• Skip to content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Right Attitudes

Ideas for Impact

Targets

How to Develop a Vision for Year 2020

January 2, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment


Four Rules for Priority-Setting

As you think about what you want to achieve in the New Year, consider these four rules for priority-setting laid down by the original management guru Peter Drucker in his seminal The Effective Executive (1966; my summary):

Courage rather than analysis dictates the truly important rules for identifying priorities:

  1. Pick the future as against the past;
  2. Focus on opportunity rather than on problems;
  3. Choose your own direction—rather than climb on the bandwagon; and
  4. Aim high, aim for something that will make a difference, rather than for something that is “safe” and easy to do.

How to Develop a Vision for 2020?

Four Rules for Priority-Setting The first thing to do before thinking too far ahead in the future is to identify what success really means to you. Ask yourself, “It’s 31-Dec-2020 and the year 2020 is almost over. I am getting ready to celebrate the turn of the year with a tremendous sense of accomplishment. What have I achieved?”

Visualize a year 2020 wherein everything has turned out the way you’ve wanted. You have given it your best, worked your hardest, and achieved all your goals. Now write down what you imagine.

Take the time to think through and develop a clear picture of where you want yourself and your work- and personal lives to be in three months, six months, and one year.

This exercise is generally effective at helping folks differentiate between tasks that simply feel urgent or top-of-mind from those that are truly important.

Idea for Impact: Getting clear on your vision will help you create a path that feels the most meaningful, stimulating, and fulfilling to you.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. How to Turn Your Procrastination Time into Productive Time
  2. Use This Trick to Make Daily Habits Stick This Year
  3. Your To-Do List Isn’t a Wish List: Add to It Selectively
  4. Ask This One Question Every Morning to Find Your Focus
  5. Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]

Filed Under: Career Development, Living the Good Life Tagged With: Discipline, Employee Development, Getting Ahead, Goals, Motivation, Targets, Time Management

How to Turn Your Procrastination Time into Productive Time

August 1, 2019 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

“Energy, not time, is the fundamental currency of high performance,” assert Tony Schwartz and Jim Loehr in The Power of Full Engagement. They advocate practicing energy management in addition to time management and prescribe “pulsing,” or interspersing periods of intense work with breaks to renew your energy levels.

This idea of energy management comports with the much-debated “muscle metaphor” of willpower. Mental stamina and personal energy are reservoirs. They get depleted as you go about your day, and need to be filled up every so often.

How to Turn Your Procrastination Time into Productive Time

Idea for Impact: Match your tasks to your energy levels throughout the day

If you know yourself sufficiently well, you can make deliberate, proactive choices that can help you sustain your drive and feel more energetic all through the day.

First, identify the kinds of tasks that deplete or sustain your energy.

Once you discover your working pattern, match your tasks to your energy levels throughout the day. If you are at your best first thing in the morning, work on something complex and challenging as soon as you get to the office.

Relegate routine task tasks and administrative chores—processing emails, scheduling appointments, filing reports—for the afternoon.

Create a “Procrastination To-Do List”

Consider preparing a special “to-do” list with low-energy, low-brainpower, low-priority, but got-to-do tasks for when you don’t feel like doing anything else. (See this list of 10 smart things you can do in 10 minutes.)

In other words, whenever your brain needs time to rest, you can idle productively by getting something else done. You can tackle this list whenever you find yourself with time on hand, but without the energy, focus, or excitement that you need to deal with something important. Some folks call this the “procrastination to-do list.”

Be warned, though, that doing mindless-but-productive tasks during procrastinating is the thin end of the wedge—it can simply feed your propensity to procrastinate. Under the illusion of not procrastinating and “getting something done,” you will want to do all the less-important things that you can do instead of building momentum and switching to the few high-priority things that you must do.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Use This Trick to Make Daily Habits Stick This Year
  2. Ask This One Question Every Morning to Find Your Focus
  3. 5 Minutes to Greater Productivity [Two-Minute Mentor #11]
  4. How to Banish Your Inner Perfectionist
  5. How to … Make Work Less Boring

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Discipline, Goals, Lifehacks, Mindfulness, Motivation, Procrastination, Targets, Time Management

Ask This One Question Every Morning to Find Your Focus

July 29, 2019 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Here’s a précis of psychologist Ron Friedman’s HBR article on how to spend the first ten minutes of your day:

Ask yourself this question the moment you sit at your desk: The day is over and I am leaving the office with a tremendous sense of accomplishment. What have I achieved?

This exercise is usually effective at helping people distinguish between tasks that simply feel urgent from those that are truly important. Use it to determine the activities you want to focus your energy on.

Then—and this is important—create a plan of attack by breaking down complex tasks into specific actions. Studies show that when it comes to goals, the more specific you are about what you’re trying to achieve, the better your chances of success.

Idea for Impact: Organize Yourself Good Concentration

Ask This One Question Every Morning to Find Your Focus Starting your day by mulling over proactively on “what should I have achieved” is a wonderful aid in keeping the mind headed in the right direction.

Planning is easier when your energy levels are highest, which, for most people, is first thing in the morning.

Knowing what your goals are before you launch your day can help you focus the mind and hold it steadily to one thing at a time and in the right order.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. A Guaranteed Formula for Success: Identify Your #1 Priority and Finish It First
  2. Zeigarnik Effect: How Incomplete Tasks Trigger Stress [Mental Models]
  3. Keep Your Eyes on the Prize [Two-Minute Mentor #9]
  4. Personal Energy: How to Manage It and Get More Done // Summary of ‘The Power of Full Engagement’
  5. How to Banish Your Inner Perfectionist

Filed Under: Living the Good Life, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Decision-Making, Discipline, Efficiency, Getting Things Done, Mindfulness, Motivation, Procrastination, Questioning, Tardiness, Targets, Task Management, Time Management, Winning on the Job

How to Prevent Employee Exhaustion

November 8, 2018 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How to Prevent Employee Exhaustion Feeling exhausted, irritated, unhappy, and lacking in control are all signs of burnout—a temporary decline in an employee’s well-being.

If you notice a drop in energy, motivation, or productivity, try these simple ways to help combat employee exhaustion:

  • Clarify expectations
  • Where possible, lower the standards and relax the deadlines. Encourage less perfection.
  • Give employees the right tools and resources that they need to do their job effectively
  • Allocate some tasks to other employees
  • Appreciate, reward, recognize
  • Give employees some time off
  • Reduce travel and meetings
  • Offer counseling and mentoring

Employee stress and problems at work that are not dealt with effectively can quickly spill out into other parts of an employee’s life. In fact, many marriages go bad when stress at work is at its worst: people use up all their willpower on the job; their home lives suffer because they give much to their work.

Make employee welfare a key area of focus to promote better work environments and keep employees engaged.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Four Telltale Signs of an Unhappy Employee
  2. Learn to Cope When You’re Stressed
  3. How to Clear Your Mental Horizon
  4. Don’t Push Employees to Change
  5. Do Your Team a Favor: Take a Vacation

Filed Under: Health and Well-being, Leading Teams, Managing People, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Balance, Coaching, Emotions, Great Manager, Mentoring, Stress, Targets, Time Management

When Stress is Good

November 5, 2018 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Stress and Anxiety Can Lead to Improved Performance

Why Some Stress Is Good for You Many people claim that they work best under pressure. There’s some truth to that. Stress is a natural response in highly competitive environments. Before an exam, important meeting, or contest, your heart rate rises and so does your blood pressure. You become more absorbed, alert, and efficient.

However, this favorable relationship applies only up to a certain level of stress. Past this level, stress impairs your performance—and eventually your heart.

In 1908, Harvard psychologists Robert Yerkes and John Dodson first described the beneficial and harmful effects of stress (“psychological arousal”) on performance in a graph the shape of an upside-down U. According to the Yerkes-Dodson Law, the ascendant curve reflects the energizing effect of arousal. The descendant curve reflects the negative effects of stress on thinking and learning, or performance in general.

Too Much Anxiety and Stress Impairs Performance, but so Does Too Little: The Yerkes-Dodson Law

Many physiological studies have demonstrated that stress enhances your performance by causing your brain to use more of its capabilities, improve memory and intelligence, and increase productivity. Without stress, athletes, performers, executives, and students are likely to underachieve.

There is an optimum level of arousal for every kind of task. So how do you find the right balance? How do you get yourself into the performance zone where stress is most helpful? How much stress is good? The answers depend on individual disposition, the types of stressors, the nature of the task itself, and perceptions of what is stressful to you.

When Stress is Good: The Yerkes-Dodson Law

Idea for Impact: Stress at Work May Be Inevitable but it Doesn’t Have to Be Detrimental

Stress can be a motivator. But don’t seek out stress—less of it is better. Make the stress you do have work for you. Becoming conscious of stress as a potential positive can reduce the harm it causes.

  • Develop an awareness of when you hit the limits beyond which working longer or harder is counter-productive (sportsmen tend to choke under intense pressure.) When you feel overwhelmed, look for ways to reduce or eliminate the stressors so you can become more productive again. Ask for help.
  • Performance deteriorates when your stress level is either too high or too low for a given task. Seek the optimal level of anxiety that can impel you forward without causing you to fight back or give up.

Idea for Impact: The Right Level of Anxiety Can Be a Positive Force for Driving Employees Forward

Anxiety and optimal performance is an individual affair. The Yerkes-Dodson Curve shifts as the performers become established and experienced with the undertaking.

Astute managers repeatedly assess and re-assess where their team members land on the Yerkes-Dodson Curve. Managers can identify over-stressed or under-motivated circumstances with employees and intervene quickly to tailor the level of stress.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Lessons from the Princeton Seminary Experiment: People in a Rush are Less Likely to Help Others (and Themselves)
  2. Beware the Opportunity Cost of Meditating
  3. Cope with Anxiety and Stop Obsessive Worrying by Creating a Worry Box
  4. Expressive Writing Can Help You Heal
  5. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235

Filed Under: Managing People, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Decision-Making, Introspection, Mindfulness, Motivation, Procrastination, Stress, Targets, Worry

Lessons from Peter Drucker: Quit What You Suck At

March 1, 2018 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Peter Drucker and Jack Welch on Strategic Prioritization: Strengthen or Abandon

The essence of leadership is risk- and opportunity-assessment and resource allocation. It follows that one of the persistent responsibilities of leadership is to mull over each individual and organizational endeavor and investigate, “Do we produce results that are meaningful and profitable enough for us to justify investing our resources to this purpose?”

Jack Welch’s Strategy for General Electric: #1 or #2 Businesses Only

When Jack Welch became CEO of General Electric (GE) in 1981, he set out to make GE “the world’s most competitive enterprise.” However, the company was a hodgepodge of many businesses—some unrelated or irrelevant, several unprofitable, and a few at the brink of failure.

Management pioneer Peter Drucker famously advised Welch to ask of each constituent of the GE business portfolio he now presided over, “If you weren’t already this business, would you enter it today? And, if the answer is no, what are you going to do about it?”

Welch’s responded with his legendary dictum that every GE division be—or become—the leading or the runner-up business in its respective industry, or plan to exit it completely.

Welch argued that in many markets, the number three, four, five, or six players suffered the most during cyclical downturns. On the contrary, number one or number two businesses could protect their market share by way of aggressive pricing approaches or by developing new products. Welch’s approach portended the emergence of oligopolies in many industries.

The resultant strategic focus eventually led to an immense restructuring of GE. Welch sold or discontinued dozens of divisions—including computers and time-shares. Over the next decade, he cut nearly one in four jobs at GE, warranting the nickname “Neutron Jack.”

By year 2000, GE had reached dominance or near dominance in most of its business markets across the globe.

Peter Drucker on Strategic Reprioritization

'Post-Capitalist Society' by Peter Drucker (ISBN 0887306616) Explaining this method of strategic reprioritization, Drucker wrote in Post-Capitalist Society (1993,)

To turn around any institution—whether a business, a labor union, a university, a hospital, or a government—requires always the same three steps:

  1. Abandonment of the things that do not work, the things that have never worked; the things that have outlived their usefulness and their capacity to contribute;
  2. Concentration on the things that do work, the things that produce results, the things that improve the organization’s capacity to perform; and
  3. Analysis of the half successes, half failures. A turnaround requires abandoning whatever does not perform and doing more of whatever does perform.

'Five Most Important Questions' by Peter Drucker (ISBN 0470227567) Drucker further elaborated on abandonment as the keystone for strategic reprioritization in his Five Most Important Questions (2015,)

To abandon anything is always bitterly resisted. People in any organization are always attached to the obsolete—the things that should have worked but did not, the things that once were productive and no longer are. They are most attached to what in an earlier book I called “investments in managerial ego.” Yet abandonment comes first. Until that has been accomplished, little else gets done. The acrimonious and emotional debate over what to abandon holds everybody in its grip. Abandoning anything is thus difficult, but only for a fairly short spell. Rebirth can begin once the dead are buried; six months later, everybody wonders, “Why did it take us so long?”

Idea for Impact: Assess What Endeavors Must Be Intensified or Abandoned

Don’t do—or continue to do—something just because it’s been a tradition, custom, or habit. Strengthen, abandon, or stay on. Align your efforts with your mission, your values, and the results you want to achieve.

If you abandon something important mistakenly, you can quickly pick up where you left off.

Invest your precious resources where the returns are rich.

Figure out what’s vital and stay focused, even if you have to cut your losses (read about sunk costs.)

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Let Go of Sunk Costs
  2. Book Summary: Jack Welch, ‘The’ Man Who Broke Capitalism?
  3. Zeigarnik Effect: How Incomplete Tasks Trigger Stress [Mental Models]
  4. Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]
  5. Warren Buffett’s Advice on How to Focus on Priorities and Subdue Distractions

Filed Under: Business Stories, Leadership, Leading Teams, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Decision-Making, Discipline, Jack Welch, Leadership, Leadership Lessons, Management, Peter Drucker, Strategy, Targets, Time Management, Wisdom

Warren Buffett’s Advice on How to Focus on Priorities and Subdue Distractions

December 8, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

If you persistently experience an overpowering sense of being besieged with tasks and responsibilities, perhaps a personal productivity transformation technique suggested by Warren Buffett may help.

Psychologist Angela Duckworth of the University of Pennsylvania shares a well-known anecdote about Buffett in her bestselling Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance:

The story goes like this: Buffett turns to his faithful pilot and says that he must have dreams greater than flying Buffett around to where he needs to go. The pilot confesses that, yes, he does. And then Buffett takes him through three steps.

First, you write down a list of twenty-five career goals.

Second, you do some soul-searching and circle the five highest-priority goals. Just five.

Third, you take a good hard look at the twenty goals you didn’t circle. These you avoid at all costs. They’re what distract you; they eat away time and energy, taking your eye from the goals that matter more.

As I’ve written before (see the world’s shortest course in time management, and detailed three-step course on time logging, time analysis, time budgeting,) the most effective time management practice involves eliminating the non-essentials—those numerous things you can and want to do—and focusing on the very few things you must do.

Idea for Impact: Success comes at a cost: the most time-effective folks I know are significantly better at dropping their second-rate objectives.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Get Your Priorities Straight
  2. Zeigarnik Effect: How Incomplete Tasks Trigger Stress [Mental Models]
  3. Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]
  4. Let Go of Sunk Costs
  5. Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost

Filed Under: Living the Good Life, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Balance, Biases, Decision-Making, Discipline, Procrastination, Targets, Task Management, Thought Process, Time Management

Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost

August 8, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

“Opportunity cost is a huge filter in life. If you’ve got two suitors who are really eager to have you and one is way the hell better than the other, you do not have to spend much time with the other. And that’s the way we filter out buying opportunities.”
—Charlie Munger, Investor

Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost

Doing One Thing Makes You Sacrifice the Opportunity to Do Something Else of Value

In economics, opportunity cost is the cost of not choosing the next best alternative for your money, time, or some other resource.

One of the foundational principles in economics is affirmed by the popular American aphorism, “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.” Resources are scarce. When resources (time, money, mindshare, autonomy, and all that) are scarce, selecting one opportunity necessitates forgoing other opportunities.

Life is all about values and priorities. You face trade-offs. Life requires of you to make choices among mutually exclusive alternatives. Every time you select something, you forfeit other alternatives and the concomitant benefits. The cost of something is what you will give up to get it. This is opportunity cost.

You Can Do Anything but Not Everything … What Will You Sacrifice When You Choose One Option Over the Others?

When mulling over multiple choices, the quality of any option cannot be assessed in isolation from its alternatives. The price you pay (or the sacrifice you make, or the benefits you give up) for doing what you’ve chosen to do instead of doing something else is the opportunity cost.

In sum, an opportunity cost is the cost of passing up the opportunities that a different option would have afforded.

Many costs are calculated in terms of money. However, just because you don’t have to spend money to do something does not imply that the options you face are without their costs. For example, you don’t have to spend money to go for a hike or watch a sunset, but there is an opportunity cost there too. You could have used that time to do something else you value—visiting a friend or reading a book, perhaps.

  • If you decide to invest two years and some $100,000 getting an MBA at a brand-name business school, there’s an opportunity cost; it costs you lost wages and all the things you could have pursued during that time and with that money. But you anticipate that getting your MBA will pay off by way of a better job in a better company with a better salary.
  • If you spend your weeklong vacation taking your parents to a beach destination in Florida, there’s the opportunity cost of not going to Paris with your spouse.
  • Opportunity Costs Apply to All Your Choices If you decide to wake up twenty minutes earlier in the mornings to leave home sooner to work and beat the horrendous traffic, there’s the opportunity cost of twenty minutes of extra snoozing.
  • When the refrigerator at home breaks down and needs replacement, you will have to give up buying that latest big-screen TV you’ve been coveting.
  • There’s an opportunity cost to even reading this article at this moment. You could have been watching TV, taking a nap, calling up a friend, or moving on to another article in the time you’re devoting to reading this article.

In a nutshell, even decisions that appear to be no-brainers carry the hidden costs of the options you will decline. Thinking about opportunity costs may not change the decision you make, but it will give you a more rational assessment of the full implications of your decision.

Opportunity Costs Apply to All Your Choices—Big and Small

Opportunity cost is a concept of great magnitude. It is one of those apparently simple concepts in social sciences that are difficult to master and tough to put into consistent practice. Tim Harford, the British author of The Undercover Economist offers a particularly instructive example of appreciating opportunity costs in his Financial Times column:

Consider the following puzzle, a variant of which was set by Paul J Ferraro and Laura O Taylor to economists at a major academic conference back in 2005. Imagine that you have a free ticket (which you cannot resell) to see Radiohead performing. But, by a staggering coincidence, you could also go to see Lady Gaga—there are tickets on sale for £40. You’d be willing to pay £50 to see Lady Gaga on any given night, and her concert is the best alternative to seeing Radiohead. Assume there are no other costs of seeing either gig. What is the opportunity cost of seeing Radiohead? (a) £0, (b) £10, (c) £40 or (d) £50.

…

Answer: Going to see Lady Gaga would cost £40 but you’re willing to pay £50 any time to see her; therefore the net benefit of seeing Gaga is £10. If you use your free Radiohead ticket instead, you’re giving up that benefit, so the opportunity cost of seeing Radiohead is £10.

Charlie Munger’s Wisdom on Opportunity Cost

  • On the subject of making choices in life based on opportunity costs, Munger stated at a 2010 lecture at Harvard-Westlake preparatory school, “The right way to make decisions in practical life is based on your opportunity cost. When you get married, you have to choose the best spouse you can find that will have you. The rest of life is the same damn way.”
  • Explaining how Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway use opportunity costs to make investment decisions, Munger detailed stated at the aforementioned Harvard-Westlake lecture, “Berkshire Hathaway is constantly kicking off ideas in about two seconds flat. We know we’ve got opportunity X, which is better than the new opportunity. Why do we want to waste two seconds thinking about the new opportunity? Many of you come from places that don’t do that. You’ve got to have one horse, one rabbit, one something or rather, and that rabbit is going to be thinking about something which would be ruled out immediately by an opportunity cost available generally to the place—but, it’s a different department. You have to be diversified and so on and so on. It’s easy to drift into this idea that opportunities don’t matter, you’ve got so many different ways of doing things that are better. It isn’t better.”
  • Putting the concept of opportunity cost into operation requires benchmarking any prospective decision to other available alternatives. At the 2006 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Munger advised, “In the real world, you have to find something that you can understand that’s the best you have available. And once you’ve found the best thing, then you measure everything against that because it’s your opportunity cost. That’s the way small sums of money should be invested. And the trick, of course, is getting enough expertise that your opportunity cost—meaning your default option, which is still pretty good—is very high…. Most people aren’t going to find thousands of things that are equally good; they’re going to find a few things where one or two of them are way better than anything else they know. And the right way to think about investing is to act thinking about your best opportunity cost.”

Learn to Evaluate Life Choices Via the Lens of Opportunity Costs—The Stakes Become Clearer

Evaluate Life Choices Via the Lens of Opportunity Costs You live in a world of scarcity and must therefore make choices. You cannot avoid regret since there are opportunity costs for every choice you will make.

Everything in life is about opportunity costs. Every time you say “yes” to a choice, you are also saying “no” to everything else you may have accomplished with your time, money, and resources.

Opportunity cost is a commanding tool that you should be wise to apply to all decision-making. If you integrate this concept into your thought process, you will not only make judicious choices, but also better understand the world in which you live.

Idea for Impact: Whether you’re choosing graduate school, mulling over switching careers, starting a business, investing your money, buying a car, or frittering away your evening watching TV, considering the value of forgone alternatives will help you make better choices. Make the lens of opportunity costs the underpinning of your decision-making processes.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Don’t Ruminate Endlessly
  2. Books in Brief: “Hell Yeah or No” Mental Model
  3. Zeigarnik Effect: How Incomplete Tasks Trigger Stress [Mental Models]
  4. Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]
  5. Let Go of Sunk Costs

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Balance, Clutter, Decision-Making, Discipline, Negotiation, Perfectionism, Persuasion, Procrastination, Simple Living, Stress, Targets, Thought Process, Time Management, Wisdom

Let Go of Sunk Costs

July 4, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

When people put their weight behind an idea or a belief, they become invested in it. They are likely to fight its corner rather than discard that idea or renounce their prior decision.

This tendency to throw good resources after bad, rather than cut losses, is the Sunk Cost Fallacy.

Quitting is Not Always Wrong

'Thinking, Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahneman (ISBN 0374275637) People frequently become stuck with poor decisions that they keep holding on to in hopes that they will eventually prove their efforts worthwhile. Here’s Nobel laureate in economics Daniel Kahneman (author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the bestselling exposition of human irrationality) in an interview with financial journalist Morgan Housel:

When I work I have no sunk costs. I like changing my mind. Some people really don’t like it but for me changing my mind is a thrill. It’s an indication that I’m learning something. So I have no sunk costs in the sense that I can walk away from an idea that I’ve worked on for a year if I can see a better idea. It’s a good attitude for a researcher. The main trap that young researchers fall into is sunk costs. They get to work on a project that doesn’t work and that is not promising but they keep at it. I think too much persistence can be bad for you in the intellectual world.

Don’t Become Biased Against Quitting

Sunk cost fallacy, also called the Concorde Effect Sunk cost fallacy is why people who have already wasted money on tickets to an awful movie continue to watch it to the end and waste their time instead of walking out of the cinema hall. It’s the urge to justify previous decisions using the next one—for example, when people force themselves to munch their way through an unsavory meal at a restaurant or when people waste time in dead-end romantic relationships because they’ve already devoted so much time to the relationships and irrationally hope things will improve someway.

Some leaders continue a project once an initial investment is made and found flawed because stopping the project would be tantamount to conceding that previously-allocated resources have been wasted. For this reason, the sunk cost fallacy is also called the ‘Concorde Effect’ after the Anglo-French supersonic jet. In the ’60s, even though there was never a sufficient demand from airlines for the Concorde, the British and French governments continued to subsidize the development and production of the Concorde instead of admitting that they had wasted billions on a non-viable undertaking. The airline industry had long understood that the economics of supersonic transport were dubious, which had forced Americans to abandon their preliminary studies of supersonic jets.

Idea for Impact: Let to Cut Your Losses When Something’s Not Working

Sunk cost fallacy - Know How to Cut Your Losses When Something's Not Working Sunk costs are backward-looking decisions. Don’t become excessively focused on a specific goal or outcome—you’ll become inflexible and unyielding. You’ll narrow your options and make yourself feel more limited and inhibited.

Don’t get attached to ideas and become affected by the sunk cost fallacy as your projects develop. Remain objective, identify the warning signs of losing propositions, and abandon lost causes where sensible. As the American cartoonist Charles Schulz of Peanuts fame once said, “No problem is so formidable that you cannot walk away from it.”

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Zeigarnik Effect: How Incomplete Tasks Trigger Stress [Mental Models]
  2. Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]
  3. Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost
  4. Warren Buffett’s Advice on How to Focus on Priorities and Subdue Distractions
  5. Don’t Ruminate Endlessly

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Decision-Making, Discipline, Procrastination, Targets, Thought Process, Time Management, Wisdom

Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]

March 24, 2017 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Think of your weekend days. You typically wake up and think of all the free time at hand. You plan a day of leisure. You intend to run some errands and get a few things done around the house. Yet, at the end of the day, you’ve done barely half of what you originally set out to do.

People Habitually Underestimate the Time Tasks Take

Almost everything that humankind has ever wished for—from renewing a driver’s license to achieving peace between countries at war—seems to have not completed within the time originally planned.

As the following case studies will illustrate, interruptions, deferrals, and delays characteristically result in cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and disputes.

  • Sydney’s Opera House was originally forecast in 1957 to be completed in 1963. The magnificent performing arts complex formally opened only in 1973 and cost 15 times the original budget.
  • Hofstadter's Law: Boeing 787 Dreamliner Delays and LossesWhen Boeing first launched its 787 Dreamliner aircraft in 2004, it ambitiously planned for first flight in September 2007. After six delays in the design and prototype phases, the 787 first flew only in December 2009. First aircraft delivery was scheduled for 2008, but didn’t happen until September 2011, more than three years behind schedule. Then, after a series of early in-service technical and operational problems, Boeing embarked on serious drawn-out repairs on 787s. Following yet more production delays, the 787 started flying full-fledged only in 2013. The innumerable delays and cost overruns associated with the 787 program became a financial nightmare for Boeing’s investors. Boeing took nine years to get the Dreamliner off the drawing board and into mature service at a total development cost of $32 billion—twice as long as the company’s original estimation and more than five times more expensive.
  • Less than 50 days before the start of last year’s Summer Olympic Games in Brazil, the state of Rio de Janeiro declared a “state of public calamity” citing severe delays and acute cost overruns. The New York Times reported, “The city is a huge construction site. Bricks and pipes are piled everywhere; a few workers lazily push wheelbarrows as if the Games were scheduled for 2017.”

Hofstadter’s Law: We Chronically Underestimate the Time Things Take

Hofstadter's Law: We Chronically Underestimate the Time Things TakeThe American cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter conceived an ironic and recursive rule to characterize the observation that everything takes longer than planned.

Hofstadter’s Law states, “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s law”

Hofstadter first discussed this law in his Pulitzer Prize-winning Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, a book popular among American computer programmers.

Underestimating Task-Time Means Constantly Rushing to Finish Things

According to planning fallacy, when people predict the time it takes to complete a task, they make their estimations by considering the various steps they have to take, but fail to imagine the pessimistic conditions where things could go wrong.

Project Delays: Hofstadter's Law, Planning Fallacy and Optimism BiasIn other words, thanks to optimism bias, people are generally too optimistic about the time it takes for them to complete a task, even when they are explicitly asked to think about potential obstacles.

Hofstadter’s Law also alludes to,

  • Superiority Bias where people overrate their own positive qualities and abilities—and underrate their negative qualities—when compared with others. “This takes three hours for the average Joe, but I am smarter, and I can do it in two hours.”
  • Beneffectance Bias where people perceive themselves as selectively accountable for the desired—but not the undesired—outcomes. “Last week, this took me 45 minutes, but the delay was because of conditions beyond my control. Today, I have full control; so I should take just 20 minutes.”

Idea for Impact: The problem with unforeseen delays is that you can’t foresee them, no matter how comprehensively you plan

Though somewhat silly in its recursive character, Hofstadter’s Law observes that, irrespective of how carefully you plan, every project will be prone to something unanticipated that will hinder its timely completion. The law’s recursiveness affirms that, even if you know a project may overrun and build that expectation into your planning, the project will overrun even your new estimated finish time.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Zeigarnik Effect: How Incomplete Tasks Trigger Stress [Mental Models]
  2. Let Go of Sunk Costs
  3. Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost
  4. Warren Buffett’s Advice on How to Focus on Priorities and Subdue Distractions
  5. Ask This One Question Every Morning to Find Your Focus

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Decision-Making, Discipline, Goals, Procrastination, Stress, Tardiness, Targets, Thought Process, Time Management

« Previous Page
Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Popular Now

Anxiety Assertiveness Attitudes Balance Biases Books Coaching Conflict Conversations Creativity Critical Thinking Decision-Making Discipline Emotions Entrepreneurs Etiquette Feedback Getting Along Getting Things Done Goals Great Manager Leadership Leadership Lessons Likeability Mental Models Mentoring Mindfulness Motivation Networking Parables Performance Management Persuasion Philosophy Problem Solving Procrastination Relationships Simple Living Social Skills Stress Thinking Tools Thought Process Time Management Winning on the Job Wisdom Worry

About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

Get Updates

Signup for emails

Subscribe via RSS

Contact Nagesh Belludi

RECOMMENDED BOOK:
The Art of War

The Art of War: Sun Tzu

The ancient Chinese master Sun Tzu reveals the essence of conflict and how to win by knowing yourself, knowing your enemy, and fighting only when you can win.

Explore

  • Announcements
  • Belief and Spirituality
  • Business Stories
  • Career Development
  • Effective Communication
  • Great Personalities
  • Health and Well-being
  • Ideas and Insights
  • Inspirational Quotations
  • Leadership
  • Leadership Reading
  • Leading Teams
  • Living the Good Life
  • Managing Business Functions
  • Managing People
  • MBA in a Nutshell
  • Mental Models
  • News Analysis
  • Personal Finance
  • Podcasts
  • Project Management
  • Proverbs & Maxims
  • Sharpening Your Skills
  • The Great Innovators
  • Uncategorized

Recently,

  • Racism and Identity: The Lie of Labeling
  • Why Your Partner May Be Lying
  • Inspirational Quotations #982
  • How to … Make Work Less Boring
  • How to … Communicate Better with Defensive People
  • How to … Deal with Meetings That Get Derailed
  • How to … Plan in a Time of Uncertainty

Unless otherwise stated in the individual document, the works above are © Nagesh Belludi under a Creative Commons BY-NC-ND license. You may quote, copy and share them freely, as long as you link back to RightAttitudes.com, don't make money with them, and don't modify the content. Enjoy!