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Archives for January 2020

The Boeing 737 MAX’s Achilles Heel

January 7, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Two thousand nineteen was one of the most turbulent years in Boeing’s history. Its 737 MACS (pardon the pun) troubles went from bad to worse to staggering when aviation regulators around the world grounded the aircraft and a steady trickle of disclosures increasingly exposed software problems and corners being cut.

The flaw in this aircraft, its anti-stall mechanism that relied on data from a single sensor, offers a particularly instructive case study of the notion of single point of failure.

One Fault Could Cause an Entire System to Stop Operating

A single point of failure of a system is an element whose failure can result in the failure of the entire system. (A system may have multiple single points of failure.)

Single points of failures are eliminated by adding redundancy—by doubling the critical components or simply backing them up, so that failure of any such element does not initiate a failure of the entire system.

Boeing Mischaracterized Its Anti-Stall System as Less-than-Catastrophic in Its Safety Analysis

The two 737 MAX crashes (with Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines) originate from a late-change that Boeing made in a trim system called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS.)

Without the pilot’s input, the MCAS could automatically nudge the aircraft’s nose downwards if it detects that the aircraft is pointing up at a dangerous angle, for instance, at high thrust during take-off.

Reliance on One Sensor is an Anathema in Aviation

The MCAS was previously “approved” by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA.) Nevertheless, Boeing made some design changes after the FAA approval without checking with the FAA again. The late-changes were made to improve MCAS’s response during low-speed aerodynamic stalls.

The MCAS system relied on data from just one Angle-of-Attack (AoA) sensor. With no backup, if this single sensor were to malfunction, erroneous input from that sensor would trigger a corrective nosedive just after take-off. This catastrophe is precisely what happened during the two aircraft crashes.

The AoA sensor thus became a single point of failure. Despite the existence of two angle-of-attack sensors on the nose of the aircraft, the MCAS system not only used data from either one of the sensors but also did not expect concurrence between the two sensors to infer that the aircraft was stalling. Further, Lion Air did not pay up to equip its aircraft with a warning light that could have alerted the crew to a disagreement between the AoA sensors.

Boeing Missed Safety Risks in the Design of the MAX’s Flight-Control System

Reliance on one sensor’s data is an egregious violation of a long-standing engineering principle about eliminating single points of failure. Some aircraft use three duplicate systems for flight control: if one of the three malfunctions, if two systems agree, and the third does not, the flight control software ignores the odd one out.

If the dependence on one sensor was not enough, Boeing, blinded by time- and price-pressure to stay competitive with its European rival Airbus, intentionally chose to do away with any reference to MCAS in pilot manuals to spare pilot training for its airline-customers. Indeed, Boeing did not even disclose the existence of the MCAS on the aircraft.

Boeing allows pilots to switch the trim system off to override the automated anti-stall system, but the pilots of the ill-fated Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines flights failed to do so.

Idea for Impact: Redundancy is the Sine Qua Non of Reliable Systems

In preparation for airworthiness recertification for the 737 MAX, Boeing has corrected the MCAS blunder by having its trim software compare inputs from two AoA sensors, alerting the pilots if the sensors’ readings disagree, and limiting MCAS’s authority.

One key takeaway from the MCAS disaster is this: when you devise a highly reliable system, identify all single points of failure, and investigate how these risks and failure modes can be mitigated. Examine if every component of a product or a service you work on is a single point of failure by asking, “If this component fails, does the rest of the system still work, and, more importantly, does it still do the function it is supposed to do?”

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Availability Heuristic: Our Preference for the Familiar
  2. Many Hard Leadership Lessons in the Boeing 737 MAX Debacle
  3. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  4. How Contributing Factors Stack Up and Accidents Unfold: A Case Study of the 2024 Delta A350 & CRJ-900 Collision
  5. What Airline Disasters Teach About Cognitive Impairment and Decision-Making Under Stress

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools

Inspirational Quotations #822

January 5, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi

Too austere a philosophy makes few wise men; too rigorous politics, few good subjects; too hard a religion, few persons whose devotion is of long continuance.
—Montesquieu (French Political Philosopher)

Of the things men give each other the greatest is loyalty.
—Ben Hecht (American Screenwriter)

Throw out an alarming alarm clock. If the ring is loud and strident, you’re waking up to instant stress. You shouldn’t be bullied out of bed, just reminded that it’s time to start your day.
—Sharon Anderson-Gold (American Philosopher)

In prosperity we need moderation; in adversity, patience.
—Lee Iacocca (American Businessperson)

He who does not accept and respect those who want to reject life does not truly accept and respect life itself.
—Thomas Szasz (Hungarian Psychiatrist)

Much of the messy advertising you see on television today is the product of committees. Committees can criticize advertisements, but they should never be allowed to create them.
—David Ogilvy (British Advertising Executive)

I believe that traditional wisdom is incomplete. A composer can have all the talent of Mozart and a passionate desire to succeed, but if he believes he cannot compose music, he will come to nothing. He will not try hard enough. He will give up too soon when the elusive right melody takes too long to materialize.
—Martin Seligman (American Psychologist)

People are twice as biased as they think they are, which is precisely why biases are dangerous.
—Morgan Housel (American Financial Journalist, Investor)

Not to be able to bear poverty is a shameful thing; but not to know how to chase it away by work is a more shameful thing yet.
—Pericles (Athenian Statesman)

Heaven is at the feet of mothers.
—Persian Proverb

Many have had their greatness made for them by their enemies.
—Baltasar Gracian (Spanish Philosopher, Prose Writer)

You can’t wait for inspiration. You have to go after it with a club.
—Jack London (American Novelist)

If someday they say of me that in my work I have contributed something to the welfare and happiness of my fellow man, I shall be satisfied.
—George Westinghouse (American Engineer)

Labor is a pleasure in itself.
—Marcus Manilius (Roman Poet)

Charity and personal force are the only investments worth anything.
—Walt Whitman (American Poet)

Memory is a complicated thing, a relative to truth, but not its twin.
—Barbara Kingsolver (American Novelist, Essayist)

Filed Under: Inspirational Quotations

How to Develop a Vision for Year 2020?

January 2, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment


Four Rules for Priority-Setting

As you think about what you want to achieve in the New Year, consider these four rules for priority setting laid down by the original management guru Peter Drucker in his seminal The Effective Executive (1966; my summary):

Courage rather than analysis dictates the truly important rules for identifying priorities:

  1. Pick the future as against the past;
  2. Focus on opportunity rather than on problems;
  3. Choose your own direction—rather than climb on the bandwagon; and
  4. Aim high, aim for something that will make a difference, rather than for something that is “safe” and easy to do.

How to Develop a Vision for 2020?

The first thing to do before thinking too far ahead in the future is to identify what success really means to you. Ask yourself, “It’s 31-Dec-2020 and the year 2020 is almost over. I am getting ready to celebrate the turn of the year with a tremendous sense of accomplishment. What have I achieved?”

Visualize a year 2020 wherein everything has turned out the way you’ve wanted. You have given it your best, worked your hardest, and achieved all your goals. Now write down what you imagine.

Take the time to think through and develop a clear picture of where you want yourself and your work- and personal lives to be in three months, six months, and one year.

This exercise is generally effective at helping folks differentiate between tasks that simply feel urgent or top-of-mind from those that are truly important.

Idea for Impact: Getting clear on your vision will help you create a path that feels the most meaningful, stimulating, and fulfilling to you.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. How to Turn Your Procrastination Time into Productive Time
  2. If Stuck, Propel Forward with a ‘Friction Audit’
  3. Use This Trick to Make Daily Habits Stick This Year
  4. Resolution Reboot: February’s Your Fresh Start
  5. Ask This One Question Every Morning to Find Your Focus

Filed Under: Career Development, Living the Good Life Tagged With: Discipline, Employee Development, Getting Ahead, Goals, Motivation, Targets, Time Management

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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Unless otherwise stated in the individual document, the works above are © Nagesh Belludi under a Creative Commons BY-NC-ND license. You may quote, copy and share them freely, as long as you link back to RightAttitudes.com, don't make money with them, and don't modify the content. Enjoy!