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Empower Your Problem-Solving with the Initial Hypothesis Method

April 8, 2024 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Empower Your Problem-Solving with the Initial Hypothesis Method McKinsey, the renowned management consultancy firm, is celebrated for its rigorous problem-solving methodology, famously known as the ‘McKinsey Way.’ This structured approach is centered on the concept of the Initial Hypothesis. When confronted with complex business challenges, McKinsey consultants embark on a process that begins with formulating an educated guess about the underlying issues or opportunities. This initial hypothesis isn’t mere speculation; it’s firmly rooted in preliminary research, data analysis, and market trends.

McKinsey’s Hypothesis-Driven Approach to Problem Solving

'The McKinsey Way' by Ethan Rasiel (ISBN 0070534489) Leveraging their deep industry expertise, McKinsey consultants draw upon their knowledge of similar situations to craft this initial hypothesis. It serves as the foundation for further investigation, offering a structured framework for problem-solving and acting as a testable proposition. As consultants delve deeper into the problem, they continuously assess and refine their hypothesis based on emerging insights and evidence.

Through this iterative process, McKinsey teams unearth hidden patterns, pinpoint root causes, and develop more robust recommendations for their clients. By grounding decision-making in sound reasoning and data-driven insights, McKinsey ensures that their solutions are not only effective but also thoroughly vetted and validated.

Get Grounded in Evidence, Navigate Problems with Structure

'The McKinsey Mind' by Ethan Rasiel (ISBN 0071374299) The McKinsey Initial Hypothesis method emphasizes clarity, evidence, collaboration, flexibility, and continuous improvement in problem-solving endeavors—starting with an initial hypothesis can significantly benefit your approach to complex problems, catalyzing data collection and detailed examination. By rigorously validating or invalidating your initial hypothesis and adjusting it accordingly, you’ll gain a deeper understanding of the problem, along with a clearer grasp of associated risks and opportunities.

Be aware of the limitations of the initial hypothesis approach, though. It may be influenced by preconceived notions or existing solutions, limiting creativity and exploration. In such cases, adopt a more exploratory approach to fully uncover and address the complexities of the problem at hand, especially when innovative solutions and fresh perspectives are required.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Effective Communication, Leading Teams, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Mental Models, Presentations, Problem Solving, Social Dynamics, Thinking Tools

How Toyota Thrives on Imperfection

March 25, 2024 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Toyota's Reflection Ritual: Perfecting Success with 'Hansei' The Japanese seamlessly blend their way of life with business, offering valuable lessons for the rest of us. Central to their culture is “Hansei“—deep self-reflection to acknowledge mistakes and plan prevention strategies. Hansei is practiced ad infinitum and consistently. It’s vital for personal and professional growth, both individually and collectively.

Toyota exemplifies this approach. Even after success, every team holds reflective “Hansei-Kai” meetings, akin to After Action Reviews (AARs.) The notion of everything being flawless is actively discouraged; instead, the culture stresses that “no problem is a problem.” If the team fails to identify any issues, it suggests they didn’t exert enough effort to meet expectations (highlighting areas for improvement,) lacked critical or objective analysis, or perhaps needs to cultivate more humility.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Leading Teams, Mental Models, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Innovation, Japan, Leadership, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Quality, Toyota

Innovation Without Borders: Shatter the ‘Not Invented Here’ Mindset

March 11, 2024 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Jack Welch's Solution to Innovation: Breaking Down 'Not Invented Here' Barriers at GE

Jack Welch’s leadership during his tenure at General Electric (GE) has faced fair criticism, particularly for his overemphasis on financial engineering and short-term shareholder value over long-term investments in research and development. This scrutiny has intensified in recent years, especially following the challenges seen in other companies like Boeing, evidenced by the issues with its 737 MAX product line. However, amidst these concerns, some aspects of Welch’s management playbook remain worthy of emulation by other managers.

From Closed Doors to Open Minds: Jack Welch’s Approach to ‘Not Invented Here’ at GE

Upon assuming the role of CEO in 1981, Jack Welch wasted no time in addressing deep-rooted cultural issues within GE. Drawing from his intimate understanding of GE’s internal dynamics and bureaucratic hurdles, Welch was determined to transform the company into an environment where meritocracy and innovation thrived, regardless of the source of ideas.

'Jack-Straight from the Gut' by Jack Welch (ISBN 0446690686) One significant obstacle was the pervasive “Not Invented Here” (NIH) syndrome, wherein GE teams believed that good ideas could come only from within. Across GE, managers disregarded external ideas, even from other divisions within the company, stifling innovation and teamwork.

To counteract this mindset, Welch advocated for a culture that welcomed external ideas. He formed teams tasked with studying successful strategies employed by companies like Ford, Dell, and HP, and sought input from leaders at other notable firms such as AlliedSignal and Cisco. One famous instance of this approach was Welch’s adoption of Six Sigma, a quality management technique developed by Motorola, which he seamlessly incorporated into GE’s practices.

Beyond Boundaries: Winning with External Ideas

Welch cultivated an environment at GE where employees were urged to observe and glean insights from competitors, fostering a culture of continual improvement and adaptability. He placed special importance on simplifying processes and making decisions swiftly.

Idea for Impact: Innovation isn’t about being a trendsetter just for the sake of it. Instead, embrace the idea of being a proud copycat! Swipe those great ideas from the top players in the game and don’t forget to give credit where it’s due. After all, success often comes from embracing the brilliance of others.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Leadership, Leading Teams, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Creativity, Critical Thinking, General Electric, Icons, Jack Welch, Leadership Lessons, Mental Models, Thinking Tools

Pitch Problems, Not Ideas

January 4, 2024 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Many teams impede innovation because they center innovation on ideas and not problems.

Ideas make people rush to solutions—problems make people identify with them and commiserate. Ideas are easier to kill; problems aren’t.

When you anchor a proposal in a truly great problem, you’ll find that colleagues are more likely to build on it rather than attempt to destroy it. Problems promote listening and building reciprocal trust.

Idea for Impact: Innovation should be centered on problems, not ideas.

Encourage everyone to pitch problems, not firm proposals.

Sell the problem, and you’ll get less resistance.

As I’ve mentioned previously, the best marketing minds work on creating a customer—previously unaware of a problem, the customer becomes interested in considering the opportunity and finally acts upon it.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Innovation, Persuasion, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools

When Bean Counters Turn Risk Managers: Lessons from the Ford Pinto Scandal

December 4, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

When Bean Counters Turn Risk Managers: Lessons from the Ford Pinto Scandal During the 1970s, the Ford Pinto scandal became a notorious and impactful episode within the automotive industry. This scandal revolved around significant safety concerns and ethical dilemmas associated with the Ford Pinto, a subcompact car. At the center of this controversy was the Pinto’s design flaw, which rendered it susceptible to fuel tank fires in the event of rear-end collisions.

The Pinto’s fuel tank was located in a highly vulnerable spot just behind the rear axle. This design flaw meant that, in the unfortunate event of a rear-end collision, the fuel tank could rupture, resulting in fuel leakage and, tragically, sometimes even fatal fires. Concerns regarding the safety of the Pinto were raised both internally within Ford and externally by safety advocates and engineers.

After at least fifty-nine lives had been lost, the scandal escalated dramatically when it came to light that Ford had conducted an internal cost-benefit analysis, which demonstrated that rectifying the design flaw and enhancing the Pinto’s safety would be more expensive than potentially settling legal claims for injuries and fatalities stemming from accidents. Ford had, with unwavering determination and, at times, dubious tactics, lobbied against a crucial safety standard that would have compelled them to address the risk and redesign the Pinto’s fire-prone gas tank.

This episode served as a stark lesson for the nation in the principles of cost-benefit analysis. The cost of implementing rubber liners to fix the problem was estimated at $137 million, while a meticulous calculation of the all costs associated with those who suffered and perished only amounted to $49.5 million.

Overall, society has made significant progress since the Ford Pinto scandal. Across various industries, from construction to healthcare, aviation to retail, automotive to hospitality, the principle of “safety first” is not merely a hollow industry slogan. Projects and endeavors now prioritize the well-being and protection of individuals, employees, and the general public.

While some may resent our increasingly litigious society and the abundance of frivolous lawsuits that burden the legal system and public resources, it is important to acknowledge that this litigious nature has played a crucial role in holding companies and regulators accountable.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models Tagged With: Conflict, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Goals, Mental Models, Persuasion, Risk, Thinking Tools

You Never Know What’ll Spark Your Imagination (and When)

August 31, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Children find all sorts of unexpected ways to nurture their imagination. With uninhibited curiosity and creativity for fantasy, they can create and connect concepts without inner judgment. What children discover with their active imagination often molds how they see the world and fuels their dreams, as the following cases will illuminate.

Albert Einstein (1879–1955) hardly spoke until he was three. His delayed verbal development made him curious about ordinary things that most grown-ups take for granted—such as the nature of space and time. When he was five and sick in bed, Einstein’s father brought him a contraption that stirred his mind no end. It was the first time he had seen a magnetic compass. Laying in bed, Einstein tried waving and turning the little gadget in vain to trick it into pointing off in a new direction. He later wrote, “A wonder … this experience made a deep and lasting impression upon me. Something deeply hidden had to be behind things.”

Bertrand Russell (1872–1970) was born into a notable aristocratic family. His parents were progressive thinkers and atheists. They chose philosopher John Stuart Mill as Russell’s secular godfather. When Russell’s parents died when he was four, they designated in their will that their progressive friends should look after young Russell and bring him up as an agnostic. But his grandparents intervened, abandoned the parents’ stipulation, and raised Russell and his brother Frank in a strict Christian household. As an adolescent, Russell kept a diary expressing his misgivings about God and concepts of free will. He kept his diary in Greek letters so that his grandparents couldn’t read it. When he went to Cambridge, he bumped into many people who thought the way he did. He actively engaged in debates and discussions. When Russell was eleven, Frank introduced him to the work of Euclid, which Russell described in his autobiography as “one of the great events of my life, as dazzling as first love. I had not imagined there was anything so delicious in the world. From that moment until I was thirty-eight, mathematics was my chief interest and my chief source of happiness.” Russell became the 20th century’s most important agnostic, philosopher, and mathematician.

Ansel Adams (1902–84) had a difficult time in school. An unruly boy, he was hyperactive and dyslexic. He was ousted from several schools. He later wrote, “Education without either meaning or excitement is impossible. I longed for the outdoors, leaving only a small part of my conscious self to pay attention to schoolwork.” His parents eventually gave up and began homeschooling him. When he was 14, they gave him two gifts: a Kodak #1 Box Brownie camera and a trip to Yosemite National Park (the National Parks Service had just been established.) On that family trip, Adams was so captivated by the charm of the mountains and the woods that he would revisit the park every summer for the rest of his life. Adams began experimenting with cameras, solidifying a lifelong connection between his two passions—photography and the natural world. He set the gold standard for art photography in the 20th century. His extraordinary photographs of Yosemite and other wilderness areas became familiar to millions worldwide.

Idea for Impact: You never knew what would spark the imagination. Build your creative muscle. Emphasize effort over the results of creative endeavors and enjoy new experiences. Play. Wander. Rebel. Experiment. Challenge. Indulge. Question. Absorb.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Artists, Creativity, Mental Models, Problem Solving, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

From the Inside Out: How Empowering Your Employees Builds Customer Loyalty

August 7, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

At a time when apathy and distrust are so endemic in many organizations, some companies have nurtured employee loyalty to create customer loyalty flourish. The following case studies will substantiate the cultivation of a positive work environment that prioritizes employee recognition and support invariably results in exceptional customer service.

The Nordstrom Way: Enabling Employees to Have the Freedom and Vision to Become Self-Directing

Nordstrom’s founders created a culture that prioritized a “worshipful relationship” with its luxury department store customers and empowered employees to do everything they could to please them. The Nordstrom Handbook emphasizes outstanding customer service and encourages employees to set high personal and professional goals, expressing confidence in their abilities. The company’s Rule 1 reads: “Use good judgment in all situations. There will be no additional rules. Please feel free to ask your department manager, store manager, or division manager any question at any time.” Nordstrom’s success is a testament to empowering employees and supporting policies prioritizing exceptional customer service.

Flying the Fun Skies at Southwest Airlines: Giving Employees the Freedom to Deliver a Great Brand Experience

Southwest Airlines achieved great success early on due to its committed and motivated workforce. Founder Herb Kelleher recognized the importance of prioritizing employee satisfaction to create a culture of caring for one another and providing excellent customer service. Kelleher famously said, “The business of business is people—yesterday, today, and forever. If the employees aren’t satisfied, they won’t provide the product we need.”

To create a positive work environment, Southwest Airlines encouraged fun among its employees, setting it apart from other airlines that were considered dull and unappealing. Celebrating employees and their families is deeply ingrained in Southwest Airlines’ culture, and it is evident in the prominent display of pictures capturing these special moments throughout their office spaces. This people-centric culture helped the company attract and retain talented workers passionate about their jobs and provide top-notch customer service, which made flying with the airline a fun experience. Despite the potential cost savings, Kelleher remained committed to celebrating employees with parties, banquets, gifts, birthday cards, and outings, citing the value of having the fewest customer complaints in the industry.

Beyond the Call of Duty: Ladies and Gentlemen Serving Ladies and Gentlemen at Ritz-Carlton

The Ritz Carlton is renowned for its exceptional customer service, with the empowerment of employees being a critical factor in their approach. The company’s philosophy of “Ladies and Gentlemen Taking Care of Ladies and Gentlemen” highlights the importance of treating customers and employees with respect and dignity. Regardless of their rank and title, employees can spend up to $2,000 per day per guest without seeking supervisor approval to solve problems and deliver personalized and unforgettable guest experiences. This approach may seem costly, but it empowers employees to use their judgment to create memorable and personal experiences for guests. One of my friends enjoyed staying at a Ritz-Carlton hotel a few months ago, where he ordered a burger and a milkshake. Unfortunately, the hotel did not offer milkshakes, so he settled for a glass of water. However, to his amazement, the waitress surprised him with a milkshake to accompany his burger. She went the extra mile without being prompted by scouring the kitchen for milk, ice cream, and cold milk to create the shake.

Idea for Impact: Empowering Employees is a Strategic Approach That Yields Significant Benefits

Empowering employees goes beyond providing the necessary tools and training; it fosters a culture of trust, autonomy, and ownership.

How you treat your employees directly impacts how they treat your customers. When you prioritize making your staff feel appreciated and supported, they are more likely to provide exceptional customer service. A positive work environment can foster innovation and creativity within your organization while attracting and retaining top talent.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Leading Teams, Managing People, MBA in a Nutshell Tagged With: Coaching, Customer Service, Employee Development, Great Manager, Human Resources, Motivation, Performance Management, Persuasion

The Emotional Edge: Elevating Your Marketing Messaging

July 20, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The Emotional Edge: Elevating Your Marketing Messaging

Messaging isn’t only about the product.

It isn’t solely about the problem.

It isn’t even just about the consequences of not solving that problem.

It’s about the emotional pain that you alleviate.

Good marketers highlight the benefits, value, or solutions that their product or service can offer. The best marketers often leverage emotional triggers to establish a deeper connection with consumers.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Creativity, Innovation, Marketing, Parables, Persuasion, Problem Solving

The Enron Scandal: A Lesson on Motivated Blindness

July 19, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The fallout from the Enron fiasco had far-reaching effects on the economy and the public’s trust in corporations. It serves as a powerful lesson in the dangers of motivated blindness—when individuals have a personal stake in unethical actions, they often look the other way or find ways to rationalize their behavior.

The folks at Arthur Andersen, serving as Enron’s external auditor, found themselves in a precarious situation. On the one hand, they were supposed to ensure financial integrity, but on the other hand, they acted as consultants, aiding Enron in manipulating financial transactions to deceive investors and manipulate earnings. Enron generously poured hefty fees their way, with auditing fees exceeding $25 million and consulting fees reaching $27 million in 2001. So, why would they want to put an end to this lucrative gravy train? To complicate matters further, many auditors from Andersen were eagerly vying for coveted positions at Enron, just like their fortunate colleagues.

To combat motivated blindness, it’s crucial to reflect on our biases, hold ourselves accountable, and actively seek out diverse perspectives to gain a broader understanding of any given issue. Max Bazerman, a professor at Harvard Business School and author of The Power of Noticing: What the Best Leaders See (2014,) asserts that individuals can overcome their inclination to overlook vital clues by fostering a “noticing mindset.” This involves consistently asking oneself and others, both within and outside the organization, the question: “Which critical threats and challenges might we be neglecting?”

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Leadership, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Discipline, Ethics, Getting Along, Integrity, Leadership, Motivation, Psychology, Risk

Under Pressure, The Narrowing Cognitive Map: Lessons from the Tragedy of Singapore Airlines Flight 6

July 10, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Picture this: You’re parking your car when, suddenly, you catch sight of the bus you desperately need to catch pulling into the station. Acting on instinct, you swiftly navigate your car into a vacant spot, deftly gather your bags, and launch yourself towards the bus stop, driven by an unwavering determination to evade a tedious fifteen-minute wait for the next one. In the whirlwind of your frantic sprint, you absentmindedly and hastily tuck your cherished cell phone into your back pocket, oblivious that it slips out during the adrenaline-fueled pursuit of catching the bus. It’s only after another five minutes that you become aware of your cell phone’s absence, and the weight of its loss gradually descends upon you.

Isn’t it fascinating how our minds tend to close off under time pressure? This fascinating cognitive phenomenon is known as the “narrowing of the cognitive map.” It’s as if our attention becomes laser-focused, but unfortunately, that can lead us to make unfortunate errors in judgment.

When we find ourselves in the clutches of tunnel vision, our thinking becomes constrained, and we unknowingly fall into the trap of limited perspective. Not only do we become so fixated on a specific course of action that we overlook crucial details in our environment, but we also become oblivious to the subtle signals whispering, “Something’s amiss.”

Inattentional blindness, indeed. It’s a common problem in high-stress situations, and it can have serious consequences, as in the following case study of the Singapore Airlines Flight 6 crash.

Speed Stress Causes Serious Breakdowns in the Reliability of Judgment

Flight 6’s tragic case accident occurred on October 31, 2000, at Taipei’s Chiang Kai-shek International Airport. Various factors contributed to the crash, including severe weather conditions, limited visibility, inadequate airport markings, and insufficient actions taken by both the pilots and air traffic controllers.

During a scheduled stop in Taipei on its journey from Singapore to Los Angeles, Flight 6’s flight crew became aware of an approaching storm. They realized that if they delayed the takeoff, they would have to wait for the storm to pass, resulting in a lengthy 12-hour delay. This interruption would have entailed making overnight arrangements for the passengers, disrupting the crew’s schedule, and potentially impacting future flight schedules involving the aircraft and company personnel. Consequently, the crew made the decision to expedite the departure and take off before the typhoon made landfall on the island.

The Rushed Pilots Missed Clues That They Were Taking Off on a Closed Runway

Under immense time pressure, the flight crew became singularly focused on expediting their takeoff in rainy and windy conditions before the weather conditions deteriorated further. Despite being instructed to taxi to Runway 05 Left, they deviated from the assigned route and instead positioned themselves on Runway 05 Right, which was closed for takeoff due to ongoing pavement repairs.

Complicating matters, a section of Runway 05 Right was still being used as a taxiway during the construction period. The signage at the entrance of the runway did not adequately indicate the presence of a stop sign and construction equipment along the converted taxiway.

Moreover, the local air traffic controller failed to provide progressive taxi or ground movement instructions, which would have been appropriate considering the low visibility during the taxi. However, due to the crew’s heightened sense of urgency, they neglected to request step-by-step instructions for their taxi route.

Misleading Airport Markings Contributed to Pilots’ Mistaken Belief of Correct Runway Selection

In the midst of low visibility and feeling rushed, the pilots neglected crucial resources that could have guided them to the correct runway, such as runway and taxiway charts, signage, markings, and cockpit instruments. This lapse in judgment resulted in a loss of situational awareness, leading them to initiate takeoff from a runway closed for construction.

The Harsh Reality of Rushing: Examining the Aftermath of Singapore Airlines Flight 6's Closed Runway Mishap Approximately 3,300 feet down the runway, around 11:17 PM that night, the Boeing 747 collided with concrete barriers and construction equipment, resulting in the aircraft breaking apart and bursting into flames.

Tragically, 83 out of the 179 people on board lost their lives.

The crew’s loss of awareness was further compounded by the airport’s negligence in terms of maintenance and safety precautions. By failing to place mandatory construction warnings at the entrance of Runway 05 Right, they disregarded the potential risk of aircraft mistakenly attempting to take off from a partially closed runway.

The air traffic controllers also neglected to verify the aircraft’s position before granting takeoff clearances, despite the aircraft having turned onto Runway 05 Right. The airport lacked the necessary Airport Surface Detection Equipment, which could have been crucial in detecting and mitigating risks, especially given the heavy precipitation that could have hampered radar presentation at the time. In their defense, the pilots had assumed that the air traffic controllers could visually observe the aircraft, and the fact that takeoff clearance was issued just as the aircraft turned onto the taxiway gave them the impression that everything was in order.

Anxiety Leads to Attentional Tunneling and Narrowed Field of Focus

The tragedy of Singapore Airlines Flight 6 serves as a poignant case study highlighting the dangers of tunnel vision and its ability to hinder our perspective and decision-making.

Often, seemingly minor errors, when combined with time constraints and cognitive biases, can intertwine and escalate, leading to catastrophic outcomes. Even in a highly advanced cockpit and a complex system with numerous safeguards, a chain of minor errors can transform it into a deadly trap.

The human brain is naturally inclined to seek confirmation and convince itself that it completely understands the situation at hand. When faced with contradictory information, we tend to ignore it and focus solely on our preconceived notions. Furthermore, anxiety further impairs our ability to perceive the entire situation, leaving us prone to impulsive actions rather than rational responses.

It is vital to be aware of the perils of tunnel vision. It can close our eyes to the broader context and limit our capacity to consider peripheral information. This narrowed perception can have severe consequences, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a broader perspective in decision-making.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Effective Communication, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Aviation, Biases, Conflict, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Problem Solving, Risk, Stress, Worry

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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