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Why Major Projects Fail: Summary of Bent Flyvbjerg’s Book ‘How Big Things Get Done’

September 24, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Famous Construction Project Failures and The Curse of the Megaproject: Over Budget, Over Due

High-profile construction megaprojects routinely plunge into crisis through mismanagement and unforeseen complications. Boston’s Big Dig exemplifies this pattern as it swelled to five times its intended budget, dragging the city through nearly two decades of disruption before concluding in 2007. Sydney’s Opera House began as a modest four-year, $7-million plan and morphed into a 14-year, $102-million ordeal—its ever-evolving design and underestimated complexity a cautionary tale in unchecked ambition. Montreal’s 1976 Olympic Stadium, derisively dubbed the “Big Owe,” left taxpayers grappling with debt for over 30 years, and Germany’s Berlin Brandenburg Airport staggered behind schedule for a decade before finally opening in 2020.

Bent Flyvbjerg and journalist Dan Gardner meticulously deconstruct these tribulations in How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between (2023.) Their exhaustive study of 16,000 projects reveals that a mere 8.5% adhere to their initial time and budget estimates, with an unforgiving 0.5% delivering on time, cost, and promised impact. Project planners often engage in strategic misrepresentation, deliberately understating expenses to secure approval, while the sunk-cost fallacy pits stakeholders against cutting their losses despite mounting over-expenditure. Speed without foresight compounds disaster.

'How Big Things Get Done' by Bent Flyvbjerg (ISBN 593239512) In sharp contrast, China’s rapid rollout of the world’s largest high-speed rail network demonstrates the power of standardization and modular design. By employing repetition over reinvention, the nation completed its vast system in under a decade—a testament to disciplined execution. Pixar’s playbook in American animation underscores the virtues of a robust pre-production phase; meticulous storyboarding and character development catch chaos before it spreads, ensuring a smoother production process. Similarly, the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao stands as an exemplar of efficient project management. Frank Gehry’s pioneering use of advanced computer-aided design let his iconic vision be refined in silicon before forged in steel.

These case studies drive home a singular truth: megaprojects succeed when disciplined forecasting, realistic budgeting, and proactive risk assessment govern the process. Conversely, the allure of expediency—the temptation to overpromise and underdeliver—is often the prelude to collapse. Flyvbjerg and Gardner’s analysis cuts through the hubris of grand plans, offering a compelling narrative that contrasts spectacular failures with triumphs born from deliberate design and rigorously earned execution.

Recommendation: Fast-read How Big Things Get Done—its stories don’t just teach project management; they expose the anatomy of ambition. Managing complexity demands more than vision. It requires a systematic, no-nonsense commitment to planning, precision, and integrity. This exploration offers a sobering yet galvanizing blueprint for anyone engaged in—and affected by—the colossal undertaking of building our modern world.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Leadership, Mental Models, Project Management Tagged With: Biases, Budgeting, Decision-Making, Goals, Leadership Lessons, Procrastination, Risk, Targets, Time Management

The ‘Small’ Challenge for Big Companies

September 19, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Innovation: The 'Small' Challenge for Big Companies This HBR article highlights a compelling asymmetry in team dynamics: large teams excel at development and deployment, while small teams are better suited for disruption. Large teams execute. Small teams disrupt. The former march in formation; the latter think in rebellion.

Anecdotally, that rings true. Smaller teams, leaner in structure and tighter in cohesion, thrive at birthing radical ideas and reframing paradigms. They move quickly because they aren’t bogged down by bureaucracy and status meetings. They share context without memos, pivot without permission, and fail without fanfare. Their edge is subtraction: less red tape, fewer egos, and, mercifully, no corporate pep talks. That’s why Amazon swears by the “two-pizza team” rule—agility thrives in small bites.

Large teams thrive at refinement. They have the muscle to scale, test, and adapt ideas for customers. Their access to resources, infrastructure, and markets gives them an advantage in execution.

Disruption favors the quiet hum of concentrated minds, not the roar of crowded rooms. That’s why forward-thinking companies seed Skunkworks, nimble innovation cells within large organizations, designed to marry the agility of small teams with the power of big ones. A lightweight alternative is the ad hoc hackathon: short, focused bursts of innovation where small teams or cross-company partnerships can rapidly prototype with minimal overhead.

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Filed Under: Leading Teams, Mental Models Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Diversity, Group Dynamics, Innovation, Psychology, Social Dynamics, Teams

The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent

September 1, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Repetition Until Enlightenment: The Mere Exposure Effect Explains Why We Fall for the Most Persistent

GEICO is renowned for its relentless and quirky advertising. Its auto insurance campaigns feature a memorable, rotating cast of mascots, most famously a talking gecko with a British accent proclaiming the catchy “15% in 15 minutes.” Also prominent are a group of cavemen, hilariously offended by the notion that buying insurance is “so easy, even a caveman could do it,” and a cheerful camel celebrating Hump Day. These ads are everywhere: television, radio, online—even pre-rolls before YouTube videos. The repetition isn’t accidental—it’s strategic. GEICO has laced its brand into consumers’ consciousness by brute repetition. We’re not so much convinced by GEICO as held hostage by its consistency. And it works. We know them. We might even trust them—begrudgingly.

That’s a prime example of the Mere Exposure Effect. Coined by psychologist Robert Zajonc, this mental model describes the human tendency to prefer things simply because we’ve encountered them before. It’s a cognitive shortcut: familiarity breeds comfort, and comfort breeds trust—not because the thing is better, but because it’s known.

Exposure: The Unseen Influence

Consider also the example of Empire Today, a company that sells installed carpet, hardwood, and vinyl flooring. But what it sells most effectively is its phone number. “800-588-2300 Empire Today!” is a jingle that’s been broadcast across U.S. television and radio since the 1970s. It’s not catchy in the traditional sense. It’s simply repeated so often that it becomes part of the mental wallpaper. We don’t need to know what Empire does to know how to reach them. That’s the power of exposure.

McDonald's McDonald’s has long leaned on jingles like “I’m Lovin’ It,” which, while not musically profound, have been repeated for decades. This repetition creates emotional anchoring. We associate the tune with the brand, and that association influences behavior. Ba-da-ba-ba-ba.

But repetition is a blade that dulls quickly. When exposure becomes saturation, we turn away. The trick is knowing when to stop before we reach for the mute button. This effect isn’t limitless—it’s a tightrope.

And it doesn’t just live in advertising. It’s stitched into daily life. We reach for the song we’ve played thirty times because it feels safe. We favor faces we recognize in crowds because unfamiliarity feels like risk. Familiarity smooths the world’s sharp edges. We call it instinct, but often it’s just recall with better PR.

How Repetition Rewires Your Preferences

We’re drawn not only to the thing itself, but to its repetition, its stability. Something consistent across time and place—same colors, same voice, same message—feels trustworthy. And when others start echoing that message, the effect deepens. Exposure transforms into consensus, and suddenly what’s familiar becomes what’s “right.”

We don’t choose what we like as much as we think. We gravitate toward what we’ve seen, heard, and scrolled past enough times for our brains to say, “Sure, why not.” The Mere Exposure Effect doesn’t shout—it accumulates. And by the time we realize how much it’s shaped our tastes, we’ve already bought in.

Idea for Impact: Familiarity breeds trust, often without scrutiny. Over-familiarity channels the lazy mind. We stop questioning not when we’re convinced, but when we’re accustomed.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Biases, Communication, Creativity, Innovation, Marketing, Mental Models, Parables, Persuasion, Psychology

Virtue Deferred: Marcial Maciel, The Catholic Church, and How Institutions Learn to Look Away

August 13, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Virtue Deferred: Marcial Maciel, The Catholic Church, and How Institutions Learn to Look Away Organizations often face a moral dilemma when confronting high-performing individuals—those rainmakers whose charisma and drive yield tangible results (Jack Welch’s ‘Four Types of Managers’ model.) They secure vital funding, lead winning campaigns, and appear central to the organization’s mission. Their value is clear. Their presence seems irreplaceable. Leadership, captivated by performance, may grow dependent on them.

Yet behind the brilliance, some of these figures violate core principles. They may cultivate toxic workplaces, breach ethical boundaries, or engage in outright abuse. This reveals a troubling paradox: the same individuals who fuel success may simultaneously erode the institution’s moral foundation. Fearing the loss of key assets, organizations may choose to look the other way—or worse, actively protect them.

Tolerance of this behavior extracts a steep cost. Morale withers. Trust deteriorates. Cultures of fear and duplicity take root. Behind a polished facade, core values decay. Integrity is sacrificed for short-term gain.

Few cases illustrate this more vividly than that of Marcial Maciel and the Catholic Church.

A Charismatic Predator Shielded by Power

In 2019, to mark the 80th anniversary of Pius XII’s elevation to Bishop of Rome, Pope Francis announced the opening of Vatican archives from his papacy. Scholars welcomed the decision, many of them drawn to longstanding controversies regarding Pius XII’s role during the Holocaust.

Included in this research were damning revelations about Marcial Maciel Degollado (1920–2008,) the Mexican priest who founded the Legion of Christ and the Regnum Christi religious order. Lauded as “the greatest fundraiser of the modern Roman Catholic Church,” Maciel transformed the Legion into a formidable spiritual, financial, and political force.

Beneath this polished image, however, lay systemic abuse.

Maciel was a chronic drug addict and serial predator who molested at least 60 boys and young men under his care. After his death, reports revealed that he had fathered multiple children—two of whom he allegedly abused—and maintained sexual relationships with several women, including one reportedly underage. His authorship of the book Integral Formation of Catholic Priests (1997) stands in grim contrast to the depraved reality of his life and actions, underscoring a profound institutional moral corruption.

The archives showed that senior Church officials, including Pope Pius XII, were aware of Maciel’s misconduct as early as the 1940s. Efforts to remove him began in 1956 but were halted following the pope’s death. Despite mounting evidence, Maciel remained in power for decades.

'Betrayal Crisis Catholic Church' by Boston Globe (ISBN 0316776750) Why was he protected? Because he was more than a priest—he was a rainmaker. His ability to attract wealth and influence made his misconduct inconvenient. The institution prioritized survival over accountability.

Even after repeated warnings and detailed accusations, the Church delayed meaningful action for over half a century. Only in 2006 did Pope Benedict XVI remove Maciel from public ministry, ordering him into a secluded life of prayer and penance. He died two years later. In 2010, the Vatican formally condemned his “reprehensible actions” and placed the Legion under direct papal oversight.

The Institutional Blind Spot: When Success Shields Abuse

Maciel’s story is not just a case of individual moral failure. It is a systemic cautionary tale. He turned the Legionaries of Christ into a financial and political juggernaut, directing millions toward Church coffers and gaining favor with powerful bishops and cardinals. In the institutional calculus of power, his sins were inconvenient, but his financial value was immense. He was shielded not despite his crimes, but because of them.

When institutions conflate prospering with virtue, they protect the golden goose—even when it lays rotten eggs. Often this happens not out of malice, but out of habit. In doing so, they risk betraying the very mission they claim to uphold.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Leadership, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Biases, Conviction, Ethics, Getting Along, Integrity, Likeability, Motivation, Performance Management, Psychology

The Wisdom of the Well-Timed Imperfection: The ‘Pratfall Effect’ and Authenticity

August 4, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Wisdom of the Authentic Pratfall: How Imperfection and Honesty Build Real Connection

In a culture obsessed with flawless presentation, revealing one’s imperfections may seem risky. Yet it can be unexpectedly powerful. This paradox—where a minor misstep enhances likability—is known in psychology as the Pratfall Effect, a phenomenon explored by social psychologist Elliot Aronson in the 1960s. His research found that a small, harmless error, when made by someone already viewed as competent, could deepen that person’s appeal. Competence inspires admiration, but fallibility invites connection.

Aronson illustrated this effect through a clever experiment. Participants listened to audio recordings of quiz-show contestants: one confident and high-performing, the other more mediocre. In some versions, the contestant spilled coffee mid-interview—a minor blunder. The competent contestant’s likability surged after the incident. In contrast, the average one saw no such boost. The study’s insight was precise: credibility sets the stage, but imperfection activates charm. Without initial competence, a flaw simply reads as failure.

The term Pratfall comes from slapstick comedy—a clumsy tumble played for laughs. But in the context of psychology, it gestures toward something more revealing: perfection creates distance. It can feel untouchable, even intimidating. A stumble, however slight, signals humanity. We feel closer not when others perform flawlessly, but when they allow their guard to drop.

Imperfect, Therefore Credible: When Admitting Weakness Builds Trust

Beyond Flawless: How Imperfection Boosts Appeal, Featuring Unilever's Real Beauty Revolution Marketers have adapted this insight with varying degrees of boldness. Dove, the personal care brand under Unilever, redefined beauty norms by spotlighting authenticity. Its “Real Beauty” campaign intentionally moved away from airbrushed models and showcased everyday bodies in ways that emphasized inner confidence and natural grace. Footwear retailer Zappos, known for its customer service ethos, leaned into its imperfections—openly acknowledging logistical hiccups and turning transparency into a form of customer intimacy. Ryanair, the European budget airline, took a more sardonic approach: it flaunts its no-frills discomfort, mocks traditional notions of luxury, and builds loyalty by refusing to pretend it was anything other than economical. Across these cases, flaws—whether candid or stylized—became signals of integrity.

For Ryanair especially, naming its limitations worked to clarify its priorities. Legroom may be tight, amenities scarce—but the promise of low fares and operational efficiency remained untouched. By owning its tradeoffs, the airline avoided suspicion. Concealment breeds doubt. Disclosure builds trust.

There’s also rhetorical value in this strategy. When a brand confesses to a shortcoming, it earns credibility—positioning itself to be believed when making a claim. Guinness, once hampered by delays in delivery, recast the wait as part of its charm with the tagline “Good things come to those who wait,” transforming patience into a premium. Stella Artois, a Belgian lager with upscale branding, embraced its high price point with “Reassuringly Expensive”—suggesting quality rather than excess. Lyons, a tea brand rooted in Irish tradition, celebrated its product not as a daily necessity but as a gentle, well-deserved indulgence. In each case, marketers found strength not by dodging imperfection, but by weaving it into the narrative.

Still, the Pratfall Effect has its internal tensions. Within corporate settings, the incentives that shape messaging can clash with those that govern individual risk. What elevates the brand might jeopardize the marketer. Vulnerability can look bold on a campaign brief but risky on a performance review. If an attempt at candor falters, it may be viewed as recklessness. In such environments, polish prevails.

In Business and Life, Curated Imperfection Creates Shared Meaning, Not Just Market Advantage

Some brands opt out entirely. Chanel and Lexus, for instance, present pristine identities that avoid the pratfall’s logic. Chanel tells stories of timeless elegance—floating above everyday context, immune to blemish. Lexus, Toyota’s luxury arm, relies on precision and craftsmanship. Their appeal stems from aspiration, not relatability. To these brands, imperfection risks dilution; their value proposition hinges on exclusivity, not accessibility.

Embrace Your Pratfall: How Mistakes and Authenticity Build Connection Yet the Pratfall Effect isn’t limited to marketing. It manifests in the more intimate moments of daily life. In romance, a small confession can melt emotional distance. In job interviews, an honest error, paired with thoughtfulness, can signal growth and humility. The fusion of capability and candor conveys something rare: a confidence that doesn’t rely on control.

This balancing act—practicing vulnerability without artifice—reveals character. Perfection, though impressive, can feel sterile. What persuades is often more textured: a self-aware flaw, deliberately shared, speaks volumes. It’s not an apology. It’s a quiet assurance that there’s nothing to hide. In this way, imperfection becomes a bridge—connecting people not by virtue of polish, but through the unmistakable resonance of being real.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Biases, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Likeability, Marketing, Parables, Personality, Persuasion, Psychology, Simple Living

Jeju Air Flight 2216—The Alleged Failure to Think Clearly Under Fire

July 28, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

How Situational Blindness Caused the American Airlines-Black Hawk Fatal Collision Near Reagan National Airport Yet another preliminary report from a fatal airline accident leaves crucial details unresolved and continues to fuel debate—echoing the intense scrutiny surrounding the Air India 171 crash.

In December 2024, Jeju Air Flight 2216 crash-landed at South Korea’s Muan International Airport. The Boeing 737–800 aircraft touched down without deploying its landing gear, overshot the runway at high speed, and struck a concrete structure supporting the Instrument Landing System (ILS) localizer beacon. The resulting fire claimed 179 of the 181 lives on board, marking South Korea’s deadliest aviation disaster in recent decades.

A leaked version of the initial findings indicates that both engines were hit by birds during final approach. The right engine suffered extensive damage, emitting flames and thick black smoke, while the left engine maintained sufficient thrust. Despite this, the flight crew allegedly shut down the left engine. No mechanical faults were found in the aircraft or its engines. Investigators also noted a critical data gap: both the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR) ceased functioning approximately four minutes before impact, leaving key questions about the crew’s decision-making unanswered. The preliminary report avoids definitive conclusions regarding crew actions, citing limitations in scope.

Aviation experts have expressed frustration over the absence of conclusive evidence about the crew’s decisions—particularly given the missing CVR and FDR data. Shutting down a functioning engine dramatically limits aircraft control and reduces the chance of executing a go-around or controlled landing. The report has also drawn criticism for downplaying airport infrastructure flaws. The structure the aircraft collided with was made of non-frangible material—contrary to international safety standards, which recommend breakaway designs to mitigate impact severity. If it emerges that the emergency landing was skillfully executed, the aircraft might have skidded further and come to a natural stop. A final, more comprehensive report is expected next summer.

If early findings are confirmed—especially the shutdown of the less-damaged engine—this accident may serve as another tragic example of cognitive overload under intense stress. Pilots in high-pressure situations can experience “narrowing of the cognitive map,” a phenomenon where tunnel vision compromises situational awareness and hinders sound decision-making. Inattentional blindness may also cause individuals to miss vital environmental cues—a pattern I’ve observed in numerous other aviation incidents covered on this blog.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Aviation, Biases, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Stress

What the Rise of AI Demands: Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking

July 22, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Rise of AI Demands Teaching the Thinking That Thinks About Thinking Spellcheck doesn’t create bad spellers; it lets spelling atrophy. Autocorrect and red squiggles do the work, and users stop internalizing rules. Just as GPS dulls a sense of direction, spellcheck erodes linguistic instinct. Remove the tool, and spelling falters—not from ignorance, but from disuse.

Now, AI poses a deeper threat. Its danger isn’t power; it’s passivity. Overreliance produces a generation unprepared for work that demands creativity and critical thought. Intellectual laziness already plagues classrooms, and AI only intensifies it.

To resist that drift, education must evolve. It isn’t enough to teach information—we must also teach metacognition. Students need to examine their own thinking: to ask why they believe something, how they reach conclusions, and where their reasoning fails. AI can assist, but only if used deliberately. It should provoke thought rather than replace it. By offering counterarguments and exposing blind spots, it sharpens cognition.

Idea for Impact: The real danger isn’t AI itself. It’s what we stop doing when it takes over. The spellcheck lesson still holds: unused skills don’t vanish; they decay.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Critical Thinking, Innovation, Problem Solving, Questioning, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Conscience is A Flawed Compass

July 21, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

A Reflection on Why Conscience is a Flawed Moral Compass: Example of Jefferson and Slavery Conscience isn’t as reliable a guide on moral questions as it’s often made out to be. Consider Thomas Jefferson’s advice to his impressionable 11-year-old daughter, Martha:

If ever you are about to say anything amiss or to do anything wrong, consider beforehand. You will feel something within you which will tell you it is wrong and ought not to be said or done: this is your conscience, and be sure to obey it. Our Maker has given us all this faithful internal monitor, and if you always obey it, you will always be prepared for the end of the world, or for a much more certain event, which is death.

Yet despite publicly opposing slavery, Jefferson conveniently owned enslaved people to support his lavish lifestyle and even fathered children with an enslaved woman.

This stark contradiction highlights a critical truth: even a informed and discerning conscience does not guarantee consistently virtuous action, particularly when self-interest is at stake.

And that’s the great paradox of conscience—the inherent tension between the powerful, felt imperative to obey one’s inner moral sense and its demonstrated fallibility and subjectivity and inconsistency.

Moral consistency is a myth.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Conflict, Conviction, Critical Thinking, Ethics, Integrity, Philosophy, Psychology, Virtues

Of Course Mask Mandates Didn’t ‘Work’—At Least Not for Definitive Proof

July 17, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Data Gap: Why Mask Mandate Proof Remains Unclear We will never definitively prove whether mask mandates worked during the COVID-19 pandemic—not with the crisp authority of pharmacological trials—because the circumstances themselves resisted clarity. Proper Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) would have required a moral obscenity: randomly splitting a population, enforcing strict mask-wearing protocols for one group and none for the other, then deliberately exposing both to infectious conditions.

Intentionally subjecting people to a deadly virus under strained public health systems—merely to pursue statistical precision—violates basic ethical norms. Moreover, the real world is inherently hostile to clean variables (a topic I explored when discussing why airline boarding is a mess): mask adherence fluctuates, viral variants evolve unpredictably, and public behavior veers between paranoia and apathy. Isolating the signal of mask mandates in this noise is akin to seeking symmetry in a kaleidoscope.

Perhaps the most sobering takeaway is that future efforts to evaluate sweeping health interventions will confront the same empirical turbulence and ethical dilemmas—making “absolute” answers perpetually elusive. Even much-cited studies, such as the Bangladesh mask trial, invite selective interpretation. Hopefuls and skeptics alike will highlight findings that align with their beliefs.

Yet despite all this indeterminacy, masks occupied a peculiar place in the public psyche—a signal of intent, a behavioral nudge. Their utility became less a question of virology and more one of psychology: the low cost and plausible benefit lured even the doubtful into compliance.

The broader lesson is clear: public health policy, like rhetoric, thrives not in absolutes but in persuasion, compromise, and the murky middle. And it is in that middle where humanity must weigh its choices.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Conflict, Conviction, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Persuasion, Philosophy, Social Dynamics, Thinking Tools

Optimize with Intent

June 26, 2025 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Effectiveness-Efficiency Balance: Optimizing with Purpose Cutting tennis balls in half might let you store more in a standard 3-ball tube, but the sacrifice is stark.

Effectiveness is achieving what you set out to do. Efficiency is how well you use your resources. Efficiently wrong is still wrong.

Idea for Impact: Optimize with purpose. Innovation must support your objective without undermining it.

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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