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More Data Isn’t Always Better

July 23, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The hype around so-called ‘big data’ seems to have convinced many that unless the data and analytics are ‘big,’ they won’t have a big impact.

In reality, though, your organization can generate tons of value from the prudent use of smallish data.

Furthermore, you just don’t need big data tools such as Hadoop to solve every data analytics challenge you’ll face. In many cases, humble Microsoft Excel is all you’ll want.

More Data Isn't Always Better - Big Data. Often the missing gap isn’t in big data technologies but in data science skills. The rapid rise in your ability to collect data needs to be seconded by your ability to support, manage, filter, and interpret the data.

Idea for Impact: With data, more isn’t necessarily better. Small data can still have a significant impact. Rather than collecting data for the sake of it, identify why you need data and then go get the most meaningful data that can answer the questions you have.

Focus not on whether the data is small or big but on the problem you’re trying to solve.

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  5. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom

How to Turn Your Fears into Fuel

May 3, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How to Turn Your Fears into Fuel

Self-doubt is an Important Motivator

It doesn’t matter how successful creative people actually achieve. Feeling inadequate is a common malady in showbiz.

Barbra Streisand avoided live performance for 27 years.

Adele has said, “I’m scared of audiences. My nerves don’t really settle until I’m off stage.” Her concerts mean so much that she fears letting her audience down.

Kate Winslet has admitted, “Sometimes I wake up in the morning before going off to a shoot, and I think, I can’t do this; I’m a fraud. They’re going to fire me—all these things. I’m fat; I’m ugly.”

Otis Skinner, one of the great 19th-century matinee idols, once told his daughter Cornelia “Any actor who claims he is immune to stage fright is either lying or else he’s no actor.”

These superstars are not alone. Michael Gambon, Meryl Streep, Kenneth Branagh, Richard Burton, Fredric March, Andrea Bocelli, Ewan McGregor, Steven Osborne, Derek Jacobi, Stephen Fry, Eileen Atkins, Maureen Stapleton, Ian Holm, Renee Fleming, Carly Simon, Marilyn Monroe, Ellen Terry, Rod Stewart, and Peter Eyre—even actor-trainers such as Lee Strasberg and Konstantin Stanislavsky—have suffered from varying degrees of stage fear.

Fear is a universal problem.

Give voice to your fear self-doubt & take action

Many icons suffer from stage fear, often from the weight of expectation that their reputations place upon them. They throw up, feel paralyzed, or break into cold sweats. Adele once got so unnerved that she escaped from the fire exit at an Amsterdam concert venue.

Laurence Olivier Suffered Stage Fright Even in His Sixties Consider actor Laurence Olivier, who suffered stage fright even in his sixties when he was the world’s most revered stage performer. Even at the pinnacle of his fame, the National Theatre’s stage manager had to prod Olivier onstage every night.

Laurence Olivier suffered five years of agonizing dread following a press night in 1964, when he found his voice diminishing and the audience “beginning to go giddily round.” He developed strategies. When delivering his Othello soliloquies, he asked his Iago to stay in sight, fearing, “I might not be able to stay there in front of the audience by myself.” He asked actors not to look him in the eye: “For some reason, this made me feel that there was not quite so much loaded against me.” The venerable Sybil Thorndike gave him trenchant counsel: “Take drugs, darling, we do.”

As a sidebar, when Olivier made his stage debut playing Brutus at a choir school in London, Thorndike was in the audience. After seeing Olivier on stage for just five minutes, she turned to her husband. She declared, “But this is an actor—absolutely an actor. Born to it.”

Focus on what needs to be done & break the shell of fear and self-doubt

Some of our most admired icons experienced self-doubt—even Abraham Lincoln and Mahatma Gandhi. What distinguishes most successful people is that they engage their fear. They accept that diffidence and adrenalin rush are something that they must deal with.

Interestingly enough, it’s often the mature performer, not the novice, who’s most likely to succumb to a seizure of nerves. However, superstars know in their heart of hearts that fear of inadequacy isn’t shameful. It’s normal. It’s part of the profession. It’s human.

Successful people know how to turn anxiety into energy. They take steps to minimize adverse effects. Through action, they transform their fear into vitality. Fear becomes fuel. They refuse to let their fears get in the way of their goals and success. They overcome fear through the love of the work and channel the sense of the audience’s or constituency’s expectation and goodwill into their best performance.

Idea for Impact: Don’t Fear it, Embrace it.

It’s natural to feel apprehensive when embarking on any venture. Don’t drown in a sea of self-doubt.

Overconfidence can take the edge off the feeling that you need to work hard. It’s ironic that high self-confidence, so often advised as the cure for low achievement, can cause it.

Fear invites you to work harder on your methods, strategies, and skills. It’s undoubtedly more preferable than the alternative. High self-esteem and overconfidence can lead to complacency and no growth. As Nobel laureate Kazuo Ishiguro reminds in The Remains of the Day (1989,) “If you are under the impression you have already perfected yourself, you will never rise to the heights you are no doubt capable of.”

Focus on turning your fears into positive motivators to improve your work. Action transforms anxiety into energy. The “angels” want you to succeed.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Are You So Afraid Of? // Summary of Susan Jeffers’s ‘Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway’
  2. How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward
  3. Nothing Like a Word of Encouragement to Provide a Lift
  4. A Bit of Insecurity Can Help You Be Your Best Self
  5. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Attitudes, Confidence, Fear, Mindfulness, Motivation, Parables, Personal Growth, Procrastination, Risk, Wisdom

How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward

April 23, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The smartest people I know of are those who realize that fear can be immobilizing. They understand that being so afraid of failing at something can push them to decide not to try it at all.

Philip Anschutz - Face Your Fear and Move Forward Consider American billionaire Philip Anschutz’s meditations upon his induction to the Horatio Alger Association of Distinguished Americans, 2000:

I’ve had a lot of failures and made mistakes, and it’s important to know that none of these are irreversible in your life. You can fix them. Failure is part of the game. You’ve got to have them, and you should do things every day that scare you a little. You’ve got to take risks, and you’ve to make hard decisions—even when you yourself are in doubt. It’s not failure, but the fear of failure that stops most people.

Idea for Impact: Don’t let fear stop you from moving forward.

Fear of failure has a way of undermining your own efforts to avoid the possibility of a larger failure. But when you allow fear to hinder your forward progress in life, you’re destined to miss some great opportunities along the way.

One of the most powerful ways of reducing the fear of failing is to analyze all potential outcomes, have a contingency plan, and start small. Be open to constantly revising your understanding, changing your mind, and cutting your losses. Be open to reconsidering a problem you think you’ve already solved.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. What Are You So Afraid Of? // Summary of Susan Jeffers’s ‘Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway’
  2. How to Turn Your Fears into Fuel
  3. You’ll Never Get a ‘Yes’ If You Never Ask
  4. Fear of Failure is an Obstacle to Growth
  5. Lessons from Sam Walton: Learning from Failure

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Attitudes, Discipline, Fear, Learning, Personal Growth, Procrastination, Risk

This Hack Will Help You Think Opportunity Costs: Goals and Anti-Goals

March 29, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Goals and Anti-Goals---Opportunity Cost Making decisions is all about opportunity costs. For instance, every time you spend money to get something, you should ask yourself what else, perhaps of better value, you could get with that money—now or later.

The problem is, when forced to choose between something immediate and concrete and something else that’s comparatively abstract and distant, the opportunity cost could lack clarity.

Duke University behavioral economist Dan Ariely proposes the notion of “anti-goals” to help examine the trade-offs you’re forced to make. Ariely encourages pairing goals such that if you satisfy one, you’ll impede the other. For example, when choosing to spend $100 on an evening out today, you can consider a tangible anti-goal—say, saving for the family’s summer vacation—that’ll be held back.

Idea for Impact: Thinking about what you want to avoid—the anti-goal—is a potent tool. It allows you to focus on things that really matter.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost
  2. The Simple Life, The Good Life // Book Summary of Greg Mckeown’s ‘Essentialism’
  3. What Happens When You Talk About Too Many Goals
  4. More from Less // Book Summary of Richard Koch’s ’80/20 Principle’
  5. Everything Takes Longer Than Anticipated: Hofstadter’s Law [Mental Models]

Filed Under: MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Balance, Decision-Making, Discipline, Goals, Negotiation, Problem Solving, Risk, Simple Living, Targets

Five Ways … You Could Avoid Being Wrong

March 20, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

  • Five Ways Beware exaggeration of a kernel of truth. For instance: indeed, many of us don’t realize our full intellectual potential; but that doesn’t give credence to the notion that most people use only 10% of their brainpower. Besides, beware of overstatements of small differences. Sure, men and women tend to differ somewhat in their communication styles, but declaring that “men are from Mars” and “women are from Venus” is taking a kernel of reality to an extreme, not to mention coercing psychology into stereotypes.
  • Don’t infer causation from correlation. Don’t be tempted to conclude that if two things co-occur statistically, they must be causally related to each other. (Rabbi Harold Kushner once asserted that circumcision seems to increase men’s chances of winning a Nobel Prize.) Seek contending explanation.
  • Beware biased sampling and extrapolation. Inferences from a biased sample are not as trustworthy as conclusions from a truly random sample—e.g., don’t ask people coming out of Sunday Mass if they have a personal relationship with Jesus Christ and infer that Americans are turning to God. Don’t ascribe to the whole any attribute of the part.
  • Don’t let stress impair your problem-solving capabilities. As many airline disasters confirm (example, example, example,) speed can narrow your cognitive map—small errors can quickly become linked up and amplified into disastrous outcomes. When you feel rushed, you’re likely to miss details. You’re not present enough in the moment to notice what’s important and make the most beneficial choices.
  • Beware argumentum ad nauseam. Don’t confuse a statement’s familiarity (such as urban legends) with its accuracy. The fact that you’ve heard a claim repeated over and over again (think of President Trump’s allegations of widespread voter fraud,) sometimes with rearranged phrasing and substitute terms, doesn’t make it correct.

Bonus: Be suspicious of any claim that doesn’t come with counterarguments or disconfirming evidence.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  2. If You’re Looking for Bad Luck, You’ll Soon Find It
  3. How A Single Point of Failure Became The Boeing 737 MAX’s Achilles Heel
  4. More Data Isn’t Always Better
  5. Why Your Judgment Sucks // Summary of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011)

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Risk

Tylenol Made a Hero of Johnson & Johnson: A Timeless Crisis Management Case Study

March 11, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Crisis needn’t strike a company solely because of its own neglect or disaster. Sometimes, situations emerge where the company can’t be blamed—but the company realizes quickly that it’ll get much blame if it fumbles the ball in its crisis-response.

Ever since cyanide-laced Extra-Strength Tylenol killed seven people in Chicago in 1982, corporate boards and business school students have studied the response of Johnson & Johnson (J&J,) Tylenol’s manufacturer, to learn how to handle crises. The culprits are still unknown almost 40 years later.

Successful Crisis Management: Full Responsibility, Proactive Stance

Good Crisis Management: The 1982 Response of Johnson & Johnson to the Tylenol Scandal In 1982, Tylenol commanded 35 percent of the over-the-counter analgesic market in America. This over-the-counter painkiller was the drugmaker’s best-selling product, and it represented nearly 17 percent of J&J’s profits. When seven people died from consuming the tainted drug, Time magazine wrote of the tragedy’s victims,

Twelve-year-old Mary Kellerman of Elk Grove Village took Extra-Strength Tylenol to ward off a cold that had been dogging her. Mary Reiner, 27… had recently given birth to her fourth child. Paula Prince, 35, a United Airlines stewardess, was found dead in her Chicago apartment, an open bottle of Extra-Strength Tylenol nearby in the bathroom. Says Dr. Kim [the chief of critical care at Northwest Community Hospital]: “The victims never had a chance. Death was certain within minutes.”

A panic ensued about how widespread the contamination may be. Moreover, Americans started to question the safety of over-the-counter medications.

Advertising guru Jerry Della Femina declared Tylenol dead:

I don’t think they can ever sell another product under that name. There may be an advertising person who thinks he can solve this, and if they find him, I want to hire him because then I want him to turn our water cooler into a wine cooler.

The ‘Grand-Daddy’ of Good Crisis Response

  • J&J acted quickly, with complete candidness about what had happened, and immediately sought to remove any source of danger based on the worst-case scenario. Within hours of learning of the deaths, J&J installed toll-free numbers for consumers to get information, sent alerts to healthcare providers nationwide, and stopped advertising the product. J&J recalled 31 million bottles of Tylenol capsules from store shelves and offered replacement products free of charge in the safer tablet form. J&J did not wait for evidence to see whether the contamination might be more widespread.
  • J&J’s leadership was in the lead and seemed in full control throughout the crisis. James Burke, J&J’s chairman, was widely admired for his leadership to pull Tylenol capsules off the market and his forthrightness in dealing with the media. (The Tylenol crisis led the news every night on every station for six weeks.)
  • J&J placed consumers first. J&J spent more than $100 million for the recall and relaunch of Tylenol. The stock had been trading near a 52-week high just before the tragedy, dropped for a time, but recovered to its highs only two months later.
  • J&J accepted responsibility. Burke could have described the disaster in many different ways: as an assault on the company, as a problem somewhere in the process of getting Tylenol from J&J factories to retail stores, or as the acts of a crazed criminal.
  • J&J sought to ensure that measures were taken to prevent as far as possible a recurrence of the problem. J&J introduced tamper-proof packaging (supported by an expanded media campaign) that would make it much more difficult for a similar incident to occur in the future.
  • J&J presented itself prepared to handle the short-term damage in the name of consumer safety. That, more than anything else, established a basis for trust with their customers. Within a year of the disaster, J&J’s share of the analgesic market, which had fallen to 7 percent from 37 percent following the poisoning, had climbed back to 30 percent.

Business Principles Should Hold True in Good Times and Bad

Johnson & Johnson CEO James Burke - Tylenol Scandal and Crisis Management When the second outbreak of poisoning occurred four years after the first, Burke went on national television to declare that J&J would only offer Tylenol in caplets, which could not be pulled apart and resealed without consumers knowing about it.

Burke received the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2000. He was named one of history’s ten most outstanding CEOs by Fortune magazine in 2003. In Lasting Leadership: What You Can Learn from the Top 25 Business People of Our Times (2004,) Burke emphasized,

J&J credo has always stated that the company is responsible first to its customers, then to its employees, the community and the stockholders, in that order. The credo is all about the consumer. [When those seven deaths occurred,] the credo made it very clear at that point exactly what we were all about. It gave me the ammunition I needed to persuade shareholders and others to spend the $100 million on the recall. The credo helped sell it.

Trust has been an operative word in my life. It embodies almost everything you can strive for that will help you to succeed. You tell me any human relationship that works without trust, whether it is a marriage or a friendship or a social interaction; in the long run, the same thing is true about business.

Idea for Impact: A Crisis Makes a Leader

The first few days after any disaster or crisis can be a make-or-break time for a company’s and its leaders’ reputation. The urgency experienced during a crisis often gives leaders the go-ahead to enact change faster than ever before.

Admittedly, the Tylenol case study is more clear-cut than most crises because, from the get-go, it is clearly evident that criminals, not Johnson & Johnson, were responsible for the poisoning and the withdrawal of Tylenol from stores was comparatively easier to execute.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. The Biggest Disaster and Its Aftermath // Book Summary of Serhii Plokhy’s ‘Chernobyl: History of a Tragedy’
  2. Two Leadership Lessons from Oscar Munoz, United Airlines CEO
  3. A Superb Example of Crisis Leadership in Action
  4. Leadership is Being Visible at Times of Crises
  5. Making Tough Decisions with Scant Data

Filed Under: Leadership, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Crisis Management, Decision-Making, Ethics, Governance, Leadership, Leadership Lessons, Problem Solving, Risk

When to Stop Thinking and Decide

February 17, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

There’s a difference between the data you’d like to have to decide and the data you’d need before you can make a decision.

When you get to a point where any further data may serve to make your decision better-informed but wouldn’t really change your mind, it’s time to stop deliberating. Make that decision.

Be willing to act on adequate data.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. A Bit of Insecurity Can Help You Be Your Best Self
  2. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  3. More Data Isn’t Always Better
  4. Five Ways … You Could Avoid Being Wrong
  5. Decision-Making Isn’t Black and White

Filed Under: Mental Models Tagged With: Decision-Making, Perfectionism, Risk

Our 10 Most Popular Articles of 2020

December 30, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Top Blog Articles of 2020 Here are our most popular exclusive features of 2020. Pass this on to your friends; if they like these, they can sign up to receive our RSS feeds or email updates.

  • A Quick Way to De-stress. Whenever you feel frenzied, meditation can help you focus inward, pull together your scattered energies, and allow your mind to become calm.
  • Don’t Beat Yourself Up Over Your Mistakes. Don’t agonize about what other people are thinking about you. They’re perhaps busy worrying over what you’re thinking about them.
  • Better than Brainstorming for Rapid Idea Generation. Studies have shown that people think of more new—and practical—ideas on their own than they do in a group.
  • Don’t Let Small Decisions Destroy Your Productivity. Good routines can protect you from your more effective negative impulses and bring order and predictability to your life.
  • Never Outsource a Key Capability. By owning the entire customer experience, Domino Pizza has provided a consistent experience for customers and iterate quickly.
  • When You Talk About Too Many Goals. When it comes to persuasion, clarity and conciseness are critical.
  • Best to Cut Your Losses Early. Best to cut your losses early—you’ll have the least sunk costs and the fewest emotional attachments.
  • What Went Wrong on the Boeing 737 MAX. When you devise a highly reliable system, identify all single points of failure, and investigate how risks and failure modes can be mitigated.
  • How Much Risk Can You Tolerate? Encourage careful experimentation and conscientious risk-taking by lowering the risk waterline.
  • The Power of Negative Thinking. The Stoic practice of premeditatio malorum helps intentionally visualize the worst-case scenario in your mind’s eye and tame your anxiety.

And here are some articles of yesteryear that continue to be popular:

  • Better be approximately right than precisely wrong
  • Why good deeds make people act bad
  • Fight ignorance, not each other
  • Care less for what other people think
  • Be a survivor, not a victim
  • Expressive writing can help you heal
  • One question to ask every morning & find your focus
  • How smart companies get smarter
  • How to manage smart, powerful leaders
  • Accidents can happen when you least

We wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2021!

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  2. A Quick Way to Build Your Confidence Right Now
  3. A Bit of Insecurity Can Help You Be Your Best Self
  4. How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward
  5. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking

Filed Under: Announcements, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Risk, Skills for Success, Thinking Tools

You’ll Never Get a ‘Yes’ If You Never Ask

December 17, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment


It never does any harm to ask for what you want

You'll Never Hear Yes If You Never Ask - Billy Joel fan and piano player Michael Pollack During a Q&A at Vanderbilt University in 2013, lifelong Billy Joel fan and piano player Michael Pollack plucked up the courage and stood up to ask his childhood idol a question.

Pollack, an 18-year-old freshman at Vanderbilt, asked to accompany Joel in a performance of “New York State of Mind,” Pollack’s favorite song: “I was very fortunate to play with Richie Cannata [Joel’s saxophone player] many times in New York City, and I was wondering if I could play it with you.”

With just a hint of hesitation, Joel said, “Okay.”

Joel gave a remarkable vocal performance to accompany Pollack’s piano skills. The crowd applauded.

“Remember that name,” Joel told the excited audience. “Guy’s got chops.”

An online video of the performance quickly went viral.

Stop Overthinking Every Simple (and Not so Simple) Request

Pollack took a risk and traded the possibility of embarrassment and rejection for a lifetime of memories and a huge payoff.

Before long, Pollack signed publishing deals and began collaborating with other musicians. After graduating from Vanderbilt, he wrote dozens of songs for celebrity musicians. This year, he achieved his first U.S. Top 40 radio #1 with Maroon 5’s “Memories.”

Idea for Impact: All it Takes is a Simple Ask

Most folks know that the key to getting what they want is merely asking for it. But they’re too wimpish to speak up.

Take a chance. A little bit of courage can open doors for you. Feel the fear and do it anyway.

Ask for what you want. You sometimes won’t get it, and often the rejection will be painful. But when this works, it works surprisingly well.

Try something today that has a small risk and a huge payoff.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. How to Turn Your Fears into Fuel
  2. How to Face Your Fear and Move Forward
  3. The #1 Learning from Sun Tzu’s Art of War: Avoid Battle
  4. How to Make Others Feel They Owe You One: Reciprocity and Social Influence
  5. Buy Yourself Time

Filed Under: Mental Models Tagged With: Anxiety, Assertiveness, Attitudes, Fear, Negotiation, Persuasion, Risk, Social Skills

A Bit of Insecurity Can Help You Be Your Best Self

December 3, 2020 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Self-confidence, so often peddled by the self-help genre as the panacea for low achievement, can indeed cause it. Beyond a moderate amount, self-confidence is destined to encourage complacency—even conceit. You’ll never reach anything better with that attitude.

Paradoxically, conceding your insecurities—and having a certain amount of humility about your capabilities—-is usually to your advantage.

Deep down, some of history’s greatest icons—from Abraham Lincoln to Mahatma Gandhi—regularly worried that they weren’t good enough. That’s what kept them striving harder.

A Bit of Insecurity Can Help You Be Your Best Self Face up to your self-judgment. Low self-esteem is present only when your self-appraisal is more acute than reality.

Channel that nagging voice in your head that keeps saying negative things about you. Don’t be self-defeatingly vulnerable. Don’t worry yourself into perfection, anxiety, or despair.

Engage that little “sweet spot” of insecurity to motivate yourself to exert the additional effort required to seek a better self. For example, ignore anyone who tries to calm your nerves by telling you to “just be yourself” or “who else could be better suited” before a job interview.

Idea for Impact: Satisfaction can be deadly. Lasting self-confidence derives from your ongoing effort, not by virtue.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Smart Folks are Most Susceptible to Overanalyzing and Overthinking
  2. It’s Probably Not as Bad as You Think: The 20-40-60 Rule
  3. How to Embrace Uncertainty and Leave Room for Doubt
  4. You Can’t Know Everything
  5. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Confidence, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Perfectionism, Risk, Wisdom

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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