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Jeju Air Flight 2216—The Alleged Failure to Think Clearly Under Fire

July 28, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How Situational Blindness Caused the American Airlines-Black Hawk Fatal Collision Near Reagan National Airport Yet another preliminary report from a fatal airline accident leaves crucial details unresolved and continues to fuel debate—echoing the intense scrutiny surrounding the Air India 171 crash.

In December 2024, Jeju Air Flight 2216 crash-landed at South Korea’s Muan International Airport. The Boeing 737–800 aircraft touched down without deploying its landing gear, overshot the runway at high speed, and struck a concrete structure supporting the Instrument Landing System (ILS) localizer beacon. The resulting fire claimed 179 of the 181 lives on board, marking South Korea’s deadliest aviation disaster in recent decades.

A leaked version of the initial findings indicates that both engines were hit by birds during final approach. The right engine suffered extensive damage, emitting flames and thick black smoke, while the left engine maintained sufficient thrust. Despite this, the flight crew allegedly shut down the left engine. No mechanical faults were found in the aircraft or its engines. Investigators also noted a critical data gap: both the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR) ceased functioning approximately four minutes before impact, leaving key questions about the crew’s decision-making unanswered. The preliminary report avoids definitive conclusions regarding crew actions, citing limitations in scope.

Aviation experts have expressed frustration over the absence of conclusive evidence about the crew’s decisions—particularly given the missing CVR and FDR data. Shutting down a functioning engine dramatically limits aircraft control and reduces the chance of executing a go-around or controlled landing. The report has also drawn criticism for downplaying airport infrastructure flaws. The structure the aircraft collided with was made of non-frangible material—contrary to international safety standards, which recommend breakaway designs to mitigate impact severity. If it emerges that the emergency landing was skillfully executed, the aircraft might have skidded further and come to a natural stop. A final, more comprehensive report is expected next summer.

If early findings are confirmed—especially the shutdown of the less-damaged engine—this accident may serve as another tragic example of cognitive overload under intense stress. Pilots in high-pressure situations can experience “narrowing of the cognitive map,” a phenomenon where tunnel vision compromises situational awareness and hinders sound decision-making. Inattentional blindness may also cause individuals to miss vital environmental cues—a pattern I’ve observed in numerous other aviation incidents covered on this blog.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. “Fly the Aircraft First”
  2. Lessons from the World’s Worst Aviation Disaster // Book Summary of ‘The Collision on Tenerife’
  3. How Stress Impairs Your Problem-Solving Capabilities: Case Study of TransAsia Flight 235
  4. What Airline Disasters Teach About Cognitive Impairment and Decision-Making Under Stress
  5. Under Pressure, The Narrowing Cognitive Map: Lessons from the Tragedy of Singapore Airlines Flight 6

Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Aviation, Biases, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Stress

What the Rise of AI Demands: Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking

July 22, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Rise of AI Demands Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking Spellcheck doesn’t create bad spellers; it lets spelling atrophy. Autocorrect and red squiggles do the work, and users stop internalizing rules. Just as GPS dulls a sense of direction, spellcheck erodes linguistic instinct. Remove the tool, and spelling falters—not from ignorance, but from disuse.

Now, AI poses a deeper threat. Its danger isn’t power; it’s passivity. Overreliance produces a generation unprepared for work that demands creativity and critical thought. Intellectual laziness already plagues classrooms, and AI only intensifies it.

To resist that drift, education must evolve. It isn’t enough to teach information—we must also teach metacognition. Students need to examine their own thinking: to ask why they believe something, how they reach conclusions, and where their reasoning fails. AI can assist, but only if used deliberately. It should provoke thought rather than replace it. By offering counterarguments and exposing blind spots, it sharpens cognition.

Idea for Impact: The real danger isn’t AI itself. It’s what we stop doing when it takes over. The spellcheck lesson still holds: unused skills don’t vanish; they decay.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Question the Now, Imagine the Next
  2. Overcoming Personal Constraints is a Key to Success
  3. The Solution to a Problem Often Depends on How You State It
  4. Defect Seeding: Strengthen Systems, Boost Confidence
  5. How to Solve a Problem By Standing It on Its Head

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Innovation, Problem Solving, Questioning, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Conscience is A Flawed Compass

July 21, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

A Reflection on Why Conscience is a Flawed Moral Compass: Example of Jefferson and Slavery Conscience isn’t as reliable a guide on moral questions as it’s often made out to be. Consider Thomas Jefferson’s advice to his impressionable 11-year-old daughter, Martha:

If ever you are about to say anything amiss or to do anything wrong, consider beforehand. You will feel something within you which will tell you it is wrong and ought not to be said or done: this is your conscience, and be sure to obey it. Our Maker has given us all this faithful internal monitor, and if you always obey it, you will always be prepared for the end of the world, or for a much more certain event, which is death.

Yet despite publicly opposing slavery, Jefferson conveniently owned enslaved people to support his lavish lifestyle and even fathered children with an enslaved woman.

This stark contradiction highlights a critical truth: even a informed and discerning conscience does not guarantee consistently virtuous action, particularly when self-interest is at stake.

And that’s the great paradox of conscience—the inherent tension between the powerful, felt imperative to obey one’s inner moral sense and its demonstrated fallibility and subjectivity and inconsistency.

Moral consistency is a myth.

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  2. The Streisand Effect: When Trying to Hide Only Makes it Shine
  3. Of Course Mask Mandates Didn’t ‘Work’—At Least Not for Definitive Proof
  4. Virtue Deferred: Marcial Maciel, The Catholic Church, and How Institutions Learn to Look Away
  5. Why Incentives Backfire and How to Make Them Work: Summary of Uri Gneezy’s Mixed Signals

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Conflict, Conviction, Critical Thinking, Ethics, Integrity, Philosophy, Psychology, Virtues

Of Course Mask Mandates Didn’t ‘Work’—At Least Not for Definitive Proof

July 17, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Data Gap: Why Mask Mandate Proof Remains Unclear We will never definitively prove whether mask mandates worked during the COVID-19 pandemic—not with the crisp authority of pharmacological trials—because the circumstances themselves resisted clarity. Proper Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) would have required a moral obscenity: randomly splitting a population, enforcing strict mask-wearing protocols for one group and none for the other, then deliberately exposing both to infectious conditions.

Intentionally subjecting people to a deadly virus under strained public health systems—merely to pursue statistical precision—violates basic ethical norms. Moreover, the real world is inherently hostile to clean variables (a topic I explored when discussing why airline boarding is a mess): mask adherence fluctuates, viral variants evolve unpredictably, and public behavior veers between paranoia and apathy. Isolating the signal of mask mandates in this noise is akin to seeking symmetry in a kaleidoscope.

Perhaps the most sobering takeaway is that future efforts to evaluate sweeping health interventions will confront the same empirical turbulence and ethical dilemmas—making “absolute” answers perpetually elusive. Even much-cited studies, such as the Bangladesh mask trial, invite selective interpretation. Hopefuls and skeptics alike will highlight findings that align with their beliefs.

Yet despite all this indeterminacy, masks occupied a peculiar place in the public psyche—a signal of intent, a behavioral nudge. Their utility became less a question of virology and more one of psychology: the low cost and plausible benefit lured even the doubtful into compliance.

The broader lesson is clear: public health policy, like rhetoric, thrives not in absolutes but in persuasion, compromise, and the murky middle. And it is in that middle where humanity must weigh its choices.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. The Data Never “Says”
  2. The Problem of Living Inside Echo Chambers
  3. Ethics Lessons From Akira Kurosawa’s ‘High and Low’
  4. To Know Is to Contradict: The Power of Nuanced Thinking
  5. Tales vs. Truth & Anecdotal Evidence: The Case of Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Conflict, Conviction, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Persuasion, Philosophy, Social Dynamics, Thinking Tools

Optimize with Intent

June 26, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Effectiveness-Efficiency Balance: Optimizing with Purpose Cutting tennis balls in half might let you store more in a standard 3-ball tube, but the sacrifice is stark.

Effectiveness is achieving what you set out to do. Efficiency is how well you use your resources. Efficiently wrong is still wrong.

Idea for Impact: Optimize with purpose. Innovation must support your objective without undermining it.

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  5. The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent

Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Goals, Innovation, Mental Models, Parables, Problem Solving, Targets

AI, Hype, and the Art of Overstatement

June 19, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'Green Dot Assist' at Starbucks: AI, Hype, and the Art of Overstatement The corporate world has developed a compulsive need to slap “AI” onto everything, as if the mere presence of the term turns mundane software into magic. Since large language models like ChatGPT hit the scene in late 2022, the trend has only accelerated, rebranding basic automation as “AI-powered” marvels—at least in name.

Starbucks has just jumped in, triumphantly announcing it’s using “AI to cut coffee prep time.” One might imagine robotic baristas adjusting grind size and pulling espresso shots with machine-like precision. But no. Instead, they’ve introduced “Green Dot Assist,” a digital manual on an iPad. It won’t brew coffee. It won’t optimize anything. It’ll simply answer questions like “What’s in the seasonal gingerbread latte?” and “How do I unjam the ice machine?”

This isn’t some groundbreaking AI revolution streamlining coffee prep. It’s a search function. A glorified FAQ. A way for overworked baristas to quickly check whether that obscure drink from last year’s promotion had caramel drizzle on the cold foam. But slap “AI” on it, and suddenly, it’s innovation.

AI has become a hollow incantation—uttered by the unctuous and the unthinking to signal “progress” without delivering any. And consumers and investors are eagerly lapping up this glorification of the mundane. Companies know it triggers excitement, even when the product is just the siren song of hollow spectacle.

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. Airline Safety Videos: From Dull Briefings to Dynamic Ad Platforms
  3. Sometimes, Wrong Wins Right
  4. The Singapore Girl: Myth, Marketing, and Manufactured Grace
  5. Your Product May Be Excellent, But Is There A Market For It?

Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Innovation, Marketing, Parables, Starbucks

The Barnum Effect and the Appeal of Vagueness

June 2, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

When was the last time you cracked open a fortune cookie? No Chinese takeaway feels complete without this crunchy treat and its mysterious message inside. These tiny slips of paper often claim to offer insights into your future or personality, and many read them with curiosity. However, how much truth can really be hidden inside a mass-produced cookie?

Humans Seek Personal Meaning in Fortune Cookie Messages Most fortune cookie messages are vague, allowing for personal interpretation. None of these offer specifics—no details about time, place, or context. Because of this ambiguity, readers can easily connect the message to something in their own lives. “A pleasant surprise is waiting for you” could apply to anything from a surprise visit to an unexpected windfall. “The harder you work, the luckier you get” shares a motivational cliché. “You know how to have fun with others and enjoy solitude” covers two opposite traits, increasing the chance it resonates with anyone.

This phenomenon is explained by the Barnum Effect, where people see personal meaning in broad or generic statements. Named after the pioneering American showman P. T. Barnum, whose entertainment appealed to all tastes, the term highlights how people accept vague messages as uniquely relevant to them.

Several factors contribute to the strength of the Barnum Effect. Personalization plays a key role—when a message is framed as being specifically “for you,” it becomes more convincing. Positivity also boosts acceptance, as people are naturally more inclined to believe favorable descriptions or predictions. The perceived credibility of the source matters too; messages from trusted or well-known individuals are generally more persuasive. Finally, individual personality traits can influence susceptibility—those who seek external validation or approval are more likely to accept vague or general statements as personally meaningful.

Generic Horoscopes: People Seek Relevance, Find Comforting Validation The Barnum Effect, also known as the Forer Effect, describes a psychological phenomenon where individuals believe that general personality descriptions are tailored specifically to them, even though these descriptions are vague enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect helps explain why people often believe in horoscopes. Horoscopes typically use broad and positive statements that resonate with many, creating a sense of personal validation. People tend to focus on the parts of the horoscope that seem to fit their lives, a phenomenon called confirmation bias, while overlooking the parts that don’t. Additionally, the desire for comfort, guidance, and a sense of control during uncertain times can make the seemingly personalized insights of horoscopes appealing.

The Barnum Effect also explains the appeal of online quizzes that categorize you, such as those suggesting which fictional character you resemble or your Hogwarts house. These quizzes often yield flattering results with general positive traits associated with desirable categories. Despite being based on broad answers, the resulting descriptions include appealing and relatable attributes, fostering a sense of recognition and surprising accuracy, even if the connection is weak. The enjoyable nature of these quizzes and the positive self-perception gained from the association further strengthen belief in their validity.

Similarly, the Barnum Effect clarifies why people find online quizzes linking superficial choices like car color to personality to be accurate. These quizzes offer broad, positive descriptions tied to different options, presenting traits individuals often want to claim. Despite a likely tenuous connection, the Barnum Effect makes these general statements feel personally relevant. Focusing on perceived alignments and overlooking inconsistencies reinforces belief in the quiz’s insights, and the self-reflection it prompts can also contribute to this feeling of accuracy.

So, next time you’re tempted to believe a fortune cookie’s prophecy—or an online quiz result—remember how easily we can be swayed by generic, feel-good predictions.

  • Be Skeptical of Generality: Recognize and question vague statements that could apply to almost anyone. Look for specific, unique details instead.
  • Actively Seek Disconfirmation: Don’t just focus on what seems to fit. Consciously look for parts of the description that don’t resonate with you.
  • Consider the Source and Objectivity: Evaluate who is providing the information and whether they have any biases or motivations to appeal to a wide audience.

Idea for Impact: It’s part of human nature to read meaning into vague predictions and statements. A little skepticism can go a long way.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Why Incentives Backfire and How to Make Them Work: Summary of Uri Gneezy’s Mixed Signals
  2. The Wisdom of the Well-Timed Imperfection: The ‘Pratfall Effect’ and Authenticity
  3. When Work Becomes a Metric, Metrics Risk Becoming the Work: A Case Study of the Stakhanovite Movement
  4. Tales vs. Truth & Anecdotal Evidence: The Case of Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx
  5. The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Motivation, Parables, Persuasion, Psychology

Question the Now, Imagine the Next

May 22, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Critical and Creative Minds: Question the Now, Imagine the Next The critical mind questions the world as it is. The creative mind dares to envision what it could become.

The critical mind measures the real against the ideal. The creative mind brings the ideal to life, defying the limits of the possible.

The critical mind uncovers flaws and probes deeper. The creative mind hunts for solutions, testing uncharted paths.

The critical mind sees the parts as transient and malleable. The creative mind sees the whole as boundless, full of untapped potential.

The critical mind confronts authority and conformity. The creative mind builds new worlds that liberate and expand.

The critical mind shatters the old and the stagnant. The creative mind breathes life into what was once rigid, shaping it into new forms.

The critical mind questions the very limits of human capacity. The creative mind shatters them, reaching for what seems unreachable.

The critical mind tears down what is worn and dull. The creative mind forges what is vibrant and alive.

Together, they can drive you forward—each unfinished without the other.

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. What the Rise of AI Demands: Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking
  3. Disproven Hypotheses Are Useful Too
  4. Overcoming Personal Constraints is a Key to Success
  5. The Data Never “Says”

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Discipline, Innovation, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Increase Paranoia When Things Are Going Well

February 20, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Increase Paranoia When Things Are Going Well The makers and operators of the RMS Titanic were so confident in their shipbuilding that its Captain, Edward Smith, one of the world’s most experienced sea captains at the time, had famously declared a few years earlier about another company ship, the RMS Adriatic, “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.” Well, we all know how the Titanic’s maiden voyage turned out.

Success can sometimes blind us to potential disasters. The Titanic carried 2,207 people but had only enough lifeboats for 1,178. This oversight stemmed from outdated maritime safety regulations that based lifeboat requirements on ship tonnage rather than passenger numbers.

When you’re riding high—whether it’s launching hit products, enjoying a surge of clients, or watching your bank account swell—it’s easy to imagine nothing could go wrong. But disaster can strike faster than you can say “iceberg.” Markets can shift, demand can evaporate, and cash flow can dry up.

Wise people know that fortunes are fickle. They question success more than failure, asking more when things are going well than when they’re struggling. They anticipate problems by asking, “What do I want, and what could get in the way?”

Idea for Impact: Success should sharpen your awareness. See paranoia not as irrational fear but as vigilance. Even in prosperity, maintain a nagging sense of potential danger. Stay alert, anticipate challenges, and adapt swiftly. Never let complacency set in, even in the best of times.

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. Accidents Can Happen When You Least Expect Them: The Overconfidence Effect
  3. The “Ashtray in the Sky” Mental Model: Idiot-Proofing by Design
  4. The Historian’s Fallacy: People of the Past Had No Knowledge of the Future
  5. Four Ideas for Business Improvement Ideas

Filed Under: Leadership, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Confidence, Critical Thinking, Mental Models, Mindfulness, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

When Work Becomes a Metric, Metrics Risk Becoming the Work: A Case Study of the Stakhanovite Movement

February 10, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Aleksei Stakhanov: The Soviet Miner Who Redefined Productivity Standards

The Struggles of a Low-Performing Mine & The Birth of a Hero

Alexei Grigoriyevich Stakhanov (1906–77) was a miner from Donbass, a coal-rich region in Soviet Ukraine where all mines were state-run with strict monthly production quotas. Failure to meet these targets often resulted in trouble for managers and local Communist Party officials.

Stakhanov worked in one of the region’s lowest-performing mines. Despite having no education beyond primary school, he was determined to improve his community’s productivity. Driven by a deep sense of responsibility, he relentlessly searched for ways to boost output and eventually devised a novel solution.

In the 1930s, miners used picks to extract coal, which was then hauled out by pit ponies. In cramped tunnels, miners would hack away at the coal while propping up the roof with logs. Stakhanov proposed a new system: one miner would focus on continuously picking coal, another would load it onto carts, a third would prop the roof, and a fourth would guide the ponies. He also suggested replacing the traditional pick with a heavy mining drill, requiring specialized training. Despite initial skepticism from the manager, Stakhanov persuaded the team leader and local party official to give it a try.

On the night of August 30, 1935, Stakhanov, along with three colleagues, entered the mine with the party boss and a local reporter. Six hours later, they emerged victorious, having mined 102 tons of coal—more than 14 times the original target.

The feat drew immediate attention. The local newspaper published Stakhanov’s story, and Soviet industry minister Sergo Ordzhonikidze shared it with Joseph Stalin. Soon, Stakhanov’s achievement was celebrated in Pravda, the central party newspaper. After Stalin’s endorsement, the story spread across the Soviet Union, and Stakhanov became a national hero and a symbol of Soviet productivity.

The Obsession with Metrics

Stakhanov’s achievement remains a pivotal moment in Soviet history. It became a shining example of efficiency, elevating him to the status of the ideal worker in the eyes of the Soviet state. His success sparked the Stakhanovite Movement, a state-driven campaign that encouraged workers to exceed their quotas and demonstrate the superiority of socialism.

Stakhanov’s image quickly flooded posters and newspapers, celebrated as a national role model. In December 1935, as America was still grappling with the Great Depression, Time magazine featured Stakhanov on its cover, bringing his story to American shores and solidifying his international fame. After his death, the important industrial city of Kadiivka in the Donbass region was renamed Stakhanov in his honor, a tribute that lasted from 1978 until 2016.

The Stakhanovite Movement: When Metrics Drive Work, Not Outcomes The Stakhanov Movement capitalized on the collective desire for improvement and transformation, leading to increased productivity through better-organized workflows. However, as often happens, when metrics become the sole focus, they overshadow the true purpose of the work. In the Soviet system, the state had to ensure control over production, align workers’ efforts with central economic plans, and maximize output. Quotas played a key role in this strategy, setting mandatory production targets across various industries. Over time, these quotas became the primary measure of success, with workers judged by numbers rather than the quality or long-term impact of their efforts. Those who failed to meet the targets risked being labeled as “wreckers” and accused of sabotaging the system. Stakhanovites were celebrated as heroes, rewarded with media attention, lavish rewards, and even having their names immortalized on factories and streets.

This obsession with metrics led to manipulation, particularly with the “socialist competition” that the Stakhanovite Movement encouraged. Groups and individuals competed to exceed production norms. Workers, fixated on meeting targets, sometimes resorted to shortcuts or ignored safety standards to boost output. As a result, the real goals—sustainable production, worker welfare, and innovation—became secondary pursuits. The metric of raw output became the work itself, distorting its true purpose.

The Obsession with Metrics: A Cautionary Tale

The Stakhanovite Movement highlighted the dangers of an obsession with productivity metrics and how they can distort the true nature of work.

While metrics can serve as useful benchmarks, aligning efforts with goals and driving performance, excessive focus on them can shift the emphasis from the work itself to the measurement process. Each new metric introduces an opportunity cost—resources are drained, and your team’s time is consumed.

When employees become fixated on hitting targets, they often prioritize numbers over innovation and lose sight of the bigger picture. Over-reliance on metrics can distort performance, neglect long-term goals, and stifle creativity.

Complex tasks involve many variables that a single metric cannot capture. Focusing too narrowly on one measure risks oversimplifying the situation, missing critical factors, and turning the work into a mechanical process.

Idea for Impact: Challenge metrics that don’t add value. Discard those that fail to measure real success. Take control of meaningless measurements and strike the right balance between measurable performance and the true purpose of the work.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. Why Incentives Backfire and How to Make Them Work: Summary of Uri Gneezy’s Mixed Signals
  2. Be Careful What You Count: The Perils of Measuring the Wrong Thing
  3. Numbers Games: Summary of The Tyranny of Metrics by Jerry Muller
  4. People Do What You Inspect, Not What You Expect
  5. Master the Middle: Where Success Sets Sail

Filed Under: Business Stories, Leading Teams, Managing People, Mental Models Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Ethics, Goals, Motivation, Performance Management, Persuasion, Psychology, Targets

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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