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Aviation

Jeju Air Flight 2216—The Alleged Failure to Think Clearly Under Fire

July 28, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How Situational Blindness Caused the American Airlines-Black Hawk Fatal Collision Near Reagan National Airport Yet another preliminary report from a fatal airline accident leaves crucial details unresolved and continues to fuel debate—echoing the intense scrutiny surrounding the Air India 171 crash.

In December 2024, Jeju Air Flight 2216 crash-landed at South Korea’s Muan International Airport. The Boeing 737–800 aircraft touched down without deploying its landing gear, overshot the runway at high speed, and struck a concrete structure supporting the Instrument Landing System (ILS) localizer beacon. The resulting fire claimed 179 of the 181 lives on board, marking South Korea’s deadliest aviation disaster in recent decades.

A leaked version of the initial findings indicates that both engines were hit by birds during final approach. The right engine suffered extensive damage, emitting flames and thick black smoke, while the left engine maintained sufficient thrust. Despite this, the flight crew allegedly shut down the left engine. No mechanical faults were found in the aircraft or its engines. Investigators also noted a critical data gap: both the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR) ceased functioning approximately four minutes before impact, leaving key questions about the crew’s decision-making unanswered. The preliminary report avoids definitive conclusions regarding crew actions, citing limitations in scope.

Aviation experts have expressed frustration over the absence of conclusive evidence about the crew’s decisions—particularly given the missing CVR and FDR data. Shutting down a functioning engine dramatically limits aircraft control and reduces the chance of executing a go-around or controlled landing. The report has also drawn criticism for downplaying airport infrastructure flaws. The structure the aircraft collided with was made of non-frangible material—contrary to international safety standards, which recommend breakaway designs to mitigate impact severity. If it emerges that the emergency landing was skillfully executed, the aircraft might have skidded further and come to a natural stop. A final, more comprehensive report is expected next summer.

If early findings are confirmed—especially the shutdown of the less-damaged engine—this accident may serve as another tragic example of cognitive overload under intense stress. Pilots in high-pressure situations can experience “narrowing of the cognitive map,” a phenomenon where tunnel vision compromises situational awareness and hinders sound decision-making. Inattentional blindness may also cause individuals to miss vital environmental cues—a pattern I’ve observed in numerous other aviation incidents covered on this blog.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Aviation, Biases, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Stress

Flying Cramped Coach: The Economics of Self-Inflicted Misery

July 3, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Flying Cramped Coach: Economics of Self-Inflicted Misery I fly often. I’m in airports often. And I’m consistently amazed at the plaintive bleating from the rear of the aircraft—as if indignity were somehow sprung upon them unannounced. But no one ends up in seat 36B by accident. Airlines today offer a deeply tiered experience—you’re not just buying a ticket; you’re buying the version of reality you’re willing to endure.

At the heart of aviation lies the cold arithmetic of skybound economics. Premium-class offerings fund the airline. Their plush seats, elevated service, and eye-watering prices (often paid for by employers) generate the profits that justify the entire operation. Coach serves as flying ballast—necessary, but optimized for volume rather than value. Every inch is monetized; every amenity, unbundled.

And flying passengers isn’t even where the real money is. Airlines have discovered that their most lucrative business model isn’t in the skies—it’s in your wallet. Delta pulls in nearly $7 billion a year from its partnership with American Express. American Airlines sees even greater windfalls, with co-branded credit card deals expected to generate $10 billion annually, adding $1.5 billion to pre-tax income. In some quarters, the frequent flyer program outperforms the flying business itself. Your loyalty is more valuable than your seat.

So when the knees start knocking in economy, remember: that seat wasn’t designed for your comfort. It was engineered for margins. Flying economy dares you to expect less—for less. It strips away the last pretenses of customer care and replaces them with transactional realism.

The harsh truth is that airlines have worked—and are still working—very hard to normalize a flying experience where discomfort isn’t just endured, but willingly bought at a discount. They offer precisely the misery we’ve paid for, right down to the punitive carry-on policy and the millimeter of missing legroom. To complain after the fact is to weep at the altar of one’s own bargain-hunting.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models Tagged With: Aviation, Customer Service, Decision-Making, Innovation, Marketing, Negotiation, Parables, Persuasion, Psychology

Airline Safety Videos: From Dull Briefings to Dynamic Ad Platforms

May 1, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Air India's 'Safety Mudras' Video: Blend Of Safety And Cultural Heritage

On every flight, as the safety video or briefing commences, most passengers treat it as mere background noise, having seen it countless times. Yet, flight attendants deliver these life-saving instructions with the consistency and enthusiasm of Broadway performers. What began decades ago as a simple aviation mandate has lately transformed into a creative explosion.

For most people, time feels elastic—stretching painfully in moments of boredom and discomfort, yet slipping away too fast in joy or deep focus. We crave engagement. A well-known Harvard experiment demonstrated just how powerful this need is: when faced with an empty room and nothing to occupy them, most participants chose to administer painful electric shocks to themselves rather than endure the silence. This seemingly irrational response underscores a deep truth—humans will go to great lengths to avoid boredom, even if it means experiencing discomfort. When our attention isn’t engaged, even irritation feels preferable. This insight carries significant implications for how brands captivate audiences and sustain their focus.

Airline safety videos serve as a compelling illustration of this phenomenon. Initially, these videos were little more than regulatory formalities—a necessary briefing mandated by aviation authorities. In the 1980s, airlines presented these messages in a standard, unremarkable manner. Although the absence of strict presentation guidelines allowed for some creativity, airlines largely adhered to the conventional script, resulting in minimal innovation for many years.

Then, in 2007, Richard Branson’s Virgin America took a bold step by transforming the routine safety video into an unexpected and entertaining experience through the use of cartoons and humor. This creative risk not only reinforced the airline’s unconventional brand identity but also captivated a captive audience. Soon after, other airlines began to adopt similar approaches, initiating what could be described as a “novelty arms race.” By 2009, Air New Zealand further pushed the boundaries with its “Bare Essentials of Safety” video, featuring flight attendants adorned with body paint that cleverly integrated safety instructions with the brand’s identity. Delta’s “Deltalina” video, famous for a finger-wagging anti-smoking gesture, ironically let humor overshadow the actual safety spiel.

Delta's Iconic Flight Attendant Deltalina, Famous For Finger Wagging In Viral Safety Video In the subsequent years, confronted with a surplus of repetitive safety instructions, airlines sought increasingly innovative methods to engage passengers. This evolution extended beyond mere creative makeovers. By 2020, airlines began to view their safety videos as valuable advertising platforms for cross-promotional opportunities. For instance, United Airlines introduced a Spider-Man-themed safety video that incorporated iconic superhero imagery into its life-saving instructions. Air India’s latest, “Safety Mudrās,” beautifully blends essential safety instructions with India’s rich cultural heritage, using classical and folk dance forms to create a mesmerizing visual experience.

As airlines increasingly personalize these presentations—sometimes even tailoring content based on seating class or passenger data—they are tapping into a lucrative market that merges engagement with data-driven advertising. One example of this shift is United Airlines’s launch of Kinective Media last year, a platform that utilizes travel behavior insights and personal data from its MileagePlus loyalty program to tailor personalized ads and content. Spearheading this initiative is MileagePlus CEO Richard Nunn, who was appointed in 2023—an especially notable choice given his expertise in advertising technology and digital media, rather than the airline or loyalty industries. Ultimately, the transformation of airline safety videos from tedious regulatory exercises to dynamic, branded content demonstrates how the human desire to escape boredom can drive innovation.

Idea for Impact: As brands continue to refine their engagement strategies, the distinction between the essential and the creative increasingly blurs.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Aviation, Competition, Creativity, Customer Service, Innovation, Marketing, Parables, Persuasion, Psychology

Situational Blindness, Fatal Consequences: Lessons from American Airlines 5342

February 1, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How Situational Blindness Caused the American Airlines-Black Hawk Fatal Collision Near Reagan National Airport Earlier this week, I mentioned how accidents rarely result from a single cause, but rather from a series of factors that align to trigger disaster. On their own, these ‘contributing factors’ may seem minor, but together, they can lead to significant incidents, as was the case on Wednesday night.

An American Airlines flight (5342,) operated by American Eagle/PSA, collided with an Army Black Hawk helicopter near Reagan National Airport (DCA) in Washington D.C., sending both aircraft into the Potomac River. Tragically, all 60 passengers and 4 crew members aboard the flight, along with the 3 soldiers in the helicopter, lost their lives. Investigations are underway, but while it’s too early for deductions, it appears that a combination of factors contributed to this devastating event.

The Black Hawk was flying under Visual Flight Rules (VFR,) relying heavily on visual references to navigate. This required the pilots to maintain visual separation from other aircraft and use landmarks for guidance. Although typically crewed by four, this Black Hawk had only three personnel aboard. It is unclear whether a single pilot was at the controls, but the absence of a second pilot may have removed a crucial safety layer. In a high-traffic airspace like this, having two pilots flying allows for cross-checking decisions, reducing the risk of errors. Disorientation is a real danger, especially at night with lights reflecting off the river. A second pilot would have provided an additional perspective for decision-making, an extra set of eyes for maintaining visual separation, and crucial support for monitoring instruments and communicating with air traffic control, all of which enhance situational awareness.

The Black Hawk pilot can be heard on the radio confirming visual contact with the incoming aircraft, stating, “PAT 25 [call sign of the Black Hawk] has the traffic in sight, request visual separation.” This indicated that the pilot had assumed responsibility for maintaining a safe distance. The air traffic controller approved the request, effectively transferring collision avoidance duties to the helicopter crew. However, the Black Hawk was supposed to be flying at 200 feet but was instead at an altitude of 350 to 400 feet when the collision occurred—just as Flight 5342 was descending. This altitude discrepancy was a critical error and a key factor in the crash. Notably, just over 24 hours before this fatal incident, another American Eagle jet had to abort its landing after coming dangerously close to a helicopter in the same congested airspace.

There may also have been confusion about which aircraft the Black Hawk needed to avoid. The pilot may have mistakenly identified a different aircraft—either one following Flight 5342 in the landing sequence or another departing from the airport. Although air traffic control communications followed standard procedures, clearer identification of aircraft could have helped prevent the tragedy.

Ultimately, the crash suggests that a series of mistakes—misidentification, altitude discrepancies, and the challenges of navigating busy airspace—may have contributed to the collision. While the Black Hawk was highly maneuverable and could have potentially adjusted its course, these errors seem to have compounded, making avoidance increasingly difficult.

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Filed Under: Effective Communication, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Confidence, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

How Contributing Factors Stack Up and Accidents Unfold: A Case Study of the 2024 Delta A350 & CRJ-900 Collision

January 27, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Delta Air Lines A350-900 Strikes CRJ-900 in Atlanta 2024: A Case Study of Contributing Factors and Accident Progression

Accidents rarely result from a single cause but rather from a sequence of situations where various contributing factors align to set disaster in motion. Individually, these factors may seem inconsequential, but when combined, they can escalate into major incidents. Understanding these interconnected aspects can help you transition from reactive responses to proactive accident prevention.

A recent case study involves a ground collision (see visual reconstruction) at Atlanta airport on 10-Sep-2024 between a Delta Air Lines Airbus A350 and a Bombardier CRJ-900 regional jet. While taxiing, the A350’s right wingtip struck the CRJ-900’s vertical stabilizer, resulting in significant damage to the smaller aircraft and minor damage to the A350. The incident remains under investigation, with preliminary findings suggesting that communication gaps, ground movement protocols, and situational awareness issues contributed to the collision.

  • CRJ-900 Positioning. While taxiing for departure, the Endeavor Air/Delta Connection CRJ-900 stopped 56 feet short of the designated hold short line on the taxiway. Although it could have positioned closer in preparation for entering the runway, its position did not violate procedural regulations, which only require that no part of the aircraft extend beyond the hold short line, without specifying a minimum stopping distance. However, had the CRJ-900 taxied closer, the collision with the passing A350 could have been avoided.
  • Delta Air Lines A350-900 Collides with Endeavor Air/Delta Connection CRJ-900 in Atlanta A350 Crew Distraction. While taxiing on an intersecting taxiway, the A350 flight crew detected a maintenance alert on the dashboard. They requested permission to stop on the taxiway to promptly investigate the issue and consult with company maintenance. However, ATC, likely prioritizing traffic flow, denied the request and instructed them to continue past the CRJ-900 before stopping again. Despite this, the crew chose to address the alert while taxiing, leading to a distraction at a critical moment as they passed the other aircraft.
  • Situational Awareness Challenges. Preoccupied with the maintenance alert, the A350 pilots failed to notice the close proximity of the CRJ-900. The cockpit also included two relief crew members—the relief captain and relief first officer—who, like the primary crew, failed to recognize the risk. Positioned on the starboard side, it was the first officer’s responsibility to ensure sufficient clearance. However, distractions impaired their situational awareness and decision-making. Standard protocol dictates that, when in doubt about clearances, pilots should stop, set the brakes, and address issues without multitasking.

As mentioned earlier, the incident is still under investigation, but I believe the ultimate responsibility for avoiding obstacles lies with the distracted A350 crew. Although they followed ATC instructions and stayed on the taxiway’s centerline, the crew should have remained more vigilant. Neither ATC nor the A350 crew noticed that the CRJ-900 was positioned in a way that prevented the A350’s wingtip from clearing it.

Given the limited visibility of the wingtip from the A350 flight deck, it’s pilots should have stopped if they were unsure about clearance. This event highlights the need for improved Crew Resource Management (CRM) training to enhance teamwork, decision-making, and vigilance. Standard procedures emphasize stopping, setting the parking brake, and seeking assistance when obstacles are suspected. Flight crews must maintain spatial awareness and heightened perception of surrounding aircraft, even while managing other operational tasks.

Idea for Impact: Recognizing accidents as the result of interconnected contributing factors emphasizes the importance of addressing not only individual issues but also how they interact within the system.

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Filed Under: Effective Communication, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Conflict, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Stress, Thinking Tools

Heartfelt Leadership at United Airlines and a Journey Through Adversity: Summary of Oscar Munoz’s Memoir, ‘Turnaround Time’

December 16, 2024 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Leadership is a delicate balancing act where success and failure can hinge on perception. When a company thrives, traits like optimism and active listening are celebrated as visionary, and leaders who engage with their teams are hailed as collaborative, inclusive, and forward-thinking. But when things go wrong, those same qualities come under attack—optimism’s dismissed as naivety, and “listening” gets criticized as indecisiveness or an overreliance on consensus. Ultimately, results shape the narrative, transforming managerial traits into strengths or weaknesses based on the outcome.

'Turnaround Time' by Oscar Munoz (ISBN 0063284286) Oscar Munoz, former CEO of United Airlines, waited more than four years after handing the reins to Scott Kirby before publishing his business memoir, Turnaround Time: Uniting an Airline and Its Employees in the Friendly Skies (2023.) With United now performing well despite the harsh challenges it faced over the past five years—such as the COVID-19 pandemic, operational disruptions, Boeing’s issues, and various supply chain problems—Munoz’s retrospective lens casts his “people-first leadership” in a favorable light.

At United, Munoz was more of a caretaker CEO than an industry visionary. He was elevated from the board to CEO following his predecessor’s scandal-driven resignation, with his main charge being to find a competent successor with deep industry experience. He succeeded spectacularly by recruiting Scott Kirby after Kirby was abruptly dismissed from American Airlines in 2016. When Munoz handed over the CEO role to Kirby just before Christmas 2019, on the eve of the COVID pandemic, analysts believed Munoz’s legacy would largely rest on hiring Kirby and his rocky initial response to the David Dao incident, followed by a dramatic course correction. To his credit, Munoz used the Dao debacle as a turning point, overseeing an acceleration in significant changes to United’s operations and employee culture.

However, Turnaround Time, which emphasizes the “human aspect of leadership,” lacks the tactical depth expected from a CEO memoir. It’s filled with anecdotes about “listening to employees” rather than providing detailed business strategies or a comprehensive portrayal of the complexities of running a major airline during a challenging time for the industry, with countless variables and uncontrollable factors shaping outcomes.

A key moment in the book recounts Munoz’s seemingly insightful interaction with a flight attendant named Amy Sue, who tearfully told him, “I’m just tired of always having to say, ‘I’m sorry.'” Her words underscored the burden frontline employees face—apologizing for service flaws and management decisions beyond their control. This encounter, claims Munoz, crystallized his leadership mission: to empower employees by aligning resources and support with their professional pride. United’s morale had been battered by financial struggles following 9/11, bankruptcy, and a slow-moving “merger” with Continental Airlines. Change was overdue, and Munoz’s employee-first approach aimed to revive a dispirited workforce.

Leadership Lessons from United Airlines' CEO, Oscar Munoz Yet, one can’t help but ask: Why hadn’t Munoz engaged with employees during his decade on the board of United’s parent company (and another five years at the acquiring company, Continental Airlines)? Wise board members often gain an unfiltered understanding of company culture by connecting with employees directly rather than relying on polished C-suite reports, which can skew the board’s perceptions of the organization’s internal climate.

The real strength of Munoz’s memoir lies in his personal story, which brings a human depth to the book. Just 38 days into his CEO role, Munoz was hospitalized with coronary artery disease and underwent emergency heart surgery, followed by a heart transplant two months later. In Munoz’s telling, this harrowing experience reshaped his approach to leadership, infusing it with compassion and an awareness of the personal struggles many employees likely faced. With Kirby and the rest of the leadership team handling the daily operations and improvements of the airline, Munoz focused on creating a supportive company culture. Frontline employees I’ve interacted with often describe Munoz as personable and genuinely interested in their well-being and professional satisfaction.

Munoz’s heart transplant and recovery add emotional resonance to what might’ve been a typical corporate memoir. Turnaround Time highlights the emotional and psychological resilience that underpinned his leadership at United, showing how his personal journey mirrored his professional one. It’s a fast, engaging read worth picking up for the human story behind the corporate challenges.

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The Likeability Factor: Whose “Do Not Pair” List Includes You?

March 21, 2024 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Southwest Airlines Employs Southwest Airlines employs an “Avoidance Bid System,” similar to the “Do Not Pair” systems found at other airlines. This system allows first officers to select up to three captains they prefer not to fly with when scheduling their monthly rosters. The process is straightforward; it involves entering the captain’s employee number without the need to provide a reason for the preference.

If Southwest’s crew scheduling system pairs a first officer with one of their “avoided” captains, the first officer will be reassigned to a different trip. Notably, captains do not have the same privilege to designate first officers they prefer not to fly with.

The Avoidance Bid System gained significant attention after the Southwest Airlines Flight 345 incident in July 2013. This incident involved a Boeing 737-700 aircraft experiencing a nose gear collapse during a hard landing at New York’s LaGuardia Airport. Despite receiving warnings from the first officer to abort the landing, the captain ignored the alerts. Subsequent investigations uncovered that the captain had received numerous grievances from many first officers she had flown with before; in fact, she was on many first officers’ “Do Not Pair” lists.

In professions such as aviation, which depend heavily on standardization and routine procedures, the impact of workplace likability is intriguing to ponder. When management overlooks individuals who struggle to collaborate and adhere to standard procedures, it poses a considerable risk to safe operations. Errant behavior, particularly from those in positions of power, can disrupt team dynamics, sow tension among colleagues, and weaken the efficacy of established protocols.

Idea for Impact: Ever stop and think if your coworkers would slap your name on their “Do Not Pair” list if our company had a system like that? Maybe your skills, experience, or even just your attitude could land you there. Likability is the glue that fortifies professional relationships and unlocks pathways to opportunities.

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Steering the Course: Leadership’s Flight with the Instrument Scan Mental Model

November 6, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Instrument Scan Mental Model: Leaders Must Employ Their Instruments for Guided Insight Embarking on flight training comes with a nifty habit that instructors eagerly instill from the get-go: the art of instrument scanning.

Whispers from your instructor echo in your mind, urging you with the mantra, “Scan, scan, scan!”

Keep a Good Scan of Your Instruments, Never Be Stumped

A vital cautionary command follows closely, “Don’t stare!” You learn to effortlessly let your gaze flit from one instrument to another. The altitude indicator, heading indicator, airspeed indicator, and vertical speed indicator each hold a crucial piece of the intricate airborne puzzle.

There’s a natural instinct to fixate on a single instrument, yet doing so can lead pilots astray. Gazing at the altimeter may cause heading drift, while focusing solely on heading may compromise airspeed control.

Pilots are trained to maintain a cohesive scan of all instruments, constantly cross-checking the streams of data. By doing so, they can swiftly identify any inconsistencies, such as an altitude indicating descent while the altimeter shows level flight.

With instrument scanning, pilots can promptly isolate the problematic instrument or data stream, and if necessary devise alternative plans to obtain the necessary information and ensure the aircraft’s safe and steady flight.

Just as Pilots Use Instruments in the Air, Leaders Scan Their Realm

The concept of an instrument scan mindset serves as a potent analogy for effectively managing critical information within the realm of business. Much like pilots, leaders must engage in ongoing monitoring, analysis, and cross-referencing of pertinent data. To achieve success, it’s imperative to proactively pay attention to emerging trends, maintain a steadfast focus on the larger picture, and cultivate a curious mindset.

It is of utmost importance to avoid fixating on a single metric to the detriment of considering other vital factors that could impact the business. Leaders should routinely revisit their goals, objectives, and key performance indicators (KPIs,) and conduct a thorough analysis of data to discern trends, patterns, and areas of concern, all while embracing a proactive and inquisitive approach. They should be unafraid to pose challenging questions, challenge assumptions, and maintain a comprehensive situational awareness.

Sadly, in the world of business, this mindset is frequently overlooked. Reports are often generated, and actions taken without the rigorous cross-checking or sense-checking of the underlying data. Stakeholders become overly fixated on a single “instrument,” and in doing so, they fail to maintain a broader scan of the business landscape.

It is crucial to refrain from accepting data at face value, as maintaining a vigilant scan and a more extensive situational awareness is of paramount importance. Embrace the wisdom of instrument scanning to chart a course toward success, steering clear of perilous assumptions and acquiring a comprehensive understanding of your business’s performance.

Leaders Must Employ Their ‘Instruments’ for Guided Insight

Within the symbolic framework of leadership, as in flying an aircraft, the concept of instrument scanning encompasses the continual practice of gathering and interpreting information. This process is vital for making well-informed decisions, safeguarding the welfare of the organization or team, and steering a precise path toward the envisioned goals.

Much like how pilots depend on their instruments to navigate their flights safely and on the correct course, effective leadership through instrument scanning is essential. It serves as the linchpin for steering an organization or team toward triumph and preserving their vitality and stability.

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Under Pressure, The Narrowing Cognitive Map: Lessons from the Tragedy of Singapore Airlines Flight 6

July 10, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Picture this: You’re parking your car when, suddenly, you catch sight of the bus you desperately need to catch pulling into the station. Acting on instinct, you swiftly navigate your car into a vacant spot, deftly gather your bags, and launch yourself towards the bus stop, driven by an unwavering determination to evade a tedious fifteen-minute wait for the next one. In the whirlwind of your frantic sprint, you absentmindedly and hastily tuck your cherished cell phone into your back pocket, oblivious that it slips out during the adrenaline-fueled pursuit of catching the bus. It’s only after another five minutes that you become aware of your cell phone’s absence, and the weight of its loss gradually descends upon you.

Isn’t it fascinating how our minds tend to close off under time pressure? This fascinating cognitive phenomenon is known as the “narrowing of the cognitive map.” It’s as if our attention becomes laser-focused, but unfortunately, that can lead us to make unfortunate errors in judgment.

When we find ourselves in the clutches of tunnel vision, our thinking becomes constrained, and we unknowingly fall into the trap of limited perspective. Not only do we become so fixated on a specific course of action that we overlook crucial details in our environment, but we also become oblivious to the subtle signals whispering, “Something’s amiss.”

Inattentional blindness, indeed. It’s a common problem in high-stress situations, and it can have serious consequences, as in the following case study of the Singapore Airlines Flight 6 crash.

Speed Stress Causes Serious Breakdowns in the Reliability of Judgment

Flight 6’s tragic case accident occurred on October 31, 2000, at Taipei’s Chiang Kai-shek International Airport. Various factors contributed to the crash, including severe weather conditions, limited visibility, inadequate airport markings, and insufficient actions taken by both the pilots and air traffic controllers.

During a scheduled stop in Taipei on its journey from Singapore to Los Angeles, Flight 6’s flight crew became aware of an approaching storm. They realized that if they delayed the takeoff, they would have to wait for the storm to pass, resulting in a lengthy 12-hour delay. This interruption would have entailed making overnight arrangements for the passengers, disrupting the crew’s schedule, and potentially impacting future flight schedules involving the aircraft and company personnel. Consequently, the crew made the decision to expedite the departure and take off before the typhoon made landfall on the island.

The Rushed Pilots Missed Clues That They Were Taking Off on a Closed Runway

Under immense time pressure, the flight crew became singularly focused on expediting their takeoff in rainy and windy conditions before the weather conditions deteriorated further. Despite being instructed to taxi to Runway 05 Left, they deviated from the assigned route and instead positioned themselves on Runway 05 Right, which was closed for takeoff due to ongoing pavement repairs.

Complicating matters, a section of Runway 05 Right was still being used as a taxiway during the construction period. The signage at the entrance of the runway did not adequately indicate the presence of a stop sign and construction equipment along the converted taxiway.

Moreover, the local air traffic controller failed to provide progressive taxi or ground movement instructions, which would have been appropriate considering the low visibility during the taxi. However, due to the crew’s heightened sense of urgency, they neglected to request step-by-step instructions for their taxi route.

Misleading Airport Markings Contributed to Pilots’ Mistaken Belief of Correct Runway Selection

In the midst of low visibility and feeling rushed, the pilots neglected crucial resources that could have guided them to the correct runway, such as runway and taxiway charts, signage, markings, and cockpit instruments. This lapse in judgment resulted in a loss of situational awareness, leading them to initiate takeoff from a runway closed for construction.

The Harsh Reality of Rushing: Examining the Aftermath of Singapore Airlines Flight 6's Closed Runway Mishap Approximately 3,300 feet down the runway, around 11:17 PM that night, the Boeing 747 collided with concrete barriers and construction equipment, resulting in the aircraft breaking apart and bursting into flames.

Tragically, 83 out of the 179 people on board lost their lives.

The crew’s loss of awareness was further compounded by the airport’s negligence in terms of maintenance and safety precautions. By failing to place mandatory construction warnings at the entrance of Runway 05 Right, they disregarded the potential risk of aircraft mistakenly attempting to take off from a partially closed runway.

The air traffic controllers also neglected to verify the aircraft’s position before granting takeoff clearances, despite the aircraft having turned onto Runway 05 Right. The airport lacked the necessary Airport Surface Detection Equipment, which could have been crucial in detecting and mitigating risks, especially given the heavy precipitation that could have hampered radar presentation at the time. In their defense, the pilots had assumed that the air traffic controllers could visually observe the aircraft, and the fact that takeoff clearance was issued just as the aircraft turned onto the taxiway gave them the impression that everything was in order.

Anxiety Leads to Attentional Tunneling and Narrowed Field of Focus

The tragedy of Singapore Airlines Flight 6 serves as a poignant case study highlighting the dangers of tunnel vision and its ability to hinder our perspective and decision-making.

Often, seemingly minor errors, when combined with time constraints and cognitive biases, can intertwine and escalate, leading to catastrophic outcomes. Even in a highly advanced cockpit and a complex system with numerous safeguards, a chain of minor errors can transform it into a deadly trap.

The human brain is naturally inclined to seek confirmation and convince itself that it completely understands the situation at hand. When faced with contradictory information, we tend to ignore it and focus solely on our preconceived notions. Furthermore, anxiety further impairs our ability to perceive the entire situation, leaving us prone to impulsive actions rather than rational responses.

It is vital to be aware of the perils of tunnel vision. It can close our eyes to the broader context and limit our capacity to consider peripheral information. This narrowed perception can have severe consequences, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a broader perspective in decision-making.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Effective Communication, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Conflict, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Risk, Stress, Worry

Availability Heuristic: Our Preference for the Familiar

May 27, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that can lead people to rely on readily available information or emotionally charged and inherently interesting examples when making decisions or judgments. Essentially, individuals tend to overestimate the probability of events that are easy to recall or that they’ve personally experienced, while underestimating the likelihood of less memorable or less frequent events.

In other words, the ease of retrieval of a misleading cue may make people rely on evidence not because it is dependable but because it is memorable or striking and thus psychologically available to them. They may do so even if the evidence is not logically acceptable or does not logically support their decision.

Doctors often depend on recalling their past dramatic cases and mistakenly apply them to the current situation. People may overestimate the crime rate in their community based on news coverage, even though crime rates may be relatively low. People may dismiss the reality of climate change if they’ve recently experienced a cold winter or heard of a cold snap in a particular region, even though global warming is a long-term trend. Individuals are more likely to purchase insurance after experiencing a natural disaster than before it occurs. In each of these scenarios, the vivid and emotional evidence feels more persuasive rather than it being the most accurate or reliable information.

The availability heuristic can also shape people’s perceptions of air travel safety and lead them to believe that flying is more dangerous than it really is. Airplane accidents are often sensationalized and highly publicized by the media, making them more memorable and more prominent in people’s minds. This can cause individuals to perceive the risk of flying much higher than it actually is, leading them to avoid air travel even though it is statistically one of the safest forms of transportation. In reality, many less vivid and less memorable (i.e., psychologically unavailable) things are much more dangerous than air travel, such as falling down stairs, drowning, choking, and accidental poisoning.

Avoid falling prey to the availability heuristic and making serious misjudgments about the risks associated with different situations. Acknowledge that personal experiences and recent events may not accurately reflect the overall reality of the situation.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Decision-Making, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Psychology, Risk, Thinking Tools

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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