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Mental Models

Protect the Downside with Pre-mortems

November 2, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'The Obstacle Is the Way' by Ryan Holiday (ISBN 1591846358) American self-help author Ryan Holiday’s The Obstacle Is the Way (2014) draws inspiration from Stoic philosophy to demonstrate how obstacles and challenges can be transformed into opportunities for personal growth and success. One recommended mindset is the pre-mortem: envisioning potential difficulties aligns with Stoic principles of accepting what one cannot control and focusing on their responses to external events:

In a postmortem, doctors convene to examine the causes of a patient’s unexpected death so they can learn and improve for the next time a similar circumstance arises. Outside of the medical world, we call this a number of things—a debriefing, an exit interview, a wrap-up meeting, a review—but whatever it’s called, the idea is the same: We’re examining the project in hindsight, after it happened.

A pre-mortem is different. In it, we look to envision what could go wrong, what will go wrong, in advance, before we start. Far too many ambitious undertakings fail for preventable reasons. Far too many people don’t have a backup plan because they refuse to consider that something might not go exactly as they wish. Your plan and the way things turn out rarely resemble each other. What you think you deserve is also rarely what you’ll get. Yet we constantly deny this fact and are repeatedly shocked by the events of the world as they unfold.

Idea for Impact: By embracing anticipation, you equip yourself with the tools to fortify your defenses, and in some cases, sidestep challenges altogether. You’re ready with a safety net ready to catch you if you stumble. With anticipation, you can endure.

P.S. Many industries—engineering, manufacturing, healthcare just to name a few—have a very formal, structured, systematic approach to identify and prioritize potential failures, their causes, and their consequences. As with a pre-mortem, the primary purpose of FMEA is to proactively assess and mitigate risks by understanding how a process or system might fail and the impact of those failures.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom

Innovation: Be as Eager to Stop Zombie Projects as You Are to Begin the New

October 26, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Be as Eager to Stop Zombie Projects as You are to Begin the New Innovation entails not only the disciplined creation and implementation of new ideas that add value but also the acumen to identify and cease zombie projects.

Has a project consistently failed to deliver expected outcomes despite substantial investments? Could the project’s objectives be achieved more efficiently through alternative means? Have shifts in strategic direction made the initial goals irrelevant?

Idea for Impact: Instead of pouring additional resources into a zombie project in the hope of eventual success and payback, consider the risk of squandering more funds. In an era of limited resources and unmet demands, making careful resource allocation is a crucial aspect of effective innovation.

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Filed Under: Leading Teams, Mental Models, Project Management, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Creativity, Decision-Making, Innovation, Mental Models, Parables, Problem Solving, Thought Process

Build, Then Optimize

October 24, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Build, Then Optimize Startups often emphasize the importance of optimization, which can lead to significant gains, but only if your business is already functioning well.

Focusing on anything other than garnering interest for your product or service is pointless if no one is genuinely interested. Premature optimization wastes time and resources.

Idea for Impact: Get the basics right, then optimize. Prioritize getting the basics right before becoming fixated on optimization. In fact, avoid targeting incremental improvements when a step change is what you really need.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Entrepreneurs, Getting Things Done, Mental Models, Perfectionism, Thought Process

How to … Overcome Your Limiting Beliefs

September 14, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Your beliefs, rather than your perceived lack of ability, could be the most significant hindrance between your life and the life you want to live. Sadly, self-talk is endless; the more you engage the negative narratives running through your head, the more you’ll abide by them.

Whenever you’re plagued by self-limiting beliefs, gather evidence against them, reframe them, and oppugn them. Scour your brain for real-life examples that debunk the limiting beliefs. For instance, if addressing the self-limiting belief “I am not qualified,” think of as many happenings as possible that you earlier thought you weren’t qualified for—but went on to achieve anyway. These could include being offered a dream job, passing an exam you feared was above your level or showing up when you didn’t think you could.

Idea for Impact: Over time, make a concerted effort to challenge deep-rooted core beliefs by testing them to see if they’re valid. You’ll develop the mental resilience needed to crush the self-limiting beliefs that deter you from reaching your potential.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Attitudes, Emotions, Fear, Mental Models, Motivation, Personal Growth, Worry

The Key to Living In Awareness, Per Eckhart Tolle’s ‘The Power of Now’

September 4, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Eckhart Tolle’s bestselling The Power of Now: A Guide to Spiritual Enlightenment (1999) proposes neither a grand scheme for success nor ethereal concepts for “achieving transcendence.”

Hidden in the New Agey-spin (“The power and infinite creative potential that lie concealed in the now are completely obscured by psychological time”) is a nuanced assertion about silencing the mind’s chatter.

Tolle suggests that you shouldn’t try to be in the present so much as to realize that you always, inescapably, are. Nearly all stress and anxiety come from mental projections about the past or the future. This has been the cornerstone of Hindu, Buddhist, Taoist, and other traditions for over two millennia. Instead of suppressing thoughts of regret about the past or anxiety about the future in a strenuous, counterproductive endeavor to “be present,” you’re to see them for what they are.

By putting your mind into perspective and gently observing—without judgment—what it says and thinks, you’re merely a witness to the rolling tides of reflection and emotion. You are not your thoughts. The moments you spend spinning stories of hope and anxiety, delight and regret, are being centered in the present—you’re doing so now. Nothing ever happens except now, when you’re supposed to be filled with an awareness of being alive.

The present moment is problem free. Troubles need to exist in their own space and time. Consequently, by being in the present, you give less life to them. You’re free from regret and apprehensions when you act from a sense of deep being instead of restlessly seeking to become something.

'The Power of Now' by Eckhart Tolle (ISBN 1577311523) Take things as they come and adjust quickly to what becomes. Disconnect from the thinking mind, accept what is, and be mindful of your presence.

To offer no resistance to life is to be in a state of grace, ease, and lightness. This state is then no longer dependent upon things being in a certain way, good or bad. It seems paradoxical, yet when your inner dependency on form is gone, the general conditions of your life, the outer forms, tend to improve greatly.

Idea for Impact: Life is sacred; being alive is sacred. Relishing that you’re alive, experiencing the sacredness of aliveness, and just being—these are the most integral facets of Tolle’s vision of enlightenment, the “natural state of felt oneness with Being” and feeling “more together.”

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Filed Under: Health and Well-being, Living the Good Life Tagged With: Books, Happiness, Mental Models, Mindfulness, Philosophy, Suffering, Wisdom

You Never Know What’ll Spark Your Imagination (and When)

August 31, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Children find all sorts of unexpected ways to nurture their imagination. With uninhibited curiosity and creativity for fantasy, they can create and connect concepts without inner judgment. What children discover with their active imagination often molds how they see the world and fuels their dreams, as the following cases will illuminate.

Albert Einstein (1879–1955) hardly spoke until he was three. His delayed verbal development made him curious about ordinary things that most grown-ups take for granted—such as the nature of space and time. When he was five and sick in bed, Einstein’s father brought him a contraption that stirred his mind no end. It was the first time he had seen a magnetic compass. Laying in bed, Einstein tried waving and turning the little gadget in vain to trick it into pointing off in a new direction. He later wrote, “A wonder … this experience made a deep and lasting impression upon me. Something deeply hidden had to be behind things.”

Bertrand Russell (1872–1970) was born into a notable aristocratic family. His parents were progressive thinkers and atheists. They chose philosopher John Stuart Mill as Russell’s secular godfather. When Russell’s parents died when he was four, they designated in their will that their progressive friends should look after young Russell and bring him up as an agnostic. But his grandparents intervened, abandoned the parents’ stipulation, and raised Russell and his brother Frank in a strict Christian household. As an adolescent, Russell kept a diary expressing his misgivings about God and concepts of free will. He kept his diary in Greek letters so that his grandparents couldn’t read it. When he went to Cambridge, he bumped into many people who thought the way he did. He actively engaged in debates and discussions. When Russell was eleven, Frank introduced him to the work of Euclid, which Russell described in his autobiography as “one of the great events of my life, as dazzling as first love. I had not imagined there was anything so delicious in the world. From that moment until I was thirty-eight, mathematics was my chief interest and my chief source of happiness.” Russell became the 20th century’s most important agnostic, philosopher, and mathematician.

Ansel Adams (1902–84) had a difficult time in school. An unruly boy, he was hyperactive and dyslexic. He was ousted from several schools. He later wrote, “Education without either meaning or excitement is impossible. I longed for the outdoors, leaving only a small part of my conscious self to pay attention to schoolwork.” His parents eventually gave up and began homeschooling him. When he was 14, they gave him two gifts: a Kodak #1 Box Brownie camera and a trip to Yosemite National Park (the National Parks Service had just been established.) On that family trip, Adams was so captivated by the charm of the mountains and the woods that he would revisit the park every summer for the rest of his life. Adams began experimenting with cameras, solidifying a lifelong connection between his two passions—photography and the natural world. He set the gold standard for art photography in the 20th century. His extraordinary photographs of Yosemite and other wilderness areas became familiar to millions worldwide.

Idea for Impact: You never knew what would spark the imagination. Build your creative muscle. Emphasize effort over the results of creative endeavors and enjoy new experiences. Play. Wander. Rebel. Experiment. Challenge. Indulge. Question. Absorb.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Artists, Creativity, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Your time is far from being wasted!

August 26, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

You’re not just idly passing the hours. Absolutely not!

Every single moment that has brought you to this point has been a skilled artist, shaping and refining you into the extraordinary individual you are today.

Think of it as a magnificent preparation, a strong base upon which the most incredible experiences will soon unfold.

These moments are like booming speakers turned up to the max, magnifying the brilliance that awaits you.

Don’t worry, because all time spent, even in moments of rest and recovery, is not a futile pursuit. On the contrary, it is an absolute necessity, a secret ingredient that adds flavor to the delightful feast that lies ahead. Embrace the journey.

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Filed Under: Career Development, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Fear, Mental Models, Personal Growth, Skills for Success, Thinking Tools, Winning on the Job

Sock Success: How THORLO’s Customer Focus Led to Big Wins

July 3, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Jim Throneburg made socks. Innovative socks. “Activity-specific” padded socks. THORLO, his family-owned sock manufacturing company based in Statesville, North Carolina, is known for its innovative padded socks for various activities such as running, hiking, walking, skiing, and more.

Throneburg’s innovation didn’t come from a flash of genius but from a personal experience. In 1953, Throneburg founded THORLO after seeing his father suffer from foot pain caused by poor-quality socks. He started selling socks out of the trunk of his car. As the quality of the socks gained recognition, the company began to expand. In the 1960s, the product line expanded to include socks for hiking and mountaineering, and in the 1970s, THORLO developed a specialized padding system that could be customized for different activities.

In the late 1970s, Throneburg realized that as the function of shoes changed, so should the design of the socks that complemented them. Drawing from his experience at a weight-loss clinic where he needed thicker-soled socks, he transformed Throneburg Hosiery Mill from a commodity business into an innovative sock manufacturer that became THORLO. He invested in new designs, yarns, and technology that he had perfected, making padded socks for the military. The company has since created dozens of sport-specific sock varieties.

THORLO’s R&D happens where the foot meets the sock and the shoe, addressing everyday problems ordinary people face. Throneburg developed a ladies’ rolltop sock for golf and tennis after a woman golfer complained about her socks slipping down. When a man with a rare foot condition found relief from THORLO’s socks and asked if Throneburg could make socks for his young daughters, Throneburg forwarded the request to product development.

Throneburg held more than 25 patents in the United States and internationally, and he was one of the most prolific inventors in the sock, insole, and shoe industries. His success demonstrated that innovation does not require a flashy tech startup or a billion-dollar budget.

Idea for Impact: Innovation could happen anywhere and at any time. It was not just about new products or cutting-edge technologies but about seeing things differently and understanding customers’wants and needs.

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Filed Under: MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Creativity, Entrepreneurs, Innovation, Marketing, Mental Models

Wide Minds, Bright Ideas: Book Summary of ‘Range: Why Generalists Triumph’ by David Epstein

June 22, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'Range' by David Epstein (ISBN 0735214506) Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World (2019) by science journalist David Epstein challenges the notion that specializing in a narrow field from a young age is the best way to achieve success.

Epstein argues that groundbreaking ideas don’t typically originate from a single individual or function but rather at the point where different skills (or people) intersect. He suggests that individuals with a broad range of interests and skills, or what he refers to as “generalists,” are better suited to tackle complex, poorly defined problems than those who specialize early and narrowly. These generalists not only possess the skills to solve complex problems but are also more comfortable with volatility and unpredictability and can construct compelling narratives of the future.

Epstein presents subjective evidence from various fields, including sports, music, and science, to illustrate how people with diverse interests and experiences tend to have more creativity, flexibility, and adaptability in problem-solving.

Generalists vs. Specialists: The Battle for Expertise Recommendation: Quick read Range. Epstein’s anecdotes often present a universal view in favor of generalists. Without adequate empirical evidence to support his claims, his hypothesis favors, at a minimum, sampling a variety of interesting fields before committing to a particular specialization.

The most coveted jobs today are in complex and unpredictable fields, requiring employees to have broad and flexible knowledge. Moreover, in a world where people are inundated with information but crave wisdom, there’s a pressing need for synthesizers who can gather the right information, think critically, and make informed decisions.

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Filed Under: Career Development, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Mental Models, Skills for Success, Thinking Tools, Thought Process, Winning on the Job

Availability Heuristic: Our Preference for the Familiar

May 27, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that can lead people to rely on readily available information or emotionally charged and inherently interesting examples when making decisions or judgments. Essentially, individuals tend to overestimate the probability of events that are easy to recall or that they’ve personally experienced, while underestimating the likelihood of less memorable or less frequent events.

In other words, the ease of retrieval of a misleading cue may make people rely on evidence not because it is dependable but because it is memorable or striking and thus psychologically available to them. They may do so even if the evidence is not logically acceptable or does not logically support their decision.

Doctors often depend on recalling their past dramatic cases and mistakenly apply them to the current situation. People may overestimate the crime rate in their community based on news coverage, even though crime rates may be relatively low. People may dismiss the reality of climate change if they’ve recently experienced a cold winter or heard of a cold snap in a particular region, even though global warming is a long-term trend. Individuals are more likely to purchase insurance after experiencing a natural disaster than before it occurs. In each of these scenarios, the vivid and emotional evidence feels more persuasive rather than it being the most accurate or reliable information.

The availability heuristic can also shape people’s perceptions of air travel safety and lead them to believe that flying is more dangerous than it really is. Airplane accidents are often sensationalized and highly publicized by the media, making them more memorable and more prominent in people’s minds. This can cause individuals to perceive the risk of flying much higher than it actually is, leading them to avoid air travel even though it is statistically one of the safest forms of transportation. In reality, many less vivid and less memorable (i.e., psychologically unavailable) things are much more dangerous than air travel, such as falling down stairs, drowning, choking, and accidental poisoning.

Avoid falling prey to the availability heuristic and making serious misjudgments about the risks associated with different situations. Acknowledge that personal experiences and recent events may not accurately reflect the overall reality of the situation.

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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