Mental Models

After Action Reviews: The Heartbeat of Every Learning Organization

June 15, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The After Action Review (AAR) is a formal group reflection process used by the military and other organizations to analyze critical decisions or moves.

At its core, the AAR seeks to answer four questions: What was planned, what actually happened, why did it happen, and how can we do better next time?

The focus isn’t on grading success or failure but on identifying weaknesses that need improvement and strengths that should be sustained. The knowledge gained from the AAR can then be shared with others who’re planning, developing, implementing, and evaluating similar efforts.

Conducted in an open and honest climate, the AAR involves candid discussions of actual performance results compared to objectives. It requires input and perspectives from all stakeholders involved in the project or activity. The goal is to ensure everybody feels part of the solution, not the problem.

AARs are a powerful tool for continuous improvement that enables organizational learning through reinforcing personal and organizational accountability and continuous assessment of performance successes and failures. They’re an excellent way to identify best practices (what should be spread) and errors (what shouldn’t be repeated.)

The wisest and smartest people and businesses can reflect ex post facto. As the saying goes, “He that will not reflect is a ruined man.”

Learning from Amazon: Getting Your House in Order

June 12, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Jeff Bezos is known for his far-sighted perspective and willingness to take bold risks that may not pay off for years. One of his most noteworthy ideas, which we can all learn from and integrate into our own mental frameworks, is the importance of streamlining processes and systems and preparing for expansion.

During the dot-com crash, Amazon’s stock price plummeted an astonishing 90%, hitting a low of just $6 per share in September 2001, down from its peak of $107 per share in December 1999. Bezos remained resolute despite the market’s instability and decreasing confidence in tech startups. Instead of losing his nerve, he doubled down on his long-term vision for the company. He saw an opportunity to reevaluate Amazon’s strategy and focus on achieving financial sustainability.

To this end, Bezos made numerous changes to Amazon’s operations, abandoning the “Get Big Fast” mentality of the startup culture in favor of a new approach focused on “Getting Our House in Order (GOHIO.)” According to Eugene Wei, who worked at Amazon as a strategy analyst from 1997 to 2004, Bezos insisted that his team concentrate on improving the company’s internal systems and processes, eschewing quick fixes or superficial solutions implemented during the company’s early, rapid growth phase. Every decision was aimed at achieving scale, discipline, and efficiency. Bezos also hired new managers to help guide the company toward financial stability.

Thanks to this strategic shift, Amazon weathered the dot-com crash and emerged as one of the most successful corporations in the world. And Bezos came to be widely regarded as one of the most brilliant and accomplished entrepreneurs of modern times.

Idea for Impact: By taking advantage of lull periods to get your affairs in order, you can set yourself up for success in the long run. Whether yearly, monthly, or even weekly, taking the time to get organized, clarify your vision, and establish efficient workflows can help you stay focused and achieve your goals more effectively. And by preparing your physical and digital spaces, mindsets, and personnel, you can create an environment that supports your aspirations and helps you reach your full potential.

Addition Through Subtraction

June 5, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Humans are obsessed with adding extra elements to attempt to solve our individual and collective problems. When companies want to change, for example, they almost always add something to the mix: a new department, new requirements, a new business strategy, or new ways of doing things.

Strangely, we’re drawn to complexity even if it’s far simpler to make things difficult and far more difficult to make things simpler. Sometimes it’s to signal that we’ve done something to build upon what was. According to Leidy Klotz’s Subtract: The Untapped Science of Less (2021,) “The problem is that it can be harder to show competence by subtracting. When we transform things from how they were to how we want them to be, we need proof—to show mates, competitors, and ourselves. … . No matter how beneficial an act of subtraction is, it’s not likely to leave as much evidence of what we’ve done.”

Simpler solutions are often harder to spot. Many great inventions made things simpler, not more complex. Besides, the most creative people thrive not by devising intricate complexities but by exploiting overlooked simplicities—splitting stuff up into its constituent parts to reinterpret, reduce, reconstitute, or even eliminate them altogether.

Idea for Impact: Addition through subtraction can be an exceptionally effective mental model in business as in life.

Actively pursue subtractive changes. Relentlessly look at everything in your work- and home-life to discover if there are simpler options and fewer “moving parts” to achieve the same goals. Subtract your priorities. Subtract obstacles to our goals. Subtract jargon and complexity from your presentations. Subtract barriers to a more engaged team. Subtract to eat better with more nutritious, less-processed foods. Subtract your software of unnecessary features. Subtract all clutter for faster, clearer decision-making.

When it comes to building more fulfilling life practices, addition through subtraction doesn’t always work, but it surely won’t work if you don’t even consider the possibility.

Life’s much easier when kept simple and streamlined.

Availability Heuristic: Our Preference for the Familiar

May 27, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that can lead people to rely on readily available information or emotionally charged and inherently interesting examples when making decisions or judgments. Essentially, individuals tend to overestimate the probability of events that are easy to recall or that they’ve personally experienced, while underestimating the likelihood of less memorable or less frequent events.

In other words, the ease of retrieval of a misleading cue may make people rely on evidence not because it is dependable but because it is memorable or striking and thus psychologically available to them. They may do so even if the evidence is not logically acceptable or does not logically support their decision.

Doctors often depend on recalling their past dramatic cases and mistakenly apply them to the current situation. People may overestimate the crime rate in their community based on news coverage, even though crime rates may be relatively low. People may dismiss the reality of climate change if they’ve recently experienced a cold winter or heard of a cold snap in a particular region, even though global warming is a long-term trend. Individuals are more likely to purchase insurance after experiencing a natural disaster than before it occurs. In each of these scenarios, the vivid and emotional evidence feels more persuasive rather than it being the most accurate or reliable information.

The availability heuristic can also shape people’s perceptions of air travel safety and lead them to believe that flying is more dangerous than it really is. Airplane accidents are often sensationalized and highly publicized by the media, making them more memorable and more prominent in people’s minds. This can cause individuals to perceive the risk of flying much higher than it actually is, leading them to avoid air travel even though it is statistically one of the safest forms of transportation. In reality, many less vivid and less memorable (i.e., psychologically unavailable) things are much more dangerous than air travel, such as falling down stairs, drowning, choking, and accidental poisoning.

Avoid falling prey to the availability heuristic and making serious misjudgments about the risks associated with different situations. Acknowledge that personal experiences and recent events may not accurately reflect the overall reality of the situation.

The Bikeshedding Fallacy: Why Trivial Matters Eclipse the Important Ones

May 26, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Parkinson’s Law of Triviality, also known as the Bikeshedding Effect, is a mental model that underscores the inclination to place undue emphasis on a simple or easily comprehensible matter while ignoring more significant ones.

The term “bikeshedding” originated from a book by C. Northcote Parkinson (who gave us Parkinson’s Law.) To illustrate the idea of bikeshedding, Parkinson evokes a situation where a cross-disciplinary committee discusses the design of a nuclear power plant. Most of the members have a limited understanding of nuclear reactor design. Consequently, they will likely rely on the experts’ opinions on these critical matters.

However, when the discussion turns to a relatively simple topic like a humble bike storage shed for employees, everyone feels the need to contribute. This is attributable to the people’s desire to be recognized as valuable contributors and showcase their competence by providing their thoughts on something everyone can understand. As a result, the committee spends a disproportionate amount of time deliberating on trivial matters like the shed’s building material or paint color while turning its back on critical issues such as how to foolproof the fuel control system.

In essence, Parkinson’s Law of Triviality highlights the human tendency to focus on easy-to-understand matters, even if they are less important, because individuals feel more confident and productive doing them.

The Streisand Effect: When Trying to Hide Only Makes it Shine

May 25, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In a famous episode of the beloved British sitcom Father Ted, the main character and his fellow priests embark on a protest against the airing of a film titled “The Passion of Saint Tibulus.” The movie portrays a Catholic saint disrespectfully, causing outrage among the Vatican and local bishops. However, despite the priests’ efforts, their parishioners do not heed to the boycott. To their dismay, media coverage of the priests’ pickets only amplifies the controversy, inadvertently making the film even more popular.

This comical scenario perfectly exemplifies the Streisand Effect, a phenomenon wherein attempts to suppress something end up drawing more attention to it.

The term “Streisand Effect” originated in 2003 when singer and actress Barbra Streisand sued a photographer for including an aerial photo of her Malibu home in a collection of images documenting coastal erosion. The lawsuit garnered significant attention to the photo, which had only been downloaded six times before the legal action. Suddenly, the photo went viral, accumulating millions of views and symbolizing the Streisand Effect.

A more recent example of this phenomenon occurred in 2017 when then-White House press secretary Sean Spicer attempted to quash a story about his meeting with reporters. Spicer had requested that the reporters keep the meeting private, hoping to prevent it from being reported. However, his efforts backfired spectacularly when the journalists went ahead and wrote about the meeting. During a press briefing, Spicer scolded the journalists for disregarding his wishes, inadvertently bringing even more attention to the original story. Had Spicer ignored the reporting, the story might have fizzled out quietly. Instead, it became a viral sensation, sparking numerous memes and jokes.

These examples serve as a powerful reminder to carefully consider the potential consequences before attempting to suppress or control information.

Mise En Place Your Life: How This Culinary Concept Can Boost Your Productivity

May 24, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

“Mise en place” may sound like a highfalutin term, but it is a French phrase that means “set in place.” In the culinary world, it refers to the practice of preparing all ingredients and equipment in advance of cooking. This means tasks such as chopping vegetables, measuring ingredients, preheating ovens, and organizing equipment are taken care of before cooking begins. The benefit of this preparation is that cooks can concentrate entirely on cooking during service, free from the need to stop and gather or prepare ingredients. Mise en place is an essential aspect of professional cooking and symbolizes a well-organized and efficient kitchen.

When it comes to exceptional cooking, chefs take their craft seriously. Mise en place isn’t just a time-saving technique; it’s a way of life. Messing with it is like kicking a hornet’s nest, as Anthony Bourdain, the culinary world’s travel documentarian, underscored in his bestselling book, Kitchen Confidential (2000): “Mise en place is the religion of all good line cooks.” Everything from their station to their tools, supplies, and backups should be arranged with military precision, and disturbing this sacred set-up is like throwing the universe off balance. Things can quickly spiral out of control, and anyone in the restaurant is advised not to mess with a line cook’s “meez” unless they want to face their wrath!

The same concept can be applied to any project or task. Pre-planning and careful preparation reduce the risk of interruptions and distractions. Take time to plan ahead, gather the necessary resources, and know your goal before starting. Keep the mundane concerns from keeping you focused on the job you’re there to do.

Think of it as a personal mise en place. Sit down and plan out what you need to succeed, including the necessary skills, resources, and people. Doing so allows you to channel your full attention to the task at hand, avoiding distractions and increasing your overall effectiveness.

Decoy Effect: The Sneaky Sales Trick That Turns Shoppers into Spenders

May 23, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Imagine yourself at the movie theater, deciding whether to buy a small popcorn for $5 or a large popcorn for $8. You’re wondering if the extra popcorn is worth the extra money, so you consider the small size. Suddenly, the cashier offers you medium popcorn for $7.50, and you buy it instead of the small one.

However, the medium popcorn is a lure—a true distraction. By introducing it, the theater has made the large popcorn seem like a better value and the small popcorn seem less attractive. This is a classic marketing strategy known as the Decoy Effect, which aims to influence your decision-making.

In essence, the Decoy Effect presents you with two options and then adds a third option designed to make one of the original options more appealing. This can sway your decision-making and lead you to choose the more expensive option.

Studies have shown that framing can influence our decisions, as a well-designed decoy can shift opinions by up to 40%. One well-known example of the decoy effect in action is from The Economist, the influential weekly international news and business publication. Behavioral economist Dan Ariely’s book Predictably Irrational (2008) describes how the magazine offered a digital subscription for $59, a print subscription for $125, and a combined print and online subscription for the same price of $125. The print-only subscription was clearly a decoy, designed to make the combined subscription seem like a better value, and it worked; the presence of the decoy significantly increased the uptake of the combined subscription.

While psychologists are still debating the exact reasons for this cognitive bias, one theory suggests that the decoy provides a straightforward justification for a decision that might otherwise seem arbitrary.

Idea for Impact: If you run a business, you too can use the decoy effect to steer consumers towards certain purchasing decisions that benefit your bottom line. By strategically adding a decoy product to your offerings, you can provide perceived value for your customers while boosting your profits.

The Longest Holdout: The Shoichi Yokoi Fallacy

May 22, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In 1972, while hunting near the Talofofo River in Guam, two cousins from the village of Talofofo were startled by rustling sounds emanating from the tall reeds. Initially, they assumed it was an animal or a hidden child, but to their surprise, they came face to face with an elderly and disheveled man clutching a shrimp trap. This unexpected encounter took aback the hunters, and after some initial confusion, they captured the man and escorted him back to their makeshift jungle home, about an hour’s walk away. The old man pleaded with the cousins to end his life.

That fugitive turned out to be Shoichi Yokoi, a Japanese soldier. During the latter stages of World War II, Yokoi served in the supply corps of the Japanese army stationed on the island of Guam. In 1944, when General Douglas MacArthur’s troops invaded and reclaimed control of the island, Yokoi retreated into the dense jungle. There, he sought refuge in an underground cave and remained hidden for 28 years, living as a determined survivor under harsh conditions.

Yokoi sustained himself by inhabiting a tunnel-like cave he had carved amidst the thick foliage, relying on a diet of nuts, fruits, shrimp, frogs, and rats. He fashioned his clothing by skillfully weaving tree bark strips and using the moon’s phases to track time. In 1952, he chanced upon a leaflet announcing the war’s end, but he and his fellow soldiers dismissed it as enemy propaganda, choosing not to surrender. Over time, all of Yokoi’s comrades perished due to starvation or illness, or were captured.

Loyalty Without a Glance Can Shroud the Mind in Ignorance

Yokoi remained firmly convinced that his fellow soldiers would eventually come to rescue him, and he clung tenaciously to this belief. Surrender was out of the question, as he later explained, “We Japanese soldiers were taught to choose death over the shame of being taken alive.” (Additionally, stragglers like him believed that returning to Japan was impossible, fearing they would be branded as deserters and face the death penalty.)

In 1972, Yokoi finally returned to Japan, where he was hailed as a national hero. Upon his arrival in Tokyo, he famously declared, “It is with much embarrassment that I have returned alive,” echoing the indoctrination he had received before the war. For the older generation, he symbolized greatness, embodying the prewar values of diligence. However, for the younger generation, he represented an awkward reminder of outdated ideals. Being captured and surviving was deemed cowardly, as the ideal soldier made the ultimate sacrifice for the divine emperor, even at the cost of his own life.

Yokoi’s remarkable story of surviving in the jungle captured the imagination of the Japanese people. The country was undergoing an industrial boom, and many were fascinated by his ability to endure on a meager diet and his resourcefulness in creating clothing from tree bark. Yokoi even returned his army-issued rifle to “the honorable emperor,” expressing his embarrassment at having returned alive rather than dying in service to the emperor. He regretted not having served his majesty to the fullest.

However, Yokoi never quite felt at home in modern society. Before his conscription in 1941, he had been an apprentice tailor, and now, he found himself overwhelmed by the changes that had occurred during his absence. He subsequently led a quiet life as a hermit, becoming a popular television personality and advocating for a simple way of life. He traveled across the country, delivering public lectures criticizing Japan’s “wasteful modern lifestyle” and championing values of thrift and self-reliance. He was deeply admired for his unwavering determination, his spirit of ganbaru (“enduring adversity without giving in,”) and his unwavering commitment to traditional values.

Embrace the Gifts That Doubt Can Bring. Let Enlightenment Take Flight.

Overall, Yokoi spent 27 years in isolation in the jungles of Guam, stubbornly holding onto his identity as a Japanese soldier long after the war had ended. In doing so, he squandered his life by adhering to ideals that held no significance for anyone else, sacrificing his relationships, career, and personal happiness to pursue the Japanese principle of ganbaru, or unwavering perseverance.

There reaches a point where virtue, taken to the extreme, can transform into a vice. Shoichi Yokoi personified this fallacy. We often admire the act of unwavering commitment, but we tend to lose sight of the underlying reasons behind it due to the blinding effects of rigid adherence.

Beware of blind devotion to any ideology that promotes rigid and restrictive beliefs. Do not overestimate the value of your morals beyond their practical utility, and be receptive to changing your perspective when circumstances demand it. This requires reevaluating your priorities and recognizing that what you once cherished may no longer align with your desires or aspirations. When faced with new information or situations, consider the possibility of altering your stance. There is a difference between sticking to your principles and being imprudent.

Don’t Outsource a Strategic Component of Your Business

May 11, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The prescription eyeglasses retailer Warby Parker was launched by four drinking buddies at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The founders intended to disrupt a high-profit margin industry by taking out the intermediary.

Selling prescription eyeglasses online (Warby Parker mostly sells via brick-and-mortar today) would also defy skeptics who preferred to see certain things—shoes, diamond rings, cars—in person and were disinclined to get them online. Warby Parker’s incumbent competitors, 39DollarGlasses.com and EyeBuyDirect.com, had sloppy websites. A crucial part of Warby Parker’s startup plan was to start a user-friendly website where shoppers could upload a photograph of themselves and try on glasses virtually.

At first, the founders outsourced the website, resulting in disastrous consequences. In an interview with Fortune magazine (1-Jun-2019,) co-founder & co-CEO David Gilboa reflected on the pitfalls of outsourcing critical business components:

None of us [the founders] was qualified to build the website, so we solicited proposals and got a handful of bids from agencies. We chose the cheapest option, but a few months in, we realized it was a mistake. Their execution wasn’t what they promised. So we ended up firing them.

Now we develop most of the technology we use in-house to ensure we maintain as much control over the customer experience as possible. We’ve developed our website and both of our apps internally.

Idea for Impact: Don’t outsource what you’re supposed to do best.

Outsourcing a core function may give you a short-term uplift, but you’ll fail to create the core expertise within your company. That’s necessary to build a sustainable competitive advantage. The vendor just isn’t as invested in your success.

Building know-how internally is more challenging, but it’ll pay off in the long run. Sure, you may need to tap an outsourced hire for specialized expertise that you lack. But concentrate on developing your core functions in-house. In fact, be as micro-managey as possible in the early days.

Leverage outside help for bookkeeping, legal, and everything else that doesn’t generate a competitive advantage.

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Mental Models

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Idea for Impact: Addition through subtraction can be an exceptionally effective mental model in business as in life.

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Loyalty Without a Glance Can Shroud the Mind in Ignorance

Embrace the Gifts That Doubt Can Bring. Let Enlightenment Take Flight.

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Idea for Impact: Don’t outsource what you’re supposed to do best.

Wondering what to read next?