Strategy

Are Layoffs Your Best Strategy Now?

November 28, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Are Layoffs Your Best Strategy? We’re in a demand slump; if you think downsizing will cut costs and shore up the bottom line, consider the unexpected consequences of layoffs.

Hefty severance pay, outplacement services, and other direct costs can add up quickly, and indirect costs can be substantial. E.g., losing experienced employees can precipitate lasting damage to your business. The direct costs can wipe out any short-term financial benefit if new hard-to-find employees are to be hired and trained within six to twelve months when the downtrend stops.

Then there’s the trap of believing that things will get better soon and downsizing the smallest number of people in anticipation of a quick turnaround. And when that expected miracle doesn’t materialize, you’ll wind up making successive cuts. That’s awful for the morale of the employees spared. The best employees won’t feel indebted to soldier on and may start casting around for new offers, terrified that they will be among the next to be cut.

Idea for Impact: Layoffs may not be the best strategy for grappling with hard times. Examine not just the cost of labor but also the value created by labor. Consider the trade-offs and try furloughs, pay cuts, job sharing, and scaled-down hours instead, depending on when you foresee business rebounding. You’ll spread the pain of the downturn more broadly, keep talented employees, earn loyalty, and better position your company for recovery.

The Loss Aversion Mental Model: A Case Study on Why People Think Spirit is a Horrible Airline

August 11, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Why People Think Spirit is a Horrible Airline---Loss Aversion Mental Model

When Spirit Airlines pivoted to competing on price in the late 2000s, it quickly gained a reputation not only for operational inefficiencies but also for its in-your-face, take-it-or-leave attitude towards customer service.

Where other airlines charged by-the-package fares for the flight experience, Spirit pared back service and introduced an a la carte pricing model. Charging for the “ancillaries”—i.e., everything optional, including water—allowed Spirit to keep ticket prices down and appeal to price-sensitive travelers willing to sacrifice the usual amenities for a lower ticket price.

In the ensuing years, the unconventionality of this business model did not go down well with customers. Much of the flying public’s frustration with Spirit had to do with Loss Aversion. That’s the notion that the emotional disappointment of a loss is more extreme than the joy of a comparable gain. If finding a cheaper fare on Spirit felt delightful, giving up some—or all—of the savings to purchase ancillaries and surrender the savings felt utterly miserable.

Passengers felt ripped off by these seemingly hidden fees, especially when the true cost of flying Spirit ended up greater than what the initial ticket price led them to believe.

Spirit 101---Spirit Airlines Perception Problem Spirit became quickly convinced that there was a perception problem—its customers didn’t fully understand how its fares work. Particularly, first-time customers blindly presumed that Spirit Airlines works the same way as other airlines. In reality, there were no hidden or excessive fees, and passengers could only pay for what they need or want. In 2014, the airline introduced its “Spirit 101” campaign to educate customers and alter their perceptions. With time and the increased adaptation of the “Basic Fare” model and curtailed customer service by every other airline, passengers’ expectations have since been right-sized. Spirit Airlines has come a long way, and its customer service has improved vastly.

Further studies on loss aversion have shown that a cascade of successive fees is worse than the cumulative: i.e., three ancillary fees that add up to, say, $70, feel a lot worse than a single $70 fee. Appropriately, Spirit offers a “Bundle it Combo” package.

Why Investors Keep Backing Unprofitable Business Models

July 29, 2022 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Why Investors Keep Backing Unprofitable Business Models Investors have heaped billions into Q-Commerce—especially the rapid grocery startups—hoping to hook consumers on the convenience of groceries that would turn up immediately, sometimes in minutes.

I’ve never really fathomed how the small-basket orders of low-margin groceries can endlessly compensate for the labor costs and overheads, even after discontinuing the generous referral bonuses, discount codes, and freebies enticing customers. The prospects may evolve if these startups subsist on ever more funding and develop massive businesses with efficiencies from scale. But then they’re right in Amazon’s wheelhouse.

Idea for Impact: Some business models are never created to be profitable, and investors should be wary of encouraging—and funding—loss-making propositions. The lure of backing an initial entrant, capturing market share, and then selling out to a more determined fool isn’t viable! Who needs goods delivered in such a rush for such charges, anyway?

How to See Opportunities Your Competition Doesn’t

November 19, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Harvard strategy professor Youngme Moon’s Different: Escaping the Competitive Herd (2010) describes how many companies pursue the same opportunities that every other company is chasing and thus miss the same opportunities that everyone else is missing.

In category after category, companies have gotten so locked into a particular cadence of competition that they appear to have lost sight of their mandate—which is to create meaningful grooves of separation from one another. Consequently, the harder they compete, the less differentiated they become … Products are no longer competing against each other; they are collapsing into each other in the minds of anyone who consumes them.

Moon argues that the companies and brands that see a different game win big. Such innovators don’t just try to outcompete their rivals at the margin. Instead, they redefine the competitive landscape by embracing unique ideas in a world crammed with me-too thinking.

European airline Ryanair unleashed a new wave of relentless cost- and price-leadership by charging customers extra for everything beyond a seat itself. If you want to check a bag, you pay extra. If you want an airport agent to check you in and print your boarding pass, you pay extra. If you want food and drink, you pay extra. Later on, Spirit Airlines took the price-obsession further by charging for carry-on bags too. After a rough rollout and customer defiance, paying for carry-on bags has become the new normal.

Idea for Impact: Being different is what makes all the difference. If you do things the same way everyone else in your field does things, why would you expect to do any better? What are you doing to raise your game—not just to stay in place, but to get ahead?

How Jeff Bezos is Like Sam Walton

November 1, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How Jeff Bezos is Like Sam Walton

Walmart founder Sam Walton’s brilliant autobiography, Made in America (my summary,) was published a few weeks before his death in 1992. The penultimate page reads,

Could a Wal-Mart-type story still occur in this day and age? My answer is of course it could happen again. Somewhere out there right now there’s someone—probably hundreds of thousands of someones—with good enough ideas to go all the way. It will be done again—over and over, providing that someone wants it badly enough to do what it takes to get there. It’s all a matter of attitude and the capacity to constantly study and question the management of the business.

Jeff Bezos started Amazon just two years later. After eight years on Wall Street, Bezos dreamt up Amazon during a drive from New York to Seattle in 1994. His wife (now ex-wife) MacKenzie drove, and Jeff “tapped out a business plan on his computer along the way.”

Amazon began as a loss-making book e-tailer at the dawn of the commercial Internet and as the dot-com poster child in the late ’90s. It has since evolved into one of the world’s most valuable companies. Amazon has come a long way from its genesis as the curse of bricks-and-mortar booksellers and has diversified broadly into just about every adjacent business it could get its hands on.

Bezos’s and Amazon’s dominant leadership values echo those of Sam Walton and Wal-Mart: frugality, a bias for action, long-term focus, motivating staff to think like owners, and customer obsession.

The Everything Store (2013,) Brad Stone’s excellent chronicle of the rise of Amazon, notes, “In his autobiography, Walmart’s founder expounds on the principles of discount retailing and discusses his core values of frugality and a bias for action—a willingness to try a lot of things and make many mistakes. Bezos included both in Amazon’s corporate values.” On an earnings call, Bezos famously declared, “there are two kinds of retailers: there are those folks who work to figure how to charge more, and there are companies that work to figure how to charge less, and we are going to be in the second, full-stop.”

All along, Bezos has made big bet-decisions that hurt it in the short term but created value in the long term. Amazon’s market capitalization has rocketed up from $4.55 billion in 2001 to $1.08 trillion before the Coronavirus/COVID-19 infected the stock markets. Amazon’s secret, in Bezos’s words, is,

We are genuinely customer-centric, we are genuinely long-term oriented and we genuinely like to invent. Most companies are not those things. They are focused on the competitor, rather than the customer. They want to work on things that will pay dividends in two or three years, and if they don’t work in two or three years they will move on to something else. And they prefer to be close-followers rather than inventors, because it’s safer. So if you want to capture the truth about Amazon, that is why we are different.

Amazon has not been consistently profitable over the years, and that is a deliberate upshot of how Bezos approaches business. Amazon cycles through periods of substantial investments that beget future revenue growth (with low profits) and periods of increasing profits as its investments ebb.

Bezos has maneuvered Wall Street into believing that he is just getting started—his “Day 1” philosophy has become something of a legend. “A big piece of the story we tell ourselves about who we are is that we are willing to invent … and very importantly, we are willing to be misunderstood for long periods of time,” Bezos asserted at Amazon’s 2011 annual shareholders meeting.

Not all of Bezos’s bets have succeeded. However, investors have come to acknowledge that his long-term initiatives will produce rich results several years down the road. Little wonder, then, that Amazon’s stock has defied short-termism by continually progressing upward even during quarters of little or no earnings.

Postscript: Bezos has been, until recently, the world’s wealthiest person since about 2018. Walton was the richest man from 1985 until his death in 1992. His inheritors, the Walton family, are collectively more affluent than Bezos!

Fail Cheaply

November 19, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

E-Fan X wind tunnel test model (Courtesy: Airbus)

One way to accelerate innovation is to undertake low-risk experiments.

Failures in the innovation process can be costly and time-consuming. It’s often wiser to try low-risk, low-cost, high-payoff experiments than ruminating endlessly.

Make your experiments cheaper. You don’t need to create a full-scale concept to test it. Find low-cost ways to test your assumptions. It may take time and iteration to find what works for you.

Engineers often use surrogate modeling techniques that use simple prototypes and mock-ups that are as representative as possible.
Counter to the phrase “it takes money to make money,” shrewd entrepreneurs know how to experiment multiple ways for minimal cost. Next, they scale up one or two experiments that have given them favorable results. The losses are small, and the potential gains much larger.

Idea for Impact: The worst way to fail is slow and big. Don’t eliminate failure. Only reduce the cost of failure.

When Growth Stalls: A Case Study of the iPhone

November 13, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

If you got an iPhone in the last few years, you don’t really need to rush to replace it with the new iPhone 12.

In a sense, Apple is relying on other businesses to make this new lineup a success. Despite Apple’s assertions that the new iPhone 12 supports fast 5G cellular networks, the prevailing 5G networks in America just aren’t fast enough yet.

Feature Stagnation

When Growth Stalls: A Case Study of the iPhone Arguably, there’s not much further for the iPhone to go. It’s been improved through numerous versions since 2007, and there simply isn’t much left to do. The entire experience is probably as good as it ever needs to be.

Beyond better power, speed, design, battery, cameras, and display, Apple faces the horizon of what’s expectable from a smartphone. After a decade of relentless growth and absolute dominance, innovation has exhausted. Progress will become increasingly inconsequential. Through it all, Apple has successfully sustained premium-position captivity and thrived even as new, low-cost competitors are emerging worldwide.

When Growth Stalls

Apple’s growth trajectory is likely to look different in the future. The bulk of Apple’s future growth prospects will come from existing customers and not new smartphone adopters. Apple has been focusing on newer software and services to expand the user experience and retain customers.

Apple’s core product is ex-growth. In that sense, Apple is now like Microsoft and Alphabet. Faced with product stagnation, both Microsoft and Alphabet responded by pushing into entirely new areas to spawn growth, but with patchy successes. When it’s dominant Windows and Office franchises were stalling, Microsoft pivoted and had big hits with the Xbox and enterprise software but failed with MSN, Bing, and mobile. Google diversified with Android and Apps but repeatedly missed on social.

Idea for Impact: No one, no matter how historically innovative and powerful, is guaranteed immortality

Successful companies—and people—must evolve their competence or risk becoming marginalized. The roots of sustained success lie in being aware, innovative, and adaptable. Don’t become too focused on taking care of today and forget preparing for tomorrow. Your business model could be fragile.

Best to Cut Your Losses Early: Lessons from the Failure of Quibi

October 22, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Streaming startup Quibi is shutting down barely six months after going live. The Wall Street Journal reports,

Founder Jeffrey Katzenberg and Chief Executive Meg Whitman decided to shut down the company in an effort to return as much capital to investors as possible instead of trying to prolong the life of the company and risk losing more money.

Best to Cut Your Losses Early Quibi (short for “quick bite”) was a late entrant into a crowded marketplace, and its short-form serial format aimed at short attention spans failed to get traction with teenagers and young adults amid the pandemic. The Week was puzzled by Quibi’s decision to not allow people to watch it on their television:

Among the early criticism directed at Quibi was the fact that it was mobile only, and users couldn’t watch the app’s original shows on their TVs. This was especially problematic at a time when many people were no longer commuting to work due to the COVID-19 pandemic and were, therefore, not in need of short content to watch on the go.

At heart, Quibi was just another fast food joint with the same menu as the rest. The Guardian wondered if anyone would give Quibi the time of day:

Quibi’s content felt less revolutionary than underbaked, slapdash concepts sledgehammering the viewer with abrupt hits of celebrity. The overarching theme was of celebrity names without thinking through what they would be doing that is interesting or novel. It offered little marginal benefit to the free celebrity fare on Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, or TikTok. Why pay for Quibi, when “if you want snackable Chrissy Teigen content, her social media provides that for you without this sort of hackneyed, first-thought courtroom set-up.”

Quibi’s only bona fide USP was its potential to piggybank on Katzenberg’s deep connections in the Hollywood establishment for content.

Idea for Impact: Investing money, energy, and time into something that’s not working is dreadful to admit, but it’s essential to come to terms with things that don’t go as planned, and your high hopes are dashed. Don’t hold on to an idea that doesn’t pay off soon enough. Best to cut your losses early—you’ll have the least sunk costs and the fewest emotional attachments.

Never Outsource a Key Capability

August 17, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In 2003, Domino’s Pizza started requiring its franchisees to adopt the company’s own point-of-sale system (POS) system, internally called PULSE, instead of letting franchisees choose third party POS systems that could integrate with Domino’s IT systems.

That strategy gave the company the ability to seamlessly control the entire ordering process and add functionalities such as online- and mobile-ordering, voice ordering, and contactless payments.

Domino's Pizza Technology for Consistent Customer Experience

At the same time, Domino’s clever marketing convinced consumers that it has the snappiest ordering process among all the pizza vendors.

How Domino’s Pizza reinvented itself

In 2009, Domino’s changed its pizza recipe and admitted that its previous version was awful in a series of brilliant commercials that featured the tagline, “We’re Sorry for Sucking.” Executives even read out vicious customer comments on camera resembling the Jimmy Kimmel ‘Mean Tweets’ show.

Domino’s (which is, incidentally, headquartered a mile from my home in Ann Arbor, Michigan) used its PULSE POS system as the centerpiece of a technology ecosystem that has helped it flourish as an “an e-commerce company that sells pizza.”

Domino's Pizza Turnaround Case Study Digital sales skyrocketed as the company tapped into greater demand for convenience, and Domino’s carved a bigger slice of home delivery and food pickup market. Morningstar’s R.J. Hottovy notes that Domino’s laser-sharp focus on improving online ordering has paid off leaps and bounds:

Technology plays an important role in Domino’s efforts to develop and enhance its brand image. Domino’s global technology platform includes a digital loyalty program with a rewards system, electronic customer profiling, geo-tracking of pizzas being delivered to customer homes, and customer geo-tracking to have carryout pizzas ready just as they enter the store. Other innovations include high-speed ovens (which reduced cooking time to four minutes) and Pulse (a unified point-of-sale system,) which have re-engineered fulfillment processes to be best-in-class. Pulse integrates all orders (regardless of origin) into a seamless interface that provides detailed monitoring of every aspect of the ordering, cooking, fulfillment, and delivery processes, which reduces bottlenecks and minimizes downtimes, enabling Domino’s to offer faster delivery times than competitors.

By owning the entire customer experience, Domino’s has been able to provide a consistent experience for customers irrespective of how they order, use data to create value for customers, and iterate quickly. No wonder, then, that Domino’s share price is up 28-fold since its 2004 IPO!

Idea for Impact: Don’t outsource what you’re supposed to do best.

Smart companies understand that outsourcing can result in loss of control over key capabilities. That can impede the company’s ability to improve its efficiency in serving customers or introduce changes in response to shifts in the marketplace.

The Key to Reinvention is Getting Back to the Basics

August 6, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Leaders of turnarounds often succeed by putting the fundamentals on the table and insisting upon a greater emphasis on the basics.

The turnaround that CEO Brian Niccol has cooked up at Chipotle Mexican Grill [CMG] makes a great case study of the back-to-the-basics approach to management.

CEO Brian Niccol made Chipotle Fresh Again

The Basics Often Get Lost in a Speedy World

To set the context, here’s a concise history of Chipotle: founded in 1993 by chef Steve Ells, Chipotle found great success in marketing its near-local sourcing of fresher ingredients, using naturally-raised proteins, and on-premises cooking.

Chipotle grew swiftly and established itself as the flag-bearer of the fast-casual trend that spurned fast-food orthodoxy. McDonald’s was a major investor from 1998 until 2006 when Chipotle went public.

In 2015, Chipotle’s star began to fade away when hundreds of its customers got sick from infections with salmonella, E. coli, and norovirus. Worried that this short-term rough patch can turn into a long-term downward slide, the company’s board recruited Niccol from Yum Brands’s Taco Bell division in 2018.

CEO Brian Niccol made Chipotle Fresh Again by Focusing on the Basics

In two short years as CEO, Niccol has returned Chipotle to industry-leading performance and positioned the company for above-industry growth. His Barron’s ‘Streetwise’ interview with the inimitable Jack Hough provides an insight into how strategic business leaders think and make decisions:

When I arrived at Chipotle, I discovered that it was a company full of ideas; it lacked discipline and the focus to figure out the few things we wanted to do really well. Chipotle had lost focus on executing the basics of running a great restaurant.

We modernized food safety practices and emphasized avoiding contamination and educating food suppliers and farmers.

We went back to following the original culinary on how to make great food: getting the right char on the chicken, the right amount of lemon, and the right amount of chopped jalapenos.

Idea for Impact: Getting the basics right is often the first essential step to building a greater organization.

So many companies fail on their fundamentals—and don’t even realize it—especially when their businesses have grown, market conditions have changed, and the companies have taken on all sorts of complexities that have stumbled.

If you want your organization to pull through a slump or hit a new growth trajectory, consider cracking down on the basics.

Focus on your core values and your underlying business model, which are like beacons that can help steer you on the right track. Inquire why your organization exists. How should you operate? What is your market position? What matters to the organization’s mission and vision? Focus on doing the right thing—and doing it consistently over time.

A renewed emphasis on the strategic basics will put your company in the best possible position to navigate new strategic choices, as Niccol’s Chipotle has done.

Strategy

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Feature Stagnation

When Growth Stalls

Idea for Impact: No one, no matter how historically innovative and powerful, is guaranteed immortality

Wondering what to read next?

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How Domino’s Pizza reinvented itself

Idea for Impact: Don’t outsource what you’re supposed to do best.

Wondering what to read next?

The Basics Often Get Lost in a Speedy World

CEO Brian Niccol made Chipotle Fresh Again by Focusing on the Basics

Idea for Impact: Getting the basics right is often the first essential step to building a greater organization.

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