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Nagesh Belludi

Best/Worst Analysis: A Mental Model for Risk Aversion

August 2, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Dr. Ben Carson, who was part of the Trump Cabinet, established his reputation as a groundbreaking neurosurgeon in the Johns Hopkins medical system. In Take the Risk: Learning to Identify, Choose, and Live with Acceptable Risk (2009,) Carson reflects on fear, hesitation, and facing the risks he took for himself and his patients:

You don’t go into a field that requires cracking people’s heads open or operating on something as delicate as the spinal cord unless you are comfortable with taking risks.

Every day I make critical, split-second decisions that affect the longevity and the quality of other people’s lives. Taking such risks gives me pause. It forces me to think about my own life and the risks I face. Those experiences enable me to move forward and avoid becoming paralyzed by fear. As a result, I probably do a lot of things that more cautious people would never attempt.

Next time you’re fretting over how to proceed in a dicey situation, Carson suggests using a mental model he calls the ‘Best/Worst Risk Analysis.’

Putting on the optimist/pessimist hats and imagining the best-case/worst-case scenarios, ask yourself these questions:

  • What’s the best thing that can happen if I do it?
  • What’s the worst thing that can happen if I do it?
  • What’s the best thing that can happen if I don’t do it?
  • What’s the worst that can happen if I don’t do it?

It’s a variation of Ben Franklin’s humble “pro et contra” (“for and against”) system for decision-making.

Research has shown that this Best/Worst Risk Analysis mental model promotes shared decision-making. In the surgical environment, it helps surgeons organize challenging treatment dialogs to support patients and their families. This mental model helps surgeons communicate by turning the refocus of decision-making conversations from a surgical problem’s uncertainties to discussing treatment alternatives and potential outcomes.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Decision-Making, Mindfulness, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom, Worry

Inspirational Quotations #904

August 1, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi

One individual may die for an idea, but that idea will, after his death, incarnate itself in a thousand lives.
—Subhas Chandra Bose (Indian Nationalist Leader)

It’s true that heroes are inspiring, but mustn’t they also do some rescuing if they are to be worthy of their name? Would Wonder Woman matter if she only sent commiserating telegrams to the distressed?
—Jeanette Winterson (English Novelist)

Calmness is the cradle of power.
—Josiah Gilbert Holland (American Editor, Novelist)

Boredom is like a pitiless zooming in on the epidermis of time. Every instant is dilated and magnified like the pores of the face.
—Jean Baudrillard (French Sociologist, Philosopher)

Tradition wears a snowy beard.
—John Greenleaf Whittier (American Poet, Abolitionist)

This world is so full of care and sorrow that it is a gracious debt we owe to one another to discover the bright crystals of delight hidden in somber circumstances and irksome tasks.
—Helen Keller (American Author)

One of the hardest things in life is having words in your heart that you can’t utter.
—James Earl Jones (American Actor)

Plurality should not be assumed without necessity.
—William of Ockham (English Philosopher, Polemicist)

Seek on earth what you have found in heaven.
—George William Russell (Irish Author)

There is neither happiness nor misery in the world; there is only the comparison of one state with another, nothing more. He who has felt the deepest grief is best able to experience supreme happiness. We must have felt what it is to die, that we may appreciate the enjoyments of life.
—Alexandre Dumas pere (French Novelist, Playwright)

In the best of times, our days are numbered anyway. So it would be a crime against nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were designed in the first place: the opportunity to do good work, to enjoy friends, to fall in love, to hit a ball, and to bounce a baby.
—Alistair Cooke (British-American Journalist)

Everything that looks to the future elevates human nature; for life is never so low or so little as when occupied with the present.
—Letitia Elizabeth Landon (English Poet, Novelist)

A writer never reads his work. For him, it is the unreadable, a secret, and he cannot remain face to face with it. A secret, because he is separated from it.
—Maurice Blanchot (French Novelist, Critic)

There cannot be a more glorious object in creation than a human being replete with benevolence, meditating in what manner he may render himself most acceptable to the Creator by doing good to his creatures.
—Henry Fielding (English Novelist)

Filed Under: Inspirational Quotations

How to Stop a Worry Spiral

July 29, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

If you tend to worry a lot—about your weight or money, what others think of you, going to a job you dislike, your life path,—you can use a simple trick proposed by the self-help author Shannon Kaiser.

In Joy Seeker (2019,) Kaiser suggests turning “what if” statements into “I wonder” statements. This reframing exercise helps quiet down your anxiety-filled thoughts and refocuses your mind on the best possible scenario rather than the worst:

Worry: What if I fail and it doesn’t work out?
Wonder: What if things go better than planned, and I am happier than I ever thought I could be?

Worry: What if people don’t understand or approve of what I do?
Wonder: What if people love it and my idea is well received?

Worry: What if I am rejected?
Wonder: What if I am accepted? My life will change for the better.

When you are too consumed with fear, your vision narrows, and your mind homes in on the threats you’re facing at the moment. You can’t focus on what you want. You can’t see the truth of the situation. Choosing wonder over worry helps you tap into the possibilities instead of getting sucked in by the limitations.

Idea for Impact: Approaching uncertainty with curiosity can help you fight hopelessness. Rather than admitting a terrible outcome as a foregone conclusion, you become open to possibility. You avoid sliding down into a pit of dread and despair. You’re far more likely to come up with effective ways for coping with the situation in question.

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  4. The Law of Petty Irritations
  5. How to … Silence Your Inner Critic with Gentle Self-Compassion

Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Emotions, Introspection, Mindfulness, Suffering, Worry

Niksen: The Dutch Art of Embracing Stillness, Doing Nothing

July 26, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

Niksen - Dutch Technique of Doing Nothing, Just Being The Dutch have a practice they call Niksen, derived from “niks doen,” which literally means “nothing-ing.” It involves purposefully engaging in doing absolutely nothing, embracing a state of aimlessness.

Think of it as a sanctioned daydreaming session.

Niksen entails gazing out the window and allowing your mind to wander wherever it pleases. Unlike mindfulness meditation, where you observe your thoughts or focus on your breath, Niksen is about simply existing. Just being there. There’s no effort to return to the present moment or to analyze your thoughts.

In Niksen, you’re just being. You take a pause, practice stillness, and let your gaze drift to the horizon. It’s about being wherever you are, whether sitting or standing, without any deliberate action. When thoughts arise, you let them pass without scrutiny, allowing them to come and go naturally.

As a stress-relief technique, Niksen is gaining popularity. Embracing idleness means disconnecting from the constant buzz of connectivity and the pressure of stress, anxiety, and depression. Studies show that allowing your mind to wander activates different parts of the brain, maybe even tapping into some hidden wisdom.

Give Niksen a shot, even if it’s just for a minute or two every now and then. It can provide a much-needed break during moments of tension and worry. These brief escapes can add richness and intrigue to your life, expanding your horizons beyond the everyday.

Wondering what to read next?

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Filed Under: Health and Well-being, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Anxiety, Balance, Mindfulness, Stress, Time Management, Worry

Inspirational Quotations #903

July 25, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi

There are no old people nowadays; they are either ‘wonderful for their age’ or dead.
—Mary Pettibone Poole (American Aphorist)

So that ends my first experience of matrimony, which I always thought a highly over-rated performance.
—Isadora Duncan (American Dancer)

He who has known how to love the land has loved eternity.
—Stefan Zeromski (Polish Novelist)

Let us be careful to distinguish modesty, which is ever amiable, from reserve, which is only prudent. A man is hated sometimes for pride, when it was an excess of humility gave the occasion.
—William Shenstone (English Poet)

The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression.
—W. E. B. Du Bois (American Sociologist, Activist)

Dharma is not upheld by talking about it. Dharma is upheld by living in harmony with it.
—Buddhist Teaching

The conductor must make it possible to eliminate himself in the music. If the orchestra feels him doing that, then everything will go well.
—Giuseppe Sinopoli (Italian Conductor, Composer)

Think you are weak, think you lack what it takes, think you will lose, think you are second class—think this way and you are doomed to mediocrity.
—David J. Schwartz (American Self-help Author)

The composer does not sit around and wait for an inspiration to walk up and introduce itself… Making music is actually little else than a matter of invention aided and abetted by emotion. In composing we combine what we know of music with what we feel.
—George Gershwin (American Composer)

There’s small Revenge in Words, but Words may be greatly revenged.
—Benjamin Franklin (American Founding Father, Inventor)

The entire global business community is learning to learn together, becoming a learning community.
—Peter Senge (American Management Consultant)

The older I grow the more earnestly I feel that the few joys of childhood are the best that life has to give.
—Ellen Glasgow (American Novelist)

Gratitude—the meanest and most sniveling attribute in the world.
—Dorothy Parker (American Humorist, Journalist)

Pray not for lighter burdens, but for stronger backs.
—Theodore Roosevelt (American Head of State)

Never dig up in unbelief what you have sown in faith.
—James Gordon Lindsay (American Pentecostal Pastor)

O grant me, Heaven, a middle state,
Neither too humble nor too great;
More than enough, for nature’s ends,
With something left to treat my friends.
—David Mallet (Scottish Poet, Dramatist)

Sentimentality—that’s what we call the sentiment we don’t share.
—Graham Greene (British Novelist)

There is a wide difference between speaking to deceive, and being silent to be impenetrable.
—Voltaire (French Philosopher, Author)

Filed Under: Inspirational Quotations

Half-Size Your Goals

July 24, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

At the start of the year, if you’re like most people, you selected a bunch of lofty, impossible goals. Now, halfway through the year, you feel disappointed and let down with yourself. In fact, the longer your goals list, the more overwhelmed and off-track you’ve got.

As part of your mid-year review, reflect on the first six months of the year and adjust your goals for the rest of the year. Revisit your goals, assess your progress, evaluate your approach, and change your timeline. Break big ambitious goals down into more manageable decisions and improve the odds of achieving the type of outcome you desire.

Try half-sized goals. If you’re struggling to attain a goal that seems to be too challenging, set a less difficult version of the goal.

If you’re not getting good results, then you go back and tweak what you’re doing. Don’t feel the need to change everything in your life at once.

Wondering what to read next?

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Filed Under: Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Balance, Change Management, Discipline, Getting Things Done, Goals, Procrastination, Targets

More Data Isn’t Always Better

July 23, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The hype around so-called ‘big data’ seems to have convinced many that unless the data and analytics are ‘big,’ they won’t have a big impact.

In reality, though, your organization can generate tons of value from the prudent use of smallish data.

Furthermore, you just don’t need big data tools such as Hadoop to solve every data analytics challenge you’ll face. In many cases, humble Microsoft Excel is all you’ll want.

More Data Isn't Always Better - Big Data. Often the missing gap isn’t in big data technologies but in data science skills. The rapid rise in your ability to collect data needs to be seconded by your ability to support, manage, filter, and interpret the data.

Idea for Impact: With data, more isn’t necessarily better. Small data can still have a significant impact. Rather than collecting data for the sake of it, identify why you need data and then go get the most meaningful data that can answer the questions you have.

Focus not on whether the data is small or big but on the problem you’re trying to solve.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Problem Solving, Risk, Thinking Tools, Wisdom

Silence is Consent

July 22, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Qui tacet consentire videtur, ubi loqui debuit ac potuit. (He who is silent, when he ought to have spoken and was able to, is taken to agree.)
—Latin Proverb

If you don’t speak up at a meeting or ask for a deferral of a decision, you can’t come back later and declare, “I really hated that decision. I don’t want it to happen.”

Make sure to speak your mind when you disagree with something because, for many people, silence indicates consent.

Go to the meeting. Challenge the proposal. Stand up and be counted. Let your feelings be heard. Chip in on the debate. Commit to how the decision will be made.

Idea for Impact: Silence, especially when a new, perhaps contentious proposal, is being discussed, indicates a lack of engagement within the team. People who care speak out in a healthy team environment.

Wondering what to read next?

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Filed Under: Effective Communication Tagged With: Conversations, Meetings, Social Dynamics, Social Skills, Teams

Change Must Come from Within

July 21, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

If you want to become the type of person who wants to change, you must become the type of person who embodies that change repeatedly. You must deliberately weave the change into your sense of identity. Seth Godin notes in The Practice (2020,)

If you want to get in shape, it’s not difficult. Spend an hour a day running or at the gym. Do that for six months or a year. Done.

That’s not the difficult part.

The difficult part is becoming the kind of person who goes to the gym every day.

When you use your actions to drive your identity, you’ll naturally become confident in your ability to make fundamental decisions that sustain—and enhance—who you are.

Idea for Impact: Habits stick when they respond to your sense of identity. Change your identity, change how you want to be seen, and you’ll change your life.

Wondering what to read next?

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Assertiveness, Change Management, Coaching, Discipline, Life Plan, Motivation, Procrastination

Don’t Quit Your Job Until

July 20, 2021 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Before you quit your job, give your employer a chance to address your issues.

Thoughtfully identify what the real concerns are. Is the problem your current job, your supervisor, a coworker, the processes, the whole company? If the job is the problem, consider making a move within your company before you decide to leave.

Time your concerns appropriately. Use your best insight into how and when to talk to your supervisor based on her temperament.

If you don’t tell your supervisor, she can’t fix it. Who knows what’s feasible—a different job description, team, department, schedule? You may just be surprised at how enriched your experience can be once the key issues are addressed.

Don’t jump ship in frustration if you’re likely to run into the same problems with your next employer. It’s easier to tackle frustrations in a familiar environment at your current employer than at a new company, where you’ll be under pressure to learn the ropes and quickly produce results.

Indeed, your supervisor may not be able to fix your issues even if she knows what they are. But unless you give her a chance, you’ll never know. If you can’t work it out, don’t get hung up on whose “fault” it is.

Wondering what to read next?

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  3. How to Improve Your Career Prospects During the COVID-19 Crisis
  4. The Great Resignation, The Great Awakening
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Filed Under: Career Development Tagged With: Career Planning, Job Transitions, Managing the Boss, Work-Life

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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Unless otherwise stated in the individual document, the works above are © Nagesh Belludi under a Creative Commons BY-NC-ND license. You may quote, copy and share them freely, as long as you link back to RightAttitudes.com, don't make money with them, and don't modify the content. Enjoy!