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Decoy Effect: The Sneaky Sales Trick That Turns Shoppers into Spenders

May 23, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Imagine yourself at the movie theater, deciding whether to buy a small popcorn for $5 or a large popcorn for $8. You’re wondering if the extra popcorn is worth the extra money, so you consider the small size. Suddenly, the cashier offers you medium popcorn for $7.50, and you buy it instead of the small one.

However, the medium popcorn is a lure—a true distraction. By introducing it, the theater has made the large popcorn seem like a better value and the small popcorn seem less attractive. This is a classic marketing strategy known as the Decoy Effect, which aims to influence your decision-making.

In essence, the Decoy Effect presents you with two options and then adds a third option designed to make one of the original options more appealing. This can sway your decision-making and lead you to choose the more expensive option.

Studies have shown that framing can influence our decisions, as a well-designed decoy can shift opinions by up to 40%. One well-known example of the decoy effect in action is from The Economist, the influential weekly international news and business publication. Behavioral economist Dan Ariely’s book Predictably Irrational (2008) describes how the magazine offered a digital subscription for $59, a print subscription for $125, and a combined print and online subscription for the same price of $125. The print-only subscription was clearly a decoy, designed to make the combined subscription seem like a better value, and it worked; the presence of the decoy significantly increased the uptake of the combined subscription.

While psychologists are still debating the exact reasons for this cognitive bias, one theory suggests that the decoy provides a straightforward justification for a decision that might otherwise seem arbitrary.

Idea for Impact: If you run a business, you too can use the decoy effect to steer consumers towards certain purchasing decisions that benefit your bottom line. By strategically adding a decoy product to your offerings, you can provide perceived value for your customers while boosting your profits.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, MBA in a Nutshell, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Creativity, Marketing, Persuasion, Psychology, Thought Process

The Longest Holdout: The Shoichi Yokoi Fallacy

May 22, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In 1972, while hunting near the Talofofo River in Guam, two cousins from the village of Talofofo were startled by rustling sounds emanating from the tall reeds. Initially, they assumed it was an animal or a hidden child, but to their surprise, they came face to face with an elderly and disheveled man clutching a shrimp trap. This unexpected encounter took aback the hunters, and after some initial confusion, they captured the man and escorted him back to their makeshift jungle home, about an hour’s walk away. The old man pleaded with the cousins to end his life.

That fugitive turned out to be Shoichi Yokoi, a Japanese soldier. During the latter stages of World War II, Yokoi served in the supply corps of the Japanese army stationed on the island of Guam. In 1944, when General Douglas MacArthur’s troops invaded and reclaimed control of the island, Yokoi retreated into the dense jungle. There, he sought refuge in an underground cave and remained hidden for 28 years, living as a determined survivor under harsh conditions.

Yokoi sustained himself by inhabiting a tunnel-like cave he had carved amidst the thick foliage, relying on a diet of nuts, fruits, shrimp, frogs, and rats. He fashioned his clothing by skillfully weaving tree bark strips and using the moon’s phases to track time. In 1952, he chanced upon a leaflet announcing the war’s end, but he and his fellow soldiers dismissed it as enemy propaganda, choosing not to surrender. Over time, all of Yokoi’s comrades perished due to starvation or illness, or were captured.

Loyalty Without a Glance Can Shroud the Mind in Ignorance

Yokoi remained firmly convinced that his fellow soldiers would eventually come to rescue him, and he clung tenaciously to this belief. Surrender was out of the question, as he later explained, “We Japanese soldiers were taught to choose death over the shame of being taken alive.” (Additionally, stragglers like him believed that returning to Japan was impossible, fearing they would be branded as deserters and face the death penalty.)

In 1972, Yokoi finally returned to Japan, where he was hailed as a national hero. Upon his arrival in Tokyo, he famously declared, “It is with much embarrassment that I have returned alive,” echoing the indoctrination he had received before the war. For the older generation, he symbolized greatness, embodying the prewar values of diligence. However, for the younger generation, he represented an awkward reminder of outdated ideals. Being captured and surviving was deemed cowardly, as the ideal soldier made the ultimate sacrifice for the divine emperor, even at the cost of his own life.

Yokoi’s remarkable story of surviving in the jungle captured the imagination of the Japanese people. The country was undergoing an industrial boom, and many were fascinated by his ability to endure on a meager diet and his resourcefulness in creating clothing from tree bark. Yokoi even returned his army-issued rifle to “the honorable emperor,” expressing his embarrassment at having returned alive rather than dying in service to the emperor. He regretted not having served his majesty to the fullest.

However, Yokoi never quite felt at home in modern society. Before his conscription in 1941, he had been an apprentice tailor, and now, he found himself overwhelmed by the changes that had occurred during his absence. He subsequently led a quiet life as a hermit, becoming a popular television personality and advocating for a simple way of life. He traveled across the country, delivering public lectures criticizing Japan’s “wasteful modern lifestyle” and championing values of thrift and self-reliance. He was deeply admired for his unwavering determination, his spirit of ganbaru (“enduring adversity without giving in,”) and his unwavering commitment to traditional values.

Embrace the Gifts That Doubt Can Bring. Let Enlightenment Take Flight.

Overall, Yokoi spent 27 years in isolation in the jungles of Guam, stubbornly holding onto his identity as a Japanese soldier long after the war had ended. In doing so, he squandered his life by adhering to ideals that held no significance for anyone else, sacrificing his relationships, career, and personal happiness to pursue the Japanese principle of ganbaru, or unwavering perseverance.

There reaches a point where virtue, taken to the extreme, can transform into a vice. Shoichi Yokoi personified this fallacy. We often admire the act of unwavering commitment, but we tend to lose sight of the underlying reasons behind it due to the blinding effects of rigid adherence.

Beware of blind devotion to any ideology that promotes rigid and restrictive beliefs. Do not overestimate the value of your morals beyond their practical utility, and be receptive to changing your perspective when circumstances demand it. This requires reevaluating your priorities and recognizing that what you once cherished may no longer align with your desires or aspirations. When faced with new information or situations, consider the possibility of altering your stance. There is a difference between sticking to your principles and being imprudent.

Wondering what to read next?

  1. To Know Is to Contradict: The Power of Nuanced Thinking
  2. No One Has a Monopoly on Truth
  3. The Problem with People Who Don’t Think They Can Change
  4. The Mere Exposure Effect: Why We Fall for the Most Persistent
  5. Charlie Munger’s Iron Prescription

Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Biases, Mental Models, Persistence, Persuasion, Philosophy, Psychology, Thought Process, Wisdom

Don’t Outsource a Strategic Component of Your Business

May 11, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

The prescription eyeglasses retailer Warby Parker was launched by four drinking buddies at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The founders intended to disrupt a high-profit margin industry by taking out the intermediary.

Selling prescription eyeglasses online (Warby Parker mostly sells via brick-and-mortar today) would also defy skeptics who preferred to see certain things—shoes, diamond rings, cars—in person and were disinclined to get them online. Warby Parker’s incumbent competitors, 39DollarGlasses.com and EyeBuyDirect.com, had sloppy websites. A crucial part of Warby Parker’s startup plan was to start a user-friendly website where shoppers could upload a photograph of themselves and try on glasses virtually.

At first, the founders outsourced the website, resulting in disastrous consequences. In an interview with Fortune magazine (1-Jun-2019,) co-founder & co-CEO David Gilboa reflected on the pitfalls of outsourcing critical business components:

None of us [the founders] was qualified to build the website, so we solicited proposals and got a handful of bids from agencies. We chose the cheapest option, but a few months in, we realized it was a mistake. Their execution wasn’t what they promised. So we ended up firing them.

Now we develop most of the technology we use in-house to ensure we maintain as much control over the customer experience as possible. We’ve developed our website and both of our apps internally.

Idea for Impact: Don’t outsource what you’re supposed to do best.

Outsourcing a core function may give you a short-term uplift, but you’ll fail to create the core expertise within your company. That’s necessary to build a sustainable competitive advantage. The vendor just isn’t as invested in your success.

Building know-how internally is more challenging, but it’ll pay off in the long run. Sure, you may need to tap an outsourced hire for specialized expertise that you lack. But concentrate on developing your core functions in-house. In fact, be as micro-managey as possible in the early days.

Leverage outside help for bookkeeping, legal, and everything else that doesn’t generate a competitive advantage.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models, The Great Innovators Tagged With: Creativity, Delegation, Entrepreneurs, Innovation, Leadership Lessons, Problem Solving

How to … Change Your Life When Nothing Seems to be Going Your Way

May 4, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Recollect what it means to be human: we go through ups, downs, shortcomings, triumphs, losses, confidence, and apprehensions are all just a part of life. While unpleasant, failure is also a common and essential element of life. Bearing failure with equanimity is more likely to help you find success and get what you want.

Next, think about something that’s challenged you in the past and consider how you’re better off for having been through that experience. When you acknowledge you’ve overcome setbacks before, you can recognize that you can—and will—weather this one, too.

Ponder about whatever challenges you presently and see if you can reframe it. Try to perceive it as an opportunity for growth and consider what gifts could come from this experience. Visualizing successful outcomes is the best way to reset or repurpose your goals.

Idea for Impact: Developing resiliency isn’t easy, but excessive rumination and dwelling on past failures for longer than necessary will keep you stuck. When things aren’t going your way, challenge yourself to find any upsides, no matter how small. Find the good in the less-than-ideal. You’re more likely to get unstuck by trying a low-risk baby step forward.

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Filed Under: Living the Good Life, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Adversity, Attitudes, Discipline, Emotions, Mental Models, Motivation, Resilience, Success, Wisdom

Maximize Your Chance Possibilities & Get Lucky

April 27, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi 1 Comment

'Luck Factor' by Richard Wiseman (ISBN 0786869143) British psychologist Richard Wiseman’s Luck Factor (2003) explores what makes some people lucky and others unlucky.

Being lucky is a mindset to bring to life. Lucky people maximize their chances of creating and noticing a lucky opportunity. They listen to their intuition when they get an opportunistic hunch.

The book’s core premise is whether you’re generally lucky or unlucky depends on your attitude—an optimistic mindset is a self-fulfilling prophecy, indeed. Lucky people expect good fortune; they expect good things to happen in their life. When they do have a run of bad luck, they adopt a resilient attitude and somehow turn that into good luck.

Idea for Impact: Lucky people aren’t lucky by sheer accident. To maximize your chances of getting lucky, get more opportunities and feel luckier. Get out there more often, produce more work, and talk to more people. Be open to the world and ready for new opportunities.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Attitudes, Biases, Books for Impact, Creativity, Luck, Risk, Thinking Tools

It Takes Luck as Much as Talent

April 24, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

In The Frontiers of Management (1986,) Peter Drucker writes about how Thomas J. Watson, Sr. emerged as a pioneer in the development of accounting and computing equipment:

Twice in the 1930s [Thomas J. Watson, Sr.] personally was on the verge of bankruptcy. What saved him and spurred IBM sales during the Depression were two New Deal laws: the Social Security Act in 1935 and the Wage-Hours Act of 1937–38. They mandated records of wages paid, hours worked, and overtime earned by employees, in a form in which the employer could not tamper with the records. Overnight they created markets for the tabulating machines and time clocks that Thomas Watson, Sr., had been trying for long years to sell with only moderate success.

Idea for Impact: It’s hard for people who pride themselves on their extraordinary skills to accept that they’re just as lucky as they’re smart.

Luck is primarily the result of identifying opportunities and taking appropriate action. Watson could capitalize on the newly created need for business machines because he had worked in the field for decades. And he gave this kind of luck much credit without feeling that doing so devalued his talent and hard work.

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Filed Under: Business Stories, Mental Models Tagged With: Biases, Entrepreneurs, Humility, Luck, Wisdom

The Problem with Positive Thinking

April 18, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

When positive thinking is seeing bad situations in a favorable light, you can look for the good and make the best of life’s terrible blows. That’s OK.

The problem with positive thinking is the implication that if things don’t go right, you’ve failed yourself. That you’ve not believed in yourself enough. That you should blame yourself because there’s nowhere else to go.

Positive thinking so isn’t a temperament that works when things aren’t going well—that’s the real test as to whether a mindset holds up.

What you need is an attitude that radically embraces reality. It allows you to face the possibilities of negative encounters and not shun away from them. It lets you honestly appraise your circumstances.

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Filed Under: Living the Good Life, Mental Models Tagged With: Attitudes, Emotions, Mindfulness, Resilience, Thinking Tools

The Upsides of Slowing Down

April 17, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'Wait Art and Science of Delay' by Frank Partnoy (ISBN 1610390040) Making faster and faster decisions can look like the proper response in a culture obsessed with speediness and efficiency that bleeds into the reckless and hasty. But as investment banker turned-law educator Frank Partnoy’s Wait: The Art and Science of Delay (2012) argues, while fast thinking—like fast food—hits the spot on occasion, too much speed can, however, be counterproductive.

Today we jump faster and more frequently to firm conclusions. We like to believe there is wisdom in our snap decisions, and sometimes there is. But true wisdom and judgment come from understanding our limitations when it comes to thinking about the future. This is why it is so important for us to think about the relevant time period of our decisions and then ask what is the maximum amount of time we can take within that period to observe and process information about possible outcomes. … The amount of time we take to reflect on decisions will define who we are. … Our ability to think about delay is a gift, a tool we can use to examine our lives. Life might be a race against time, but it is enriched when we rise above our instincts and stop the clock to process and understand what we are doing and why. A wise decision requires reflection, and reflection requires pause.

Time pressure, high stakes, and emotionally charged situations make it more likely that we will deviate from rational decisions and fall back on heuristics—caveman thinking indeed. Mental shortcuts may have their place for helping us to navigate quotidian risks like crossing the road or boiling a kettle. However, for every decision that can be made in a moment, there are many others where a considered and judicious approach may save you from calamity.

Idea for Impact: The next time you feel pressured to make a quick decision in the face of the unexpected, try to slow down, take a breath, and ask yourself whether your natural desire to get on with it needs to be tempered with caution.

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Filed Under: Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Biases, Critical Thinking, Decision-Making, Stress, Thinking Tools, Thought Process

Avoid Being Money-Rich and Time-Poor: Summary of Ashley Whillans’s ‘Time Smart’

April 13, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

Stress and life dissatisfaction are often caused by being chronically “time poor”—having too many things to do and not enough time to do them. We equate time poverty with success and pay the physical and emotional price of rushing around.

'Time Smart' by Ashley Whillans (ISBN 1633698351) Harvard academic Ashley Whillans’s Time Smart: How to Reclaim Your Time and Live a Happier Life (2020) shows that people with more free time are happier, healthier, and more productive than people who work all the time and make more money.

The effects and costs of time poverty are so stark that researchers now compare it to a famine—a severe, drastic shortage of time affecting all of society—that carries many of the attendant negative consequences that a natural disaster produces. … No matter our age, education, or income, we share the same reality: none of us knows how much time we have left. One day, time runs out and tomorrow never comes. … Chasing money is valuable to a point, but it’s an infinite errand. You can always try to get more—and research shows people do that, no matter how much money they have already. Given how precious time is, we should put it first.

Idea for Impact: Develop a time-centric mindset and work fewer hours if necessary. Consider time as currency and become more purposeful, dodging mindless tasks and unfulfilling chores. Ask how much time you will give up for more money or productivity. Money is a powerful tool that can buy you time and amplify your freedom to pursue your values and priorities.

Wondering what to read next?

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  3. How to … Overcome Impact Blindness and Make Decisions with Long-Term Clarity
  4. How to … Tame Your Calendar Before It Tames You
  5. Everything in Life Has an Opportunity Cost

Filed Under: Living the Good Life, Mental Models, Sharpening Your Skills Tagged With: Balance, Discipline, Happiness, Procrastination, Time Management, Work-Life

When Implementing Change, You’ll Encounter These Three Types Of People

April 6, 2023 By Nagesh Belludi Leave a Comment

'Change is like a Slinky' by Hans Finzel (ISBN 1881273687) To successfully make changes in your workplace, you’ll need to have everyone on board. But don’t try to get them all to accept change at once. Not everyone responds to change similarly; some employees will not react well to it initially.

According to Hans Finzel’s Change is Like a Slinky Paperback (2004,) you must anticipate your allies and adversaries. Determine which of these three groups each of your employees belongs to and adapt.

  1. The Innovators and Early Adopters. Some people love the challenge of change for its excitement and the opportunity to spearhead change. These employees can research the topic, develop prototypes, and act as “change ambassadors” to motivate people further down the hierarchy.
  2. The Careful Majority. Most employees will support change once they’re reasonably confident it’ll succeed. Demonstrate to skeptics what the change will represent and how it will benefit them and the company. Acknowledge concerns—both the spoken and unspoken—and the discomfort of being in unfamiliar territory while focusing on what’s within their control. Eventually, the majority will follow the early adopters’ lead.
  3. The Holdouts. A few employees may resist—and even sabotage—change because they feel uncomfortable about it, don’t believe in it, or can’t see any benefits in it for themselves. If their contentions are worth the time and energy to debate and discuss, make a fair effort to gain alignment on perspective and resolution on position, but be firm with your strategic direction. Get key organizational leaders to give these dissenters reasons and opportunities to get on board, but let them know the price if they don’t accept change.

Idea for Impact: The best managers understand that each employee has different skills, sentiments, wants and needs—and work to put each employee in a position to feel valued and contribute.

Wondering what to read next?

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  2. What Knowledge Workers Want Most: Management-by-Exception
  3. Why You Should Celebrate Small Wins
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  5. The Rule of Three

Filed Under: Leading Teams, Managing People, Mental Models Tagged With: Assertiveness, Change Management, Goals, Great Manager, Persuasion, Workplace

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About: Nagesh Belludi [hire] is a St. Petersburg, Florida-based freethinker, investor, and leadership coach. He specializes in helping executives and companies ensure that the overall quality of their decision-making benefits isn’t compromised by a lack of a big-picture understanding.

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