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Let’s Hope She Gets Thrown in the Pokey

November 16, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

The Elizabeth Holmes-Theranos criminal trial hasn’t been without its share of theatrics.

Yes, Holmes’s massive fraud is obvious. She entranced (read WSJ reporter John Carreyrou’s excellent chronicle, Bad Blood (2018; my summary)) journalists, investors, politicians, and business partners into believing her fantasy science. She may even be responsible for negligent homicide if people died because of her company’s fake test results.

Then again, these sorts of cases generally hang on subtle distinctions between hyperbole and outright dishonesty and whether such deceit was deliberate.

Holmes’s lawyers will argue that she was merely an ambitious entrepreneur who failed to realize her vision but wasn’t a fraudster. Her lawyers will make a case that she is not to be blamed because people took her puffery and exaggeration as factually accurate. At what point do her wishfulness and enthusiasm go from optimism to intentional fraud? That’ll be the critical question.

'Bad Blood' by John Carreyrou (ISBN 152473165X) At any rate, the Theranos verdict is unlikely to deter others from the swagger, self-assurance, hustle, and the “fake it till you make it” ethos that is so endemic to start-up culture. Investors will never cease looking at people and ideas rather than the viability of their work.

Idea for Impact: Don’t be so swayed by story-telling that has a way of making people less objectively observant. Assemble the facts, and ask yourself what truth the facts bear out. Never let yourself be sidetracked by what you wish to believe.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. A Real Lesson from the Downfall of Theranos: Silo Mentality
  2. The Dramatic Fall of Theranos & Elizabeth Holmes // Book Summary of John Carreyrou’s ‘Bad Blood’
  3. When Work Becomes a Metric, Metrics Risk Becoming the Work: A Case Study of the Stakhanovite Movement
  4. The Wisdom of the Well-Timed Imperfection: The ‘Pratfall Effect’ and Authenticity
  5. Ethics Lessons From Akira Kurosawa’s ‘High and Low’

Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Entrepreneurs, Ethics, Likeability, Psychology, Questioning, Risk

Decision-Making Isn’t Black and White

October 30, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Most decisions aren’t “good” or “bad;” most fall somewhere in the middle.

Coming to terms with this reality is a big part of allowing yourself to trust your decisions, especially when dealing with uncertainty. Besides, more thinking can’t always be better thinking.

Let go of decisions you made in the past that you weren’t entirely satisfied with. Don’t let them haunt you in the present. Don’t let them second-guess yourself after a decision has been made.

Idea for Impact: When decisions don’t work out as expected, give yourself a break. Not all bad outcomes result from bad decisions. There are positive and negative implications to everything. And that’s OK.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. How to Embrace Uncertainty and Leave Room for Doubt
  2. A Bit of Insecurity Can Help You Be Your Best Self
  3. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  4. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  5. A Quick Way to Build Your Confidence Right Now

Filed Under: Mental Models Tagged With: Confidence, Decision-Making, Introspection, Mindfulness, Questioning, Risk, Wisdom

Many Hard Leadership Lessons in the Boeing 737 MAX Debacle

August 24, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The U.S. House committee’s report on Boeing’s 737 MAX disaster makes interesting reading on contemporary leadership, particularly the pressures of rapid product development.

The rush to market and a culture of contributory negligence and concealment conspired to ensure that a not-yet-airworthy plane carried passengers into service, resulting in two fatal accidents and a long grounding.

Boeing’s design and development of the 737 MAX was marred by technical design failures, a lack of transparency with both regulators and customers, and efforts to downplay or disregard concerns about the operation of the aircraft.

Of particular importance are the “management failures,” “inherent conflicts of interest,” and “grossly insufficient oversight” at both Boeing and its regulator, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA.) Boeing failed to offset the design limitations and cost- and schedule-pressures in favor of attention to customer safety. Leadership was fixated on fending off the runaway success of the Airbus A320neo program.

The company relied on too many technical assumptions—and they couldn’t make themselves the space and time to be reasonable about any of this. Boeing’s “culture of concealment” and an “unwillingness to share technical details” are the report’s most damning indictment. Employees spoke but went unheard; indeed, their voices were suppressed.

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. Availability Heuristic: Our Preference for the Familiar
  3. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235
  4. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  5. How to Guard Against Anything You May Inadvertently Overlook

Filed Under: Leadership Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Change Management, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools

If You’re Looking for Bad Luck, You’ll Soon Find It

August 16, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Consider a woman who complained that her neighborhood dry cleaner ruined her expensive slacks. “Last month, he spoiled my wool blazer. Last Christmas, he … . It always happens,” she grumbled.

This woman knew she was taking chances with this dry cleaner. She allowed it to happen.

Luck is sometimes the result of taking appropriate action. And, bad luck is sometimes the result of tempting fate.

Say, you’ve been planning for weeks for your next big trip. You got an incredible deal on the day’s very last flight to your destination. On the day of departure, your late-night flight gets canceled. Sure, you’re a victim of back luck—but you invited it. Think about it. Odds are, you’re more likely to have a flight delay or cancellation later in the day because airlines schedule their rosters tightly to maximize aircraft and flight crew utilization. Delays and disruptions from earlier in the day propagate onward to the late flights.

Often, luck has nothing to do with bad luck. “The fault,” as Shakespeare wrote, “is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”

Sometimes you can be your own worst enemy. Don’t self-sabotage yourself by tempting fate.

Idea for Impact: Bad choices beget bad luck

You have to be lucky to get lucky. You have no control over many outcomes in life, but you can always increase the odds of getting lucky by taking appropriate action. More importantly, you can minimize the chance of bad luck by decreasing its odds.

Remember, a good mathematics student never buys a lottery ticket, and if he does, he never grumbles about not winning the jackpot!

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  2. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  3. More Data Isn’t Always Better
  4. Protect the Downside with Pre-mortems
  5. How To … Be More Confident in Your Choices

Filed Under: Mental Models Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Luck, Risk, Wisdom

Best/Worst Analysis: A Mental Model for Risk Aversion

August 2, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Dr. Ben Carson, who was part of the Trump Cabinet, established his reputation as a groundbreaking neurosurgeon in the Johns Hopkins medical system. In Take the Risk: Learning to Identify, Choose, and Live with Acceptable Risk (2009,) Carson reflects on fear, hesitation, and facing the risks he took for himself and his patients:

You don’t go into a field that requires cracking people’s heads open or operating on something as delicate as the spinal cord unless you are comfortable with taking risks.

Every day I make critical, split-second decisions that affect the longevity and the quality of other people’s lives. Taking such risks gives me pause. It forces me to think about my own life and the risks I face. Those experiences enable me to move forward and avoid becoming paralyzed by fear. As a result, I probably do a lot of things that more cautious people would never attempt.

Next time you’re fretting over how to proceed in a dicey situation, Carson suggests using a mental model he calls the ‘Best/Worst Risk Analysis.’

Putting on the optimist/pessimist hats and imagining the best-case/worst-case scenarios, ask yourself these questions:

  • What’s the best thing that can happen if I do it?
  • What’s the worst thing that can happen if I do it?
  • What’s the best thing that can happen if I don’t do it?
  • What’s the worst that can happen if I don’t do it?

It’s a variation of Ben Franklin’s humble “pro et contra” (“for and against”) system for decision-making.

Research has shown that this Best/Worst Risk Analysis mental model promotes shared decision-making. In the surgical environment, it helps surgeons organize challenging treatment dialogs to support patients and their families. This mental model helps surgeons communicate by turning the refocus of decision-making conversations from a surgical problem’s uncertainties to discussing treatment alternatives and potential outcomes.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Airline Disasters Teach About Cognitive Impairment and Decision-Making Under Stress
  2. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  3. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  4. Summary of Richard Carlson’s ‘Don’t Sweat The Small Stuff’
  5. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom, Worry

More Data Isn’t Always Better

July 23, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The hype around so-called ‘big data’ seems to have convinced many that unless the data and analytics are ‘big,’ they won’t have a big impact.

In reality, though, your organization can generate tons of value from the prudent use of smallish data.

Furthermore, you just don’t need big data tools such as Hadoop to solve every data analytics challenge you’ll face. In many cases, humble Microsoft Excel is all you’ll want.

More Data Isn't Always Better - Big Data. Often the missing gap isn’t in big data technologies but in data science skills. The rapid rise in your ability to collect data needs to be seconded by your ability to support, manage, filter, and interpret the data.

Idea for Impact: With data, more isn’t necessarily better. Small data can still have a significant impact. Rather than collecting data for the sake of it, identify why you need data and then go get the most meaningful data that can answer the questions you have.

Focus not on whether the data is small or big but on the problem you’re trying to solve.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Protect the Downside with Pre-mortems
  2. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  3. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  4. Making Tough Decisions with Scant Data
  5. Defect Seeding: Strengthen Systems, Boost Confidence

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom

How to Turn Your Fears into Fuel

May 3, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment


Self-doubt is an Important Motivator

It doesn’t matter how successful creative people actually achieve. Feeling inadequate is a common malady in showbiz.

Barbra Streisand avoided live performance for 27 years.

Adele has said, “I’m scared of audiences. My nerves don’t really settle until I’m off stage.” Her concerts mean so much that she fears letting her audience down.

Kate Winslet has admitted, “Sometimes I wake up in the morning before going off to a shoot, and I think, I can’t do this; I’m a fraud. They’re going to fire me—all these things. I’m fat; I’m ugly.”

Otis Skinner, one of the great 19th-century matinee idols, once told his daughter Cornelia “Any actor who claims he is immune to stage fright is either lying or else he’s no actor.”

These superstars are not alone. Michael Gambon, Meryl Streep, Kenneth Branagh, Richard Burton, Fredric March, Andrea Bocelli, Ewan McGregor, Steven Osborne, Derek Jacobi, Stephen Fry, Eileen Atkins, Maureen Stapleton, Ian Holm, Renee Fleming, Carly Simon, Marilyn Monroe, Ellen Terry, Rod Stewart, and Peter Eyre—even actor-trainers such as Lee Strasberg and Konstantin Stanislavsky—have suffered from varying degrees of stage fear.

Fear is a universal problem.

Give voice to your fear self-doubt & take action

Many icons suffer from stage fear, often from the weight of expectation that their reputations place upon them. They throw up, feel paralyzed, or break into cold sweats. Adele once got so unnerved that she escaped from the fire exit at an Amsterdam concert venue.

Consider actor Laurence Olivier, who suffered stage fright even in his sixties when he was the world’s most revered stage performer. Even at the pinnacle of his fame, the National Theatre’s stage manager had to prod Olivier onstage every night.

Laurence Olivier suffered five years of agonizing dread following a press night in 1964, when he found his voice diminishing and the audience “beginning to go giddily round.” He developed strategies. When delivering his Othello soliloquies, he asked his Iago to stay in sight, fearing, “I might not be able to stay there in front of the audience by myself.” He asked actors not to look him in the eye: “For some reason, this made me feel that there was not quite so much loaded against me.” The venerable Sybil Thorndike gave him trenchant counsel: “Take drugs, darling, we do.”

As a sidebar, when Olivier made his stage debut playing Brutus at a choir school in London, Thorndike was in the audience. After seeing Olivier on stage for just five minutes, she turned to her husband. She declared, “But this is an actor—absolutely an actor. Born to it.”

Focus on what needs to be done & break the shell of fear and self-doubt

Some of our most admired icons experienced self-doubt—even Abraham Lincoln and Mahatma Gandhi. What distinguishes most successful people is that they engage their fear. They accept that diffidence and adrenalin rush are something that they must deal with.

Interestingly enough, it’s often the mature performer, not the novice, who’s most likely to succumb to a seizure of nerves. However, superstars know in their heart of hearts that fear of inadequacy isn’t shameful. It’s normal. It’s part of the profession. It’s human.

Successful people know how to turn anxiety into energy. They take steps to minimize adverse effects. Through action, they transform their fear into vitality. Fear becomes fuel. They refuse to let their fears get in the way of their goals and success. They overcome fear through the love of the work and channel the sense of the audience’s or constituency’s expectation and goodwill into their best performance.

Idea for Impact: Don’t Fear it, Embrace it.

It’s natural to feel apprehensive when embarking on any venture. Don’t drown in a sea of self-doubt.

Overconfidence can take the edge off the feeling that you need to work hard. It’s ironic that high self-confidence, so often advised as the cure for low achievement, can cause it.

Fear invites you to work harder on your methods, strategies, and skills. It’s undoubtedly more preferable than the alternative. High self-esteem and overconfidence can lead to complacency and no growth. As Nobel laureate Kazuo Ishiguro reminds in The Remains of the Day (1989,) “If you are under the impression you have already perfected yourself, you will never rise to the heights you are no doubt capable of.”

Focus on turning your fears into positive motivators to improve your work. Action transforms anxiety into energy. The “angels” want you to succeed.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Are You So Afraid Of? // Summary of Susan Jeffers’s ‘Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway’
  2. How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward
  3. Fear Isn’t the Enemy—Paralysis Is
  4. Resilience Through Rejection
  5. Nothing Like a Word of Encouragement to Provide a Lift

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Attitudes, Confidence, Fear, Mindfulness, Motivation, Parables, Personal Growth, Procrastination, Risk, Wisdom

How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward

April 23, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The smartest people I know of are those who realize that fear can be immobilizing. They understand that being so afraid of failing at something can push them to decide not to try it at all.

Consider American billionaire Philip Anschutz’s meditations upon his induction to the Horatio Alger Association of Distinguished Americans, 2000:

I’ve had a lot of failures and made mistakes, and it’s important to know that none of these are irreversible in your life. You can fix them. Failure is part of the game. You’ve got to have them, and you should do things every day that scare you a little. You’ve got to take risks, and you’ve to make hard decisions—even when you yourself are in doubt. It’s not failure, but the fear of failure that stops most people.

Idea for Impact: Don’t let fear stop you from moving forward.

Fear of failure has a way of undermining your own efforts to avoid the possibility of a larger failure. But when you allow fear to hinder your forward progress in life, you’re destined to miss some great opportunities along the way.

One of the most powerful ways of reducing the fear of failing is to analyze all potential outcomes, have a contingency plan, and start small. Be open to constantly revising your understanding, changing your mind, and cutting your losses. Be open to reconsidering a problem you think you’ve already solved.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Are You So Afraid Of? // Summary of Susan Jeffers’s ‘Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway’
  2. How to Turn Your Fears into Fuel
  3. Resilience Through Rejection
  4. Fear Isn’t the Enemy—Paralysis Is
  5. What You Most Fear Doing is What You Most Need to Do

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Attitudes, Discipline, Fear, Learning, Personal Growth, Procrastination, Risk

This Hack Will Help You Think Opportunity Costs

March 29, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Making decisions is all about opportunity costs. For instance, every time you spend money to get something, you should ask yourself what else, perhaps of better value, you could get with that money—now or later.

The problem is, when forced to choose between something immediate and concrete and something else that’s comparatively abstract and distant, the opportunity cost could lack clarity.

Duke University behavioral economist Dan Ariely proposes the notion of “anti-goals” to help examine the trade-offs you’re forced to make. Ariely encourages pairing goals such that if you satisfy one, you’ll impede the other. For example, when choosing to spend $100 on an evening out today, you can consider a tangible anti-goal—say, saving for the family’s summer vacation—that’ll be held back.

Idea for Impact: Thinking about what you want to avoid—the anti-goal—is a potent tool. It allows you to focus on things that really matter.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost
  2. Master the Middle: Where Success Sets Sail
  3. Steering the Course: Leadership’s Flight with the Instrument Scan Mental Model
  4. The Simple Life, The Good Life // Book Summary of Greg McKeown’s ‘Essentialism’
  5. What Happens When You Talk About Too Many Goals

Filed Under: MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Balance, Decision-Making, Discipline, Goals, Negotiation, Problem Solving, Risk, Simple Living, Targets

Five Ways … You Could Avoid Being Wrong

March 20, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

  • Beware exaggeration of a kernel of truth. For instance: indeed, many of us don’t realize our full intellectual potential; but that doesn’t give credence to the notion that most people use only 10% of their brainpower. Besides, beware of overstatements of small differences. Sure, men and women tend to differ somewhat in their communication styles, but declaring that “men are from Mars” and “women are from Venus” is taking a kernel of reality to an extreme, not to mention coercing psychology into stereotypes.
  • Don’t infer causation from correlation. Don’t be tempted to conclude that if two things co-occur statistically, they must be causally related to each other. (Rabbi Harold Kushner once asserted that circumcision seems to increase men’s chances of winning a Nobel Prize.) Seek contending explanation.
  • Beware biased sampling and extrapolation. Inferences from a biased sample are not as trustworthy as conclusions from a truly random sample—e.g., don’t ask people coming out of Sunday Mass if they have a personal relationship with Jesus Christ and infer that Americans are turning to God. Don’t ascribe to the whole any attribute of the part.
  • Don’t let stress impair your problem-solving capabilities. As many airline disasters confirm (example, example, example,) speed can narrow your cognitive map—small errors can quickly become linked up and amplified into disastrous outcomes. When you feel rushed, you’re likely to miss details. You’re not present enough in the moment to notice what’s important and make the most beneficial choices.
  • Beware argumentum ad nauseam. Don’t confuse a statement’s familiarity (such as urban legends) with its accuracy. The fact that you’ve heard a claim repeated over and over again (think of President Trump’s allegations of widespread voter fraud,) sometimes with rearranged phrasing and substitute terms, doesn’t make it correct.

Bonus: Be suspicious of any claim that doesn’t come with counterarguments or disconfirming evidence.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Be Smart by Not Being Stupid
  2. How to … Escape the Overthinking Trap
  3. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  4. If You’re Looking for Bad Luck, You’ll Soon Find It
  5. Lessons from David Dao Incident: Watch Out for the Availability Bias!

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Risk

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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