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Biases

Situational Awareness: Learn to Adapt More Flexibly to Developing Situations

December 15, 2014 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

As humans, we are each a product of our habits. Much of our behavior is automated. This behavior—often reflexive and natural—is usually shaped by our mental models. These models or “behavioral scripts” that are ingrained in our minds influence how we process stimuli and act. As a result, our mental models influence not only our actions but also how we perceive and interpret various situations.

Mental models are very convenient: they simplify our comprehension of the world around us, streamline decision-making and help us get things done efficiently. At the same time, our reliance on these scripts comes at a cost: we tend to generalize into the future what has worked in the past. This dependence can compel us to overlook important information from the current environment. In addition, our biases often prevent us from considering factors that contradict these models. Mental models sometimes lead us to cling stubbornly to the “this is how I have always done it” mindset, which overlooks the realities of a new situation. We make mistakes when we rely on a model that doesn’t account for real-world situations.

Those mental models and behavioral scripts that we’ve grown so dependent on are the antithesis of adaptability: the characteristic of being adaptable, of being flexible under the influence of rapidly changing external conditions.

Idea for Impact: Learn to sharpen your ‘social antennae.’ Make every effort to read the circumstances and adapt more flexibly to a developing situation.

Parable: “Don’t Become Somebody”

Occasionally, it pays to feign ignorance, as exemplified by the following parable.

Once upon a time, there was a master and his pupil. The master was renowned for his esoteric teaching style. As part of a discussion regarding the self and ego development, the master advised, “Never become somebody.”

The master and pupil set out on a pilgrimage. After an exhausting trek, they stumbled upon a wilderness camp. There were no occupants or attendants around. The master and disciple assumed they could rest there. The master entered one of the cottages and immediately went to sleep. The pupil, emulating his teacher, stepped into an adjacent cottage and fell asleep.

After some time, a royal entourage returned to the camp fatigued from a hunting expedition. The monarch was furious when he glimpsed two strangers sleeping peacefully in his cottages. He dashed to the pupil, roused him and demanded, “Who are you? How dare you rest in my camp?” The pupil rose and noticed the king’s fuming countenance. Bowing respectfully, the pupil exclaimed, “I am a hermetic monk!” Incensed, the monarch ordered that the pupil be beaten up and thrown out.

Next the monarch approached the master, demanding his identity. The master quickly realized he had mistakenly helped himself to the royal cottage. Reading the monarch’s fury, the master did not answer. He feigned cluelessness, babbling, “Hmmmm.” The monarch was livid: “Can’t you understand? I want to know. Who are you?” Yet again, the master did not speak and babbled, “Hmmmm.” The monarch concluded, “He is clearly a dimwit. Take him out of here.”

Soon thereafter, the master and pupil reunited. The pupil was groaning in pain and lamented his stay in the royal camp. The master reiterated, “I told you, don’t become somebody. You ignored my advice, became somebody and suffered for it. You became a monk in that royal lodge and were punished. I did not become anybody and escaped unscathed.”

Recommended Reading

  • ‘Everyday Survival: Why Smart People Do Stupid Things’ by Laurence Gonzales
  • ‘The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business’ by Charles Duhigg
  • ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ by Daniel Kahneman
  • ‘Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger’ by Peter Bevelin

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Optimize with Intent
  2. The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent
  3. The Loss Aversion Mental Model: A Case Study on Why People Think Spirit is a Horrible Airline
  4. Book Summary of Nassim Taleb’s ‘Fooled by Randomness’
  5. The Longest Holdout: The Shoichi Yokoi Fallacy

Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Mental Models, Parables

Book Summary of Nassim Taleb’s ‘Fooled by Randomness’

May 6, 2013 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (ISBN 1400067936) In “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets,” Lebanese American essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses cognitive biases and irrationalities that drive human behavior and decision-making.

Principal ideas:

  • Luck, chance, and randomness play a larger role in the happenings of the world than most people acknowledge.
  • People tend to justify random outcomes as non-random and rationalize chance outcomes as results of deliberate actions.
  • Correlation does not translate to causation.
  • People tend to assume patterns in their analysis even when such patterns do not exist.
  • Variations in performance and ability can cause disproportionate rewards, difficulties, punishments, or returns.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Gambler’s Fallacy is the Failure to Realize How Randomness Rules Our World
  2. Maximize Your Chance Possibilities & Get Lucky
  3. The Halo and Horns Effects [Rating Errors]
  4. The Longest Holdout: The Shoichi Yokoi Fallacy
  5. The Historian’s Fallacy: People of the Past Had No Knowledge of the Future

Filed Under: Leadership Reading, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Books for Impact, Luck, Mental Models

The Halo and Horns Effects [Rating Errors]

April 30, 2010 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Preamble: We are often unaware of the many biases and prejudices that influence our social judgments. Psychologists call these “bias blind spots.” We can overcome many of these subliminal biases by teaching ourselves to be aware of them. This is the second in a series of articles on the common rating errors. See my earlier article on the recency bias.

Unconscious Judgments of an Investment Broker

A 2007 study highlights two of the most common unconscious social judgment biases. Prof. Emily Pronin of Princeton University showed study participants one of two pictures of the same man whom she introduced as an investment broker. One picture showed a suited man with a highly regarded Cornell degree and the other showed the man in casual clothing with a degree from a nondescript college. The professor asked her participants how much of a theoretical $1,000 they would invest in each. The participants rated the suited man as more competent: on average, he got $535 on without having his background checked. In contrast, the causal dresser received just $352. Not only were the participants more likely to have the second broker’s credentials verified —but also they did not consider him as trustworthy.

The Halo Effect

The “halo effect” captures what happens when a person who is judged positively based on one aspect is automatically judged positively on several others without much evidence. For instance, as a result of the halo effect,

  • attractive people are often judged as competent and sociable. Film stars and other celebrities are assumed pleasant and sharp-witted,
  • inexperienced interviewers tend to pay less attention to a candidate’s negative traits after discerning one or two positive traits in the first few minutes of a job interview,
  • charismatic professionals tend to get noticed and move up the corporate ladder faster, irrespective of their technical and leadership skills,
  • articulate speakers are likely to influence their audiences more even if their messages are poor in form and content.

Politicians, film and TV stars, sportspersons, celebrities and brand managers have learned to construct a halo effect and capitalize on their reputations. Apple’s iPod spawned positive impressions of other Apple products—the company took advantage of this halo effect and delivered excellent products in the iPhone and iPad. In another example, renowned fashion designers can set high prices for perfectly ordinary clothes.

Halo and Horns Effects in Social Judgment

The Horns Effect

The “horns” or “devil effect” is the concept by which a person who is judged negatively on one aspect is automatically judged negatively on several other aspects without much evidence. Clearly, this is the opposite of the halo effect.

For years, American car manufacturers have battled the mistaken public perception that cars made by Japanese companies are of significantly better quality. This misperception remains even when American car manufacturers use identical components from the same suppliers and assemble their cars using identical manufacturing processes. Even today, Japanese-brand cars resell for much higher prices than American-brand cars.

Call for Action

  • Reflect on your decision-making process to steer clear of biases. As human beings, we incessantly form opinions of people, objects, and events, both consciously and subconsciously. However, our judgment is rarely free of biases and our measures are not always comprehensive enough. Before reaching any important decision, be sure to collect all the relevant facts and reflect on whether your thought processes are free of the common biases.
  • Understand that perception is reality and be conscious of the image you are projecting. People judge the proverbial book by its cover. Your friends and family, workplace and society at large have a certain perception of who you are and what you can do, irrespective of the reality. As much as you would prefer to be evaluated based on who you actually are and what you can actually do, understand that your identity and prospects are based on others’ image of you. Do everything you can to connect people’s perception to the reality. Look and play your role. Begin by reading the seminal article on the topic of personal branding, “The Brand Called You,” written by renowned management author, Tom Peters.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Book Summary of Nassim Taleb’s ‘Fooled by Randomness’
  2. The Longest Holdout: The Shoichi Yokoi Fallacy
  3. Situational Awareness: Learn to Adapt More Flexibly to Developing Situations
  4. Gambler’s Fallacy is the Failure to Realize How Randomness Rules Our World
  5. The Historian’s Fallacy: People of the Past Had No Knowledge of the Future

Filed Under: Leading Teams, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Mental Models

[Rating Errors] Beware of the Recency Bias

April 27, 2010 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Preamble: This is a first of a series of articles on common mistakes in judgment. Even if the focus of these articles is on performance assessment of employees, the discussions hold in all forms of social judgment.

Recency Bias in Performance Assessment

Suppose that you have executed a project effectively and exceeded all expectations during the first ten months of a year. If your manager has overlooked all these achievements and rated you poorly based on a major roadblock your project encountered in November, then you are subject to a Recency Bias. Your manager is in effect evaluating excessively positively or negative, depending on what is most recent.

Many managers tend to rate an employee’s job performance based on a “what has he done lately” mindset. They do not weigh the employee’s performance from earlier in the year (or quarter, if their organizations use a quarterly review system) and tend to rely more on the employee’s performance in the period immediately preceding the performance evaluation deadline. Consequently, achievements and events that happened lately tend to bear more influence on the employee’s performance rating than achievements and events from earlier in the evaluation period.

The cognitive bias (positive or negative) where judgment is founded only on readily recallable recent experiences is termed the ‘Recency Bias’ or ‘Recency Effect.’ This is analogous to people tending to recall items that are at the end of a list rather than items that are in the start of the list. (See Wikipedia’s entry on serial position effect.)

Some employees may exploit the recency bias by being more resourceful and trying to stay in the boss’s good graces in the period leading to performance reviews. I know of a manager who every year organizes community service events at his boss’s favorite non-profit during November and stay in the boss’s good graces ahead of his annual performance review in December. I have also identified wily employees who underperform earlier in a year and shape-up in the months before a performance evaluation is due.

To Avoid Recency Bias, Maintain a Performance Log

If you are a manager, maintain an informal log or diary where you can record each employee’s accomplishments, contributions, praises, and comments from peers and management. When a performance evaluation is due, review all the significant and relevant examples of employee performance you have recorded and write an objective performance summary report. This ensures that you keep yourself informed of your employee’s work and demonstrates that you care about his/her current work and achievements.

As an employee, you can maintain your own log or diary of your achievements. Review this information with your employee once every week. Whether your organization requires a self-assessment or not, refer to this log at the end of the evaluation period, summarize your achievements and submit a concise report to your manager.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Why Incentives Backfire and How to Make Them Work: Summary of Uri Gneezy’s Mixed Signals
  2. When Work Becomes a Metric, Metrics Risk Becoming the Work: A Case Study of the Stakhanovite Movement
  3. Virtue Deferred: Marcial Maciel, The Catholic Church, and How Institutions Learn to Look Away
  4. Don’t Over-Measure and Under-Prioritize
  5. Why Sandbagging Your Goals Kills Productivity

Filed Under: Leading Teams, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Performance Management

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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Unless otherwise stated in the individual document, the works above are © Nagesh Belludi under a Creative Commons BY-NC-ND license. You may quote, copy and share them freely, as long as you link back to RightAttitudes.com, don't make money with them, and don't modify the content. Enjoy!