second least-expensive bottle of wine in an attempt to avoid looking cheap. Therefore, restaurants tend to put the highest markup on that very bottle.

The Case of the $429 Breadmaker

Anchoring Bias: Williams-Sonoma $429 Breadmaker Customers are usually more likely to purchase a product when competing alternatives are included, as opposed to having only one product option.

Consider a classic example of this “single-option aversion” phenomenon. A few years ago, Williams-Sonoma couldn’t get customers to buy their $279 breadmaker. They cleverly added a spiffier-and-slicker deluxe breadmaker model to their product line for $429. While Williams-Sonoma didn’t sell many of the new and expensive breadmaker, they doubled sales of the original and less-expensive model.

When the $279 breadmaker was the only model available for sale, customers couldn’t tell whether the price was competitive because there was nothing to compare it to. By introducing a better product for a higher price, Williams-Sonoma provided an anchor upon which its customers could compare the two models; they naturally sided with the $279 model as an attractive alternative.

The Case of the $69 Hot Dog and the $1000 Chocolate Sundae

Usually, absurdly expensive premium goods are less of publicity stunts and more of strategic marketing tactics.

Consider the case of Serendipity 3’s menu anchors. In 2010, the popular New York eatery introduced a $69 hot dog called “Foot-Long Haute Dog” with dressings as exotic as medallions of duck liver, ketchup made from heirloom tomatoes, Dijon mustard with truffle shavings, and caramelized Vidalia onions to justify the high price. Of course, Serendipity 3 gained plenty of publicity when The Guinness Book of World Records certified this hot dog as the most expensive wiener of all time.

The true purpose of these ridiculously priced premium items is to make the next most expensive item seem cheaper. Customers who were drawn by the Haute Dog’s publicity gladly ordered the menu’s $17.95 cheeseburger. Even if $17.95 was too pricey elsewhere, Serendipity 3 customers deemed it reasonable in comparison to the $69 hot dog.

A few years previous, Serendipity 3 similarly offered a $1000 “Golden Opulence Sundae” that was only available with a 48 hour-notice. They sold only one Sundae per month. Nevertheless, this was just a shrewd marketing ploy to convince customers to spend more on high-profit margin desserts such as the $15.50 “fruit and fudge” confection or the $22.50 “Cheese Cake Vesuvius.”

Unsuspecting customers ended up paying too much for other meals at Serendipity 3 while believing they were getting a great deal.

Idea for Impact: Be Sensitive of Anchoring Bias

In both the above case studies, even if the companies sold almost none of their highest-priced models despite the publicity they generated, the companies reaped enormous benefits by exploiting the anchoring bias to induce customers to buy cheaper-than-most-expensive high-profit products.

In summary, anchoring exploits our tendency to seek out comparison and our reliance on context. The anchoring bias describes our subconscious tendency to make decisions by relying heavily on a single piece of information.

Call to Action: Sensitize yourself to how anchoring and anchoring bias may subconsciously affect your decision-making. If you’re in marketing or sales, investigate how you could use anchoring bias to influence your customers.

For more on cognitive biases and behavioral economics, read 2002 Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman’s bestselling Thinking, Fast and Slow. Also read Nir Eyal’s Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products on how to influence customer behaviors and build products and offer services that people love.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Decoy Effect: The Sneaky Sales Trick That Turns Shoppers into Spenders
  2. The Wisdom of the Well-Timed Imperfection: The ‘Pratfall Effect’ and Authenticity
  3. The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent
  4. Elon Musk Insults, Michael O’Leary Sells: Ryanair Knows Cheap-Fare Psychology
  5. Your Product May Be Excellent, But Is There A Market For It?

Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Marketing, Materialism, Personal Finance, Thought Process

What Opportunities Are You Overlooking?

October 13, 2015 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

What Opportunities Are You Overlooking?

In 1975, a young Bill Gross, now America’s most prominent bond-focused mutual fund manager, passed up two opportunities to invest in businesses that would later become two of the world’s most prominent companies.

'The Four Filters Invention of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger' by Bud Labitan (ISBN B001U3YK9S) Gross turned down two “smart and intelligent” men who approached his PIMCO fund for a $10 million loan for their textile business. “It seemed like a funny company, had a dilapidated industrial complex in the Northeast, a See’s Candies store … Blue Chip Stamps … not much else,” Gross later remembered of not being impressed by the applicants’ prospects. The two men, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, built their textile company, Berkshire Hathaway, into one of the largest companies in the world. In 2008, Buffett became the world’s wealthiest person.

'Sam Walton: Made In America' by Sam Walton (ISBN 0553562835) The following week in 1975, Bill Gross visited an entrepreneur named Sam Walton in Bentonville, Arkansas. Walton, then in his late-fifties, had sought a loan from PIMCO to expand his family-run discount store. Walton was renowned for his frugal lifestyle and his crusade to cut costs. Walton and his two sons received Gross at the airport in an old pickup truck. Gross later recalled turning Walton down based on appearances: “[They] would drive me around town and show me the Walmart, all the while with their dog named Dan … they’d yell, ‘Get ’em, Dan, get ’em, Dan,’ when a dog or cat would cross the street … [Walton and his sons] seemed like very high character, reputable people, but the store and idea were [not very impressive.]” By the time Sam Walton passed away in 1992, he had built Walmart into a formidable retailer and had become the world’s wealthiest man.

Parenthetically, two weeks later in 1975, Gross lent $5 million to a rail-car leasing company called Itel after visiting the company’s headquarters in a high-rise building and being impressed, among other things, by thick carpets and “good looking secretaries.” Itel went bankrupt six months after Gross made the loan.

Reflecting upon these experiences, Gross recalled a famous remark made in 1912 by legendary financier J. P. Morgan: that credit lending should be based not on wealth, but on character.

Idea for Impact: What Could You Regret?

While in hindsight it’s easy to empathize with Gross’s regret of missing the opportunities to invest early in Berkshire Hathaway and Walmart and his overlooking the character and promise of their entrepreneurs, it’s difficult to comprehend how Gross could have then objectively predicted the enormous potential in either company.

Narratives of such missed opportunities, though, should make you wonder what opportunities you could be overlooking today that months, years, or decades from now, you could come to regret with the perspective that comes with time or upon mature reflection.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Will You Regret?
  2. [Rating Errors] Beware of the Recency Bias
  3. The Longest Holdout: The Shoichi Yokoi Fallacy
  4. Lessons from Peter Drucker: Quit What You Suck At
  5. That Burning “What If” Question

Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Regret

Situational Awareness: Learn to Adapt More Flexibly to Developing Situations

December 15, 2014 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

As humans, we are each a product of our habits. Much of our behavior is automated. This behavior—often reflexive and natural—is usually shaped by our mental models. These models or “behavioral scripts” that are ingrained in our minds influence how we process stimuli and act. As a result, our mental models influence not only our actions but also how we perceive and interpret various situations.

Mental models are very convenient: they simplify our comprehension of the world around us, streamline decision-making and help us get things done efficiently. At the same time, our reliance on these scripts comes at a cost: we tend to generalize into the future what has worked in the past. This dependence can compel us to overlook important information from the current environment. In addition, our biases often prevent us from considering factors that contradict these models. Mental models sometimes lead us to cling stubbornly to the “this is how I have always done it” mindset, which overlooks the realities of a new situation. We make mistakes when we rely on a model that doesn’t account for real-world situations.

Those mental models and behavioral scripts that we’ve grown so dependent on are the antithesis of adaptability: the characteristic of being adaptable, of being flexible under the influence of rapidly changing external conditions.

Idea for Impact: Learn to sharpen your ‘social antennae.’ Make every effort to read the circumstances and adapt more flexibly to a developing situation.

Parable: “Don’t Become Somebody”

Occasionally, it pays to feign ignorance, as exemplified by the following parable.

Once upon a time, there was a master and his pupil. The master was renowned for his esoteric teaching style. As part of a discussion regarding the self and ego development, the master advised, “Never become somebody.”

The master and pupil set out on a pilgrimage. After an exhausting trek, they stumbled upon a wilderness camp. There were no occupants or attendants around. The master and disciple assumed they could rest there. The master entered one of the cottages and immediately went to sleep. The pupil, emulating his teacher, stepped into an adjacent cottage and fell asleep.

After some time, a royal entourage returned to the camp fatigued from a hunting expedition. The monarch was furious when he glimpsed two strangers sleeping peacefully in his cottages. He dashed to the pupil, roused him and demanded, “Who are you? How dare you rest in my camp?” The pupil rose and noticed the king’s fuming countenance. Bowing respectfully, the pupil exclaimed, “I am a hermetic monk!” Incensed, the monarch ordered that the pupil be beaten up and thrown out.

Next the monarch approached the master, demanding his identity. The master quickly realized he had mistakenly helped himself to the royal cottage. Reading the monarch’s fury, the master did not answer. He feigned cluelessness, babbling, “Hmmmm.” The monarch was livid: “Can’t you understand? I want to know. Who are you?” Yet again, the master did not speak and babbled, “Hmmmm.” The monarch concluded, “He is clearly a dimwit. Take him out of here.”

Soon thereafter, the master and pupil reunited. The pupil was groaning in pain and lamented his stay in the royal camp. The master reiterated, “I told you, don’t become somebody. You ignored my advice, became somebody and suffered for it. You became a monk in that royal lodge and were punished. I did not become anybody and escaped unscathed.”

Recommended Reading

  • ‘Everyday Survival: Why Smart People Do Stupid Things’ by Laurence Gonzales
  • ‘The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business’ by Charles Duhigg
  • ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ by Daniel Kahneman
  • ‘Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger’ by Peter Bevelin

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent
  3. The “Ashtray in the Sky” Mental Model: Idiot-Proofing by Design
  4. The Loss Aversion Mental Model: A Case Study on Why People Think Spirit is a Horrible Airline
  5. Elon Musk Insults, Michael O’Leary Sells: Ryanair Knows Cheap-Fare Psychology

Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Mental Models, Parables

Book Summary of Nassim Taleb’s ‘Fooled by Randomness’

May 6, 2013 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (ISBN 1400067936) In “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets,” Lebanese American essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses cognitive biases and irrationalities that drive human behavior and decision-making.

Principal ideas:

  • Luck, chance, and randomness play a larger role in the happenings of the world than most people acknowledge.
  • People tend to justify random outcomes as non-random and rationalize chance outcomes as results of deliberate actions.
  • Correlation does not translate to causation.
  • People tend to assume patterns in their analysis even when such patterns do not exist.
  • Variations in performance and ability can cause disproportionate rewards, difficulties, punishments, or returns.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Gambler’s Fallacy is the Failure to Realize How Randomness Rules Our World
  2. Maximize Your Chance Possibilities & Get Lucky
  3. Lessons from the World’s Worst Aviation Disaster // Book Summary of ‘The Collision on Tenerife’
  4. Situational Awareness: Learn to Adapt More Flexibly to Developing Situations
  5. You Can’t Develop Solutions Unless You Realize You Got Problems: Problem Finding is an Undervalued Skill

Filed Under: Leadership Reading, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Books for Impact, Luck, Mental Models

The Halo and Horns Effects [Rating Errors]

April 30, 2010 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Preamble: We are often unaware of the many biases and prejudices that influence our social judgments. Psychologists call these “bias blind spots.” We can overcome many of these subliminal biases by teaching ourselves to be aware of them. This is the second in a series of articles on the common rating errors. See my earlier article on the recency bias.

Unconscious Judgments of an Investment Broker

A 2007 study highlights two of the most common unconscious social judgment biases. Prof. Emily Pronin of Princeton University showed study participants one of two pictures of the same man whom she introduced as an investment broker. One picture showed a suited man with a highly regarded Cornell degree and the other showed the man in casual clothing with a degree from a nondescript college. The professor asked her participants how much of a theoretical $1,000 they would invest in each. The participants rated the suited man as more competent: on average, he got $535 on without having his background checked. In contrast, the causal dresser received just $352. Not only were the participants more likely to have the second broker’s credentials verified —but also they did not consider him as trustworthy.

The Halo Effect

The “halo effect” captures what happens when a person who is judged positively based on one aspect is automatically judged positively on several others without much evidence. For instance, as a result of the halo effect,

  • attractive people are often judged as competent and sociable. Film stars and other celebrities are assumed pleasant and sharp-witted,
  • inexperienced interviewers tend to pay less attention to a candidate’s negative traits after discerning one or two positive traits in the first few minutes of a job interview,
  • charismatic professionals tend to get noticed and move up the corporate ladder faster, irrespective of their technical and leadership skills,
  • articulate speakers are likely to influence their audiences more even if their messages are poor in form and content.

Politicians, film and TV stars, sportspersons, celebrities and brand managers have learned to construct a halo effect and capitalize on their reputations. Apple’s iPod spawned positive impressions of other Apple products—the company took advantage of this halo effect and delivered excellent products in the iPhone and iPad. In another example, renowned fashion designers can set high prices for perfectly ordinary clothes.

Halo and Horns Effects in Social Judgment

The Horns Effect

The “horns” or “devil effect” is the concept by which a person who is judged negatively on one aspect is automatically judged negatively on several other aspects without much evidence. Clearly, this is the opposite of the halo effect.

For years, American car manufacturers have battled the mistaken public perception that cars made by Japanese companies are of significantly better quality. This misperception remains even when American car manufacturers use identical components from the same suppliers and assemble their cars using identical manufacturing processes. Even today, Japanese-brand cars resell for much higher prices than American-brand cars.

Call for Action

  • Reflect on your decision-making process to steer clear of biases. As human beings, we incessantly form opinions of people, objects, and events, both consciously and subconsciously. However, our judgment is rarely free of biases and our measures are not always comprehensive enough. Before reaching any important decision, be sure to collect all the relevant facts and reflect on whether your thought processes are free of the common biases.
  • Understand that perception is reality and be conscious of the image you are projecting. People judge the proverbial book by its cover. Your friends and family, workplace and society at large have a certain perception of who you are and what you can do, irrespective of the reality. As much as you would prefer to be evaluated based on who you actually are and what you can actually do, understand that your identity and prospects are based on others’ image of you. Do everything you can to connect people’s perception to the reality. Look and play your role. Begin by reading the seminal article on the topic of personal branding, “The Brand Called You,” written by renowned management author, Tom Peters.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Book Summary of Nassim Taleb’s ‘Fooled by Randomness’
  2. The “Ashtray in the Sky” Mental Model: Idiot-Proofing by Design
  3. Gambler’s Fallacy is the Failure to Realize How Randomness Rules Our World
  4. The Historian’s Fallacy: People of the Past Had No Knowledge of the Future
  5. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235

Filed Under: Leading Teams, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Mental Models

[Rating Errors] Beware of the Recency Bias

April 27, 2010 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Preamble: This is a first of a series of articles on common mistakes in judgment. Even if the focus of these articles is on performance assessment of employees, the discussions hold in all forms of social judgment.

Recency Bias in Performance Assessment

Suppose that you have executed a project effectively and exceeded all expectations during the first ten months of a year. If your manager has overlooked all these achievements and rated you poorly based on a major roadblock your project encountered in November, then you are subject to a Recency Bias. Your manager is in effect evaluating excessively positively or negative, depending on what is most recent.

Many managers tend to rate an employee’s job performance based on a “what has he done lately” mindset. They do not weigh the employee’s performance from earlier in the year (or quarter, if their organizations use a quarterly review system) and tend to rely more on the employee’s performance in the period immediately preceding the performance evaluation deadline. Consequently, achievements and events that happened lately tend to bear more influence on the employee’s performance rating than achievements and events from earlier in the evaluation period.

The cognitive bias (positive or negative) where judgment is founded only on readily recallable recent experiences is termed the ‘Recency Bias’ or ‘Recency Effect.’ This is analogous to people tending to recall items that are at the end of a list rather than items that are in the start of the list. (See Wikipedia’s entry on serial position effect.)

Some employees may exploit the recency bias by being more resourceful and trying to stay in the boss’s good graces in the period leading to performance reviews. I know of a manager who every year organizes community service events at his boss’s favorite non-profit during November and stay in the boss’s good graces ahead of his annual performance review in December. I have also identified wily employees who underperform earlier in a year and shape-up in the months before a performance evaluation is due.

To Avoid Recency Bias, Maintain a Performance Log

If you are a manager, maintain an informal log or diary where you can record each employee’s accomplishments, contributions, praises, and comments from peers and management. When a performance evaluation is due, review all the significant and relevant examples of employee performance you have recorded and write an objective performance summary report. This ensures that you keep yourself informed of your employee’s work and demonstrates that you care about his/her current work and achievements.

As an employee, you can maintain your own log or diary of your achievements. Review this information with your employee once every week. Whether your organization requires a self-assessment or not, refer to this log at the end of the evaluation period, summarize your achievements and submit a concise report to your manager.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Why Incentives Backfire and How to Make Them Work: Summary of Uri Gneezy’s Mixed Signals
  2. When Work Becomes a Metric, Metrics Risk Becoming the Work: A Case Study of the Stakhanovite Movement
  3. The High Cost of Too Much Job Rotation: A Case Study in Ford’s Failure in Teamwork and Vision
  4. Virtue Deferred: Marcial Maciel, The Catholic Church, and How Institutions Learn to Look Away
  5. Don’t Over-Measure and Under-Prioritize

Filed Under: Leading Teams, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Performance Management

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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