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Our 10 Most Popular Articles of 2021

December 31, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Here are our most popular exclusive features of 2021. Pass this on to your friends; if they like these, they can sign up to receive our RSS feeds or email updates.

  • If You’re Looking for Bad Luck, You’ll Soon Find It. Luck is sometimes the result of taking appropriate action. And, bad luck is sometimes the result of tempting fate.
  • Be Ready to Discover What You’re Not Looking For. Creativity is a disorderly journey. Much of the time, you may never get where you’re going. You may never find what you hope to find. Stay open to the new and the unexpected.
  • ‘Follow Your Passion’ is Bad Career Advice. It’s easier to pursue your passion if you can afford to work for free. Until then, seek the peace of mind that comes from being able to pay your bills and attaining financial stability.
  • Even the Best Need a Coach. Sometimes you can be too close to things to see the truth. Blind spots are less obvious when things are going well. Coaches can help you “break your actions down and then help you build them back up again.”
  • The Solution to a Problem Often Depends on How You State It. Defining a problem narrowly (“How can we create a better mousetrap?”) will only get you restricted answers. When you define the issue more broadly (“How can we get rid of mice?”) you open up a whole range of possibilities.
  • Consensus is Dangerous. Getting everyone on the same page can produce harmony—of the cult-like variety. Encourage dissent and counterevidence in decision-making.
  • Watch Out for the Availability Bias. Don’t be disproportionately swayed by what you remember. Don’t overreact to the recent facts.
  • Leadership is Being Visible at Times of Crises. Leadership means serving as an anchor during crisis times and being available, connected, and accessible during a crisis.
  • How to Think Your Way Out of a Negative Thought. A thought-out, levelheaded analysis of the situation can unshackle the mind’s echo chamber and nudge you to think your way out of a problem and look beyond it.
  • Witty Comebacks and Smart Responses for Nosy People. Don’t feel rude about quelling impolite boundary-violators. Responding snappishly but firmly will imply that that the issue is not open for further conversation.

And here are some articles of yesteryear that continue to be popular:

  • Lessons on adversity from Charlie Munger
  • The power of negative thinking
  • The Fermi Rule & Guesstimation
  • Fight ignorance, not each other
  • Care less for what other people think
  • Expressive writing can help you heal
  • Don’t let small decisions destroy your productivity
  • How smart companies get smarter
  • How to manage smart, powerful leaders
  • Accidents can happen when you least expect

We wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2022!

Wondering what to read next?

  1. How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward
  2. Maximize Your Chance Possibilities & Get Lucky
  3. Luck Doesn’t Just Happen
  4. The Best Way to Achieve Success is to Visualize Success
  5. Transformational Leadership Lessons from Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s Founding Father

Filed Under: Announcements, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Discipline, Risk, Skills for Success, Thinking Tools

Book Summary of Verne Harnish’s ‘The Greatest Business Decisions of All Time’

December 6, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'The Greatest Business Decisions' by Verne Harnish (ISBN 1603209786) The Greatest Business Decisions of All Time (2012) is a flatfooted anthology of 18 engaging—and oversimplified—business stories that influenced the course of business. Edited by management consultant Verne Harnish, this tome contains long articles by nine Fortune magazine journalists.

  1. Apple and the Return of Steve Jobs. The 1996 decision by Apple’s board of directors to bring back Jobs revived the company, transformed the consumer electronics industry, and made Apple one of the most valuable companies in the world.
  2. Zappos and Free Shipping. Zappos’s decision to offer free shipping and 365-day free returns lured more mainstream buyers onto the internet. Other retailers had no choice but to provide free shipping (albeit with some restrictions) and absorb the costs.
  3. Samsung and Global Immersion. In the early 1990s, Chairman Lee Kun-Hee instituted a policy to send his brightest young employees on international sabbaticals that exposed them to the local cultures and build business networks. This program later fuelled Samsung’s global ambitions.
  4. Johnson & Johnson and the Tylenol Comeback. Consistent with the company’s “patients come before profit” credo, CEO James E. Burke set the benchmark for crisis management when he decided to pull Tylenol off the shelves nationwide and create a tamper-proof bottle at the cost of $100 million. Johnson & Johnson cemented its reputation for responsible management.
  5. 3M’s 15% Free Time Rule and Innovation. 3M Company CEO William McKnight’s extraordinary idea of giving employees free time for “experimental doodling” yielded such innovative products as Post-It notes. 3M quickly diversified its portfolio and entered many consumer- and industrial-businesses. 3M inspired Google’s 20% rule.
  6. The “Intel Inside” Marketing Campaign. To forestall the commoditization of the computer chip, CEO Andy Grove shifted Intel’s image from that of a microprocessor company to that of a producer of a coveted, brand-name product that stood for performance. Intel became a household name that consumers sought when they purchased a computer.
  7. General Electric’s Jack Welch and Crotonville. Welch transformed GE’s sprawling management-training institute in Crotonville, New York, into a focal point of learning for the company.
  8. Bill Gates and His “Think Weeks.” The Microsoft founder’s twice-yearly retreat in rural isolation allowed him to read, reflect, and map out ideas—away from the distractions and the noise of business life.
  9. Softsoap and Impeding Competition. A small Minnesota company called Minnetonka Corp. developed liquid hand soap in the early 1980s. When Softsoap started flying off the shelves, deep-pocked behemoths like Procter & Gamble began to prototype their own variants. Minnetonka’s CEO Robert Taylor developed a smart strategy to block his giant competitors and keep his company’s market share. He purchased the entire U.S. supply of plastic pumps used in the liquid soap bottles for one year—that’s 100 million units from the only supplier. By the time his competitors had access to the plastic pumps, Taylor’s Softsoap’s brand was well established.
  10. Toyota and the Quality Revolution. Toyota’s institutional obsession with waste-reduction, zero defects, and process improvement has transformed manufacturing and inspired excellence in every service industry—including hospitals.
  11. Nordstrom and Customer Service Excellence. Nordstrom built its brand on “above-and-beyond” customer service and problem-solving. The entirety of the Nordstrom Employee Handbook fits on a 5×8 card and contains precisely one rule, “Use the best judgment in all situations. There will be no additional rules.”
  12. Tata Steel and Labor Relations. During a turbulent period of India’s leading steelmaker, Managing Director Jamshed J Irani confronted a bloated cost structure by reducing his 78,000-strong workforce to 40,000 by 2005. In keeping with the Tata Group’s rich philanthropic legacy, Irani offered decent pension plans and invested in labor welfare.
  13. Boeing 707 and the Jet Age. Boeing’s decision to develop the Boeing 707 at the cost of $185 million (more than the company’s market capitalization) “remade a company, an industry, and the very culture of its time.” The 707 was the first transatlantic commercial jetliner in an era of prop planes. It kicked off the Jet Age, revolutionized air travel, and established Boeing as a dominant airliner manufacturer.
  14. IBM and the Customer-Centric Makeover. In 1993, Lou Gerstner became CEO and embarked on an “Operation Bear Hug” to launch new communication pipelines between top executives and IBM’s customers. This helped transform IBM from an inwardly focused bureaucracy to a customer-centric market-driven innovator.
  15. Sam Walton and Walmart’s Saturday Morning Meeting. Walton’s energetic 6:00 A.M. meeting was a pep rally, merchandising workshop, and financial update—all rolled into one. He brainstormed with his store managers on how to improve things week after week and helped metamorphose Walmart from a single, small-town variety store in 1962 into the world’s largest retailer.
  16. Eli Whitney and the Dawn of American Technology. Whitney’s invention of the “saw gin” that worked well with short-staple cotton helped transform Southern agriculture (and sustain the institution of African slavery!) Whitney then popularized the use of interchangeable parts in making firearms.
  17. Bill Hewlett and David Packard and the “HP Way.” The essence of Hewlett-Packard’s management philosophy was an openness and respect for the employees. With a framework of principles and the simplicity of their management methods, they established many progressive management practices that prevail even today.
  18. Henry Ford and the Factory- and Wage-Revolution. When Ford introduced the moving assembly line, his fledging factory was confronting a dispirited workforce, declining workmanship and quality, absenteeism, and annual labor turnover of 370 percent. Then Ford decided to raise wages from $2.50 to $5 a day. The following week, Ford Motors had more than 26,000 job applicants. Ford increased production rates and slashed the per-unit cost of the Model T. Annual labor turnover fell to 16 percent, and Ford’s profits doubled within two years. Every time Ford increased the productivity of car production, he continued to raise wages. His well-paid workers had more to spend—and could afford the very cars they built.

Recommended: Quick read. The Greatest Business Decisions of All Time is a concise and entertaining read, especially if you like getting into heads, the thoughts, and the motivations of well-known business luminaries. The 18 case studies lack rigor and are beset with recency biases, narrative fallacies, and a misplaced sense of causes and effects. Some stories, e.g., the Softsoap one, aren’t well known.

Daniel Gross’s Forbes Greatest Business Stories of All Time (1997) is significantly more engrossing and instructional.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Learning from Amazon: Getting Your House in Order
  2. Innovation Without Borders: Shatter the ‘Not Invented Here’ Mindset
  3. FedEx’s ZapMail: A Bold Bet on the Future That Changed Too Fast
  4. Your Product May Be Excellent, But Is There A Market For It?
  5. The Best Advice Tony Blair Ever Got: Finding the Time to Think Strategically

Filed Under: Business Stories, Leadership Tagged With: Creativity, Innovation, Leadership Lessons, Thinking Tools

You Can’t Believe Those Scientific Studies You Read About in the Papers

November 11, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Look at the filler articles in the well-being section of your preferred newspaper, and you’ll often luck into health advice with nuance-free mentions of all sorts of scientific studies.

One week, drinking coffee is good for you. Next week it’s harmful. Ditto video games. Swearing makes you look intelligent, but hold your flipping horses … the next day, swearing makes you seem verbally challenged to explain your annoyances respectfully.

Gutter press revelations isn’t only less-than-scientific, but it actually defeats the objectives of science.

In June 2014, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published an allegedly peer-reviewed paper titled “Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.” The study deduced that hurricanes with feminine names generate more casualties supposedly because tacit sexism makes communities take the storms with a feminine name less seriously. The work was discredited as soon as its methods were dissected. Nevertheless, the dubious paper had made its way into media channels across the country because of the believability implied by the influential National Academy of Sciences.

Positive results that make a sensational headline tend to get published readily—especially if they speak to the audiences’ worldviews. In truth, many of these studies are low-quality studies where the variables are latent, and the effects aren’t directly observable and quantifiable, especially in the social sciences. Sadly, with the push to produce ever more papers in academia, peer review doesn’t necessarily corroborate the quality of research nearly so much as it enforces a discipline’s norms.

Idea for Impact: Let’s be skeptical readers. Let’s be better readers.

Let’s subject every claim to the common-sense test: is the claim possible, plausible, probable, and likely? Everything possible isn’t plausible, everything plausible isn’t probable, and everything probable isn’t likely.

Being skeptical does not mean doubting the validity of everything, nor does it mean being cynical. Instead, to be skeptical is to judge the validity of a claim based on objective evidence and understand the assertions’ nuances. Yes, even extraordinary claims can be valid, but the more extraordinary a claim, the more remarkable the evidence to be mobilized.

While we’re on the subject, have you heard about research that found that you could make unsuspecting people believe in anything by merely asserting that it’s been “shown by research?” Now then, the former’s the only research worth believing. Very much so, yes, even without evidence!

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Question Success More Than Failure
  2. What the Rise of AI Demands: Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking
  3. The Data Never “Says”
  4. What if Something Can’t Be Measured
  5. When Exaggerations Cross the Line

Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Questioning, Thinking Tools

Reinvent Everyday

October 26, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

General Electric supremo Jack Welch’s advice to Indian-American investor and businessman Vivek Paul:

Every time I land in New York after an international business trip, I imagine that I’ve just been appointed chairman and that this is my first day in the role, and the guy before me was a real dud. Every time I think, “What would I do that was different than the guy before? What big changes would I make?”

When you can think about expectations from a more detached point of view, rather than an immersed point of view, you aren’t overly invested in an entrenched pattern of thinking.

A period of rest, entertainment, or exposure to an alternative environment can dissipate fixation and help you gain a fresh perspective. It makes you think big. Subconsciously, you can push yourself harder and go after bigger, loftier, harder goals.

Idea for Impact: Don’t limit yourself by past expectations.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. You Can’t Develop Solutions Unless You Realize You Got Problems: Problem Finding is an Undervalued Skill
  2. Creativity by Imitation: How to Steal Others’ Ideas and Innovate
  3. Four Ideas for Business Improvement Ideas
  4. Innovation Without Borders: Shatter the ‘Not Invented Here’ Mindset
  5. Making Tough Decisions with Scant Data

Filed Under: Leadership, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Jack Welch, Leadership Lessons, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process, Winning on the Job

Seek a Fresh Pair of Eyes

October 14, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

When was the last time your team stopped to ask, “Why”?

“Why are we doing this?”

“Why are we doing it that way?”

You can ask this important question about everything—in your business or life!

We humans are creatures of habit—unquestioned and unexamined. Unless you intentionally ask “why,” you’ll just do things the same way because that the default mode for how you’ve always done it, or that’s how somebody showed you.

Once you’re set in your habits, keep scrutinizing them.

The best improvement ideas often come from people who aren’t stuck in the established ways.

Encourage new hires and interns to challenge the “that’s just how things are done around here” mentality when they disagree with it. Until they’ve been housetrained, they’re the ones with the freshest perspective.

Ask them to make a note of everything that they see and doesn’t make sense. After a few weeks, when they’ve become familiar with the organization and its workflow, have them reassess their initial opinions, reflect, and report their observations. Invite them to spend time on the internet looking for how these things are done at other companies and provide suggestions for improvement.

Idea for Impact: Sometimes people are too close to things to see the truth. To get a new perspective on the status quo, seek a fresh pair of eyes.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Question the Now, Imagine the Next
  2. Defect Seeding: Strengthen Systems, Boost Confidence
  3. Restless Dissatisfaction = Purposeful Innovation
  4. Unlocking Your Creative Potential: The Power of a Quiet Mind and Wandering Thoughts
  5. Four Ideas for Business Improvement Ideas

Filed Under: Mental Models, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Change Management, Conflict, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools

The Solution to a Problem Often Depends on How You State It

August 25, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Consider a family with four drivers and one car. Being a one-car family isn’t always convenient or even pleasant. Creative solutions can’t emerge if the family asks, “How could we make the car available to everybody who needs it when they need it?” If, instead, they ask, “How can we each meet our needs without using the car?” Mom can join a carpool to work. Dad can combine his trips when he runs errands once a week. The kids can ride their bikes whenever the weather favors. If the family needs to be in two places at the same time, somebody can Uber. Coordinating can be annoying, but with a bit of flexibility and communication, getting by with one car can easily be pulled off.

Defining a problem narrowly (“How can we create a better mousetrap?”) will only get you restricted answers. When you define the issue more broadly (“How can we get rid of mice?,”) you open up a whole range of possibilities.

Idea for Impact: Revisit and redefine the problem if you can’t get through the tensions inherent in conflicting expectations. The fresh perspective can open your mind to alternative interpretations.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Question the Now, Imagine the Next
  2. Defect Seeding: Strengthen Systems, Boost Confidence
  3. How to Solve a Problem By Standing It on Its Head
  4. What the Rise of AI Demands: Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking
  5. Disproven Hypotheses Are Useful Too

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Questioning, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Many Hard Leadership Lessons in the Boeing 737 MAX Debacle

August 24, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The U.S. House committee’s report on Boeing’s 737 MAX disaster makes interesting reading on contemporary leadership, particularly the pressures of rapid product development.

The rush to market and a culture of contributory negligence and concealment conspired to ensure that a not-yet-airworthy plane carried passengers into service, resulting in two fatal accidents and a long grounding.

Boeing’s design and development of the 737 MAX was marred by technical design failures, a lack of transparency with both regulators and customers, and efforts to downplay or disregard concerns about the operation of the aircraft.

Of particular importance are the “management failures,” “inherent conflicts of interest,” and “grossly insufficient oversight” at both Boeing and its regulator, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA.) Boeing failed to offset the design limitations and cost- and schedule-pressures in favor of attention to customer safety. Leadership was fixated on fending off the runaway success of the Airbus A320neo program.

The company relied on too many technical assumptions—and they couldn’t make themselves the space and time to be reasonable about any of this. Boeing’s “culture of concealment” and an “unwillingness to share technical details” are the report’s most damning indictment. Employees spoke but went unheard; indeed, their voices were suppressed.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. The Boeing 737 MAX’s Achilles Heel
  2. Availability Heuristic: Our Preference for the Familiar
  3. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235
  4. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  5. How to Guard Against Anything You May Inadvertently Overlook

Filed Under: Leadership Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Change Management, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools

Best/Worst Analysis: A Mental Model for Risk Aversion

August 2, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Dr. Ben Carson, who was part of the Trump Cabinet, established his reputation as a groundbreaking neurosurgeon in the Johns Hopkins medical system. In Take the Risk: Learning to Identify, Choose, and Live with Acceptable Risk (2009,) Carson reflects on fear, hesitation, and facing the risks he took for himself and his patients:

You don’t go into a field that requires cracking people’s heads open or operating on something as delicate as the spinal cord unless you are comfortable with taking risks.

Every day I make critical, split-second decisions that affect the longevity and the quality of other people’s lives. Taking such risks gives me pause. It forces me to think about my own life and the risks I face. Those experiences enable me to move forward and avoid becoming paralyzed by fear. As a result, I probably do a lot of things that more cautious people would never attempt.

Next time you’re fretting over how to proceed in a dicey situation, Carson suggests using a mental model he calls the ‘Best/Worst Risk Analysis.’

Putting on the optimist/pessimist hats and imagining the best-case/worst-case scenarios, ask yourself these questions:

  • What’s the best thing that can happen if I do it?
  • What’s the worst thing that can happen if I do it?
  • What’s the best thing that can happen if I don’t do it?
  • What’s the worst that can happen if I don’t do it?

It’s a variation of Ben Franklin’s humble “pro et contra” (“for and against”) system for decision-making.

Research has shown that this Best/Worst Risk Analysis mental model promotes shared decision-making. In the surgical environment, it helps surgeons organize challenging treatment dialogs to support patients and their families. This mental model helps surgeons communicate by turning the refocus of decision-making conversations from a surgical problem’s uncertainties to discussing treatment alternatives and potential outcomes.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Airline Disasters Teach About Cognitive Impairment and Decision-Making Under Stress
  2. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  3. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  4. Summary of Richard Carlson’s ‘Don’t Sweat The Small Stuff’
  5. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom, Worry

More Data Isn’t Always Better

July 23, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The hype around so-called ‘big data’ seems to have convinced many that unless the data and analytics are ‘big,’ they won’t have a big impact.

In reality, though, your organization can generate tons of value from the prudent use of smallish data.

Furthermore, you just don’t need big data tools such as Hadoop to solve every data analytics challenge you’ll face. In many cases, humble Microsoft Excel is all you’ll want.

More Data Isn't Always Better - Big Data. Often the missing gap isn’t in big data technologies but in data science skills. The rapid rise in your ability to collect data needs to be seconded by your ability to support, manage, filter, and interpret the data.

Idea for Impact: With data, more isn’t necessarily better. Small data can still have a significant impact. Rather than collecting data for the sake of it, identify why you need data and then go get the most meaningful data that can answer the questions you have.

Focus not on whether the data is small or big but on the problem you’re trying to solve.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Protect the Downside with Pre-mortems
  2. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  3. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  4. Making Tough Decisions with Scant Data
  5. Defect Seeding: Strengthen Systems, Boost Confidence

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom

Always Be Ready to Discover What You’re Not Looking For

July 19, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Corn flakes were born (1894) when the Kellogg brothers inadvertently left a pot of boiled wheat overnight on a stove. They passed the flaky dough through bread rollers and baked the flakes to create a crunchy snack.

The Penicillin mold was discovered (1928) by Sir Alexander Fleming, who, upon returning from a vacation, saw a Petri dish that he had left behind without disinfecting. That Petri dish had a zone around an invading fungus where his Staphylococcus bacterium culture had not grown. A mold spore from another lab in the building had accidentally fallen on this culture. The spore had grown while Fleming was away. Rather than throw the dirty Petri dish away, he isolated the mold and identified it as belonging to the Penicillium genus, which kills bacteria by inhibiting new cell walls.

The microwave oven was invented (1945) unintentionally during an experiment by Percy Spencer of Raytheon Corporation. Electromagnetic waves from a new vacuum tube melted a chocolate bar in his pocket while standing next to a magnetron.

Viagra had been developed (1989) as the chemical compound sildenafil citrate to treat hypertension and angina pectoris. Researchers found during the first phase of clinical trials that the compound was good for something else. It was approved for medical use in 1998.

Serendipity is a rich idea that is very central to the creative process. Lots of ideas evolve when you’re working on something unrelated. Physiologist Julius H. Comroe Jr. once said, “Serendipity is looking in a haystack for a needle and discovering a farmer’s daughter.”

Idea for Impact: Creativity is a disorderly journey. Much of the time, you may never get where you’re going. You may never find what you hope to find. Yet still, you must stay open to the new and the unexpected.

Explore how to transform serendipitous ‘mistakes’ into breakthroughs.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Constraints Inspire Creativity: How IKEA Started the “Flatpack Revolution”
  2. Ideas Evolve While Working on Something Unrelated
  3. The #1 Clue to Disruptive Business Opportunity
  4. Unlocking Your Creative Potential: The Power of a Quiet Mind and Wandering Thoughts
  5. Luck Doesn’t Just Happen

Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Entrepreneurs, Innovation, Luck, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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